Monday, December17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 17, 2018 9:51 AM PST (17:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:50PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 844 Am Pst Mon Dec 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Very large west swell is at a peak this morning, then gradually decrease this afternoon, but increasing south winds will reach gale force this afternoon. This will be an extended gale event with very high seas and dangerous surf conditions all continuing through Tuesday. Winds briefly diminish Tuesday night but seas will remain high to very high through mid-week. Yet another cold front with south gales is expected on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 171713
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
913 am pst Mon dec 17 2018

Short term Behind a front, low clouds and fog has developed in
many inland valleys this morning. Locally dense freezing fog has
developed in the klamath falls area. Visibilities may be very
limited at times this morning near klamath falls and surrounding
areas with visibilities of a quarter of mile or less occurring.

Slippery conditions are also possible on area roadways. A
freezing fog advisory has been issued this morning for southern
klamath county and northeast siskiyou county for freezing fog.

Please see the npwmfr for details.

Otherwise the main concern today shifts to the next front
approaching the area late today then moving inland on Tuesday.

This is a very moist system with precipitable water values of over
an inch along the coast. Moderate rain is expected to move into
the coast late today and this evening, becoming heavy late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon. Then showers are expected behind
the front into Tuesday night.

Inland areas will see areas of light to moderate precipitation
spread inland this evening through Tuesday morning then widespread
light to moderate precipitation Tuesday afternoon into early
Tuesday evening. Snow levels will rise from around 4500 to 5000
feet this evening to 6000 to 7000 feet Tuesday morning as
precipitation increases inland, except for lower snow levels of
5000 to 5500 feet east of the cascades and in the mount shasta
area. As precipitation becomes widespread inland Tuesday afternoon
and evening, snow levels will peak at around 7000 to 7500 feet
from the cascades west and at around 6000 to 7000 feet east of
the cascades and in the mount shasta area.

Heavy rain is expected along the coast with storm totals of 2 to
5 inches and locally up to 6 inches this evening through Tuesday
evening. Most the rain will fall in a 12 hour period from late
tonight through early Tuesday afternoon for coastal areas. With
the potential for heavy rain in a short period of time over recent
wildfire burn scars, a flash flood watch has been issues for the
areas within the klondike taylor and chetco burn scars. Please see
the ffwmfr for details. Inland amounts will be more variable but
expect moderate to locally heavy precipitation over douglas,
josephine, western siskiyou county, as well as over the southern
oregon cascades and northern klamath. Area rivers and streams are
expected to see rises but no mainstem river flooding is forecast.

Please see the esfmfr for details.

Strong winds will also develop along the coast as this front
pushes into the area. Mondays indicate winds along the coast will
peak late tonight through early Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds
are also expected on Tuesday for some areas west of the cascades,
especially in the southern shasta valley, southern illinois valley
and over the mountains in coos, curry, western douglas and
western josephine counties. High wind warnings and wind advisories
are in place for these areas. East side locations may see strong
winds develop Tuesday afternoon, especially over the mountains and
in the summer lake area. A high wind watch is in effect for
portions of lake, southeast klamath and eastern modoc counties.

Please see the npwmfr for details.

Aviation For the 17 12z tafs... MVFR with rain and snow
showers will linger over lake and modoc counties early this morning.

Otherwise, a weak disturbance has produced a wide range of
conditions, from clear in part of klamath county to ifr stratus in
medford with a ceiling for most of the area. But, it has produced
enough mixing to significantly limit coverage of valley fog. There
will be a brief period of improvement from late morning into early
afternoon though with an increase in south winds ahead of the next
front. The front will bring light to moderate rain to the coast this
afternoon with precipitation and a mix of ifr MVFR spreading across
the area this evening into Tuesday. -dw

Marine Updated 845 am pst Monday 17 december 2018... Very large
long period west swell will peak out this morning, then will
gradually decrease this afternoon. There will be relative break in
the swell tonight into Tuesday, then another heavy swell will arrive
Wednesday. Even with the brief improvement, conditions will still be
dangerous at bar crossings and the surf zone due to strong currents
and breaking waves. Winds will also increase to gales this
afternoon. This will be an extended gale event with very high seas
and dangerous surf conditions all continuing through Tuesday. Winds
briefly diminish Tuesday night but seas will remain high to very
high through mid-week. Yet another cold front with south gales is
expected late Wednesday night into Thursday. The series of fronts is
likely to continue through next weekend. -petrucelli

Prev discussion issued 638 am pst Mon dec 17 2018
discussion...

a trough of low pressure, centered in the mid-levels, is
traversing the forecast area early this morning bringing widely
scattered rain and snow showers. Snow levels are currently between
4,000 and 5,000 feet. Precipitation amounts area-wide have been
two-tenths of an inch or less in the last 6 hours.

Of note, yesterday's strong frontal system did bring some strong
wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph along the coast, in the shasta
valley area, and across portions of the east side. 80 mph on the
squaw peak raws in the siskiyou mountains was the highest gust
recorded in the forecast area yesterday. Precipitation amounts
along and near the coast and in the mount shasta area yesterday
were generally in the 1 to 2 inch range, though the ski bowl mount
shasta avalanche center automated weather station picked up 12
inches of snow via a hefty 2.66 inches of water. Also, we tied a
record high here at the medford airport yesterday with 62 degrees
under southeast downslope winds. The record was last set in 1988.

In the coastal waters, seas peaked on buoy 15 at 26 feet 15
seconds. This means average wave breaker heights were likely up
around 31 feet from around CAPE blanco northward.

Today we'll see south winds increase with the next strong frontal
system that's already streaming high clouds over the coastal
waters. While it will be preceded by some upslope showers through
the day in the coastal mountains, steady rainfall should begin
along the coast late this afternoon into early this evening. A
high wind warning is in effect for a 24 hour period beginning at
4 pm pst today for coastal areas, where gusts 60-80 mph will be
possible. As the frontal system shoves inland tonight through we
expect gusty south and southwest winds to affect some inland
portions of coos, curry, and douglas counties with wind advisory
conditions. The shasta valley is also expected to experience low
end wind advisory conditions in the weed area. East of the
cascades we have a watch in place for high winds across portions
of klamath, lake, and modoc counties because the timing of high
wind potential has shifted to later in time, beginning late
Tuesday morning, and confidence in the strength and coverage of
those winds is uncertain due to changes in the model guidance.

Rainfall amounts still look hefty for the coos and curry counties,
on the order of 2 to 6 inches from 4 pm pst today through 4 am pst
Wednesday morning. However, model guidance did come down a little
bit on rainfall amounts outside of the 12 hour period from 4 am -
4pm pst Tuesday. Thus, adjusted the timing of the flash flood watch
for the klondike and chetco bar burn scar areas to that time, plus a
lag of 6 hours. Snow levels during that time period are expected to
rise from near 5kft up to the 6.5kft-8kft range Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Models did trend a little lower with snow levels during
this time period in the last 24 hours, so we should a little bit of
new snow to buffer the snow pack above 6kft from the rain expected
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Another notable change to the forecast was to increase
precipitation probabilities (pops) and precipitation amounts for
Thursday into Friday morning, as the GFS and ECMWF and ensembles
seem to be settling on the solution of another appreciable cold
front pushing southeastward through the forecast area.

Finally, precipitation probabilities have been increased for
the Saturday through christmas eve time period. Models have been
indicating a clear trend toward continued active weather for that
time period with snow levels in the 4000 to 5500 foot range.

Longer range indicators are currently suggesting cooler and wetter
and than normal conditions through the end of the month and,
possibly continuing into the first week of the new year. Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
orz030-031.

Hazardous seas warning until 1 pm pst this afternoon for orz021.

Freezing fog advisory until 10 am pst this morning for
orz028-029.

High wind warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm pst Tuesday
for orz021-022.

Flash flood watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
orz022-024.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm pst Tuesday for
orz023-024.

High surf warning until 10 pm pst Wednesday for orz021-022.

Ca... High wind watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
caz085.

Freezing fog advisory until 10 am pst this morning for caz084.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm pst Tuesday for
caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm pst Tuesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 1 pm pst this afternoon for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Cc cc cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi76 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 53°F1017.4 hPa
SNTO3 11 mi82 min Calm 41°F 1018 hPa41°F
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi40 min SSE 17 G 20 52°F 53°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi56 minSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds46°F44°F93%1017.8 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
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Mon -- 12:50 AM PST     2.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:51 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:37 AM PST     7.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:24 PM PST     1.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:15 PM PST     5.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.22.53.34.45.66.77.37.46.95.94.73.42.5222.63.44.35.15.45.34.84

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:51 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:32 AM PST     7.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:16 PM PST     2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:09 PM PST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.22.63.44.55.66.67.27.26.75.74.53.32.52.12.22.73.64.55.25.55.34.74

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.