Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday November 19, 2017 9:53 PM PST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 859 Pm Pst Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Southwest seas will continue to rapidly build tonight though early Monday morning. South winds will peak at to near gale force between midnight tonight and Sunrise Monday morning. Steep to very steep seas will continue through Monday morning before becoming less high and steep. Winds are then expected to increase again to gales Monday night or Tuesday morning and remain moderate to strong through Wednesday. Conditions should improve some late in the week as the windy pattern subsides some.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 200451
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
851 pm pst Sun nov 19 2017

Discussion An update was just sent to adjust for lower than
expected snow levels and earlier onset of precipitation. Radar
shows a band of warm frontal precipitation moving across our area
right now. It has already rained at many west side locations south
of the umpqua divide, and despite a cold day and many valley
locations still in the 30s, it does not appear there is any
freezing rain. Temperatures should stay stagnant or warm through
the night, so I don't foresee any freezing rain problems in the
valleys. That said, it will be monitored closely.

Only the high resolution models seem to have any idea of this
precipitation, and they show a break behind this first wave
followed by additional bands overnight. Pops were thus raised to
100 over the entire west side, and into the categorical range
(80%+) over portions of the east side. The other change was to
lower snow levels in the cascades and part of the siskiyous.

Webcams show it snowing and sticking at diamond lake and there
appear to be some flakes mixed in even as low as union creek.

Further south, the kmax radar on mt. Ashland shows an outside
temperature of -3c, so the snow level is below the radar as well.

All guidance continues to show snow levels rising rapidly
overnight, but i've erred on the side of caution and had them
rising more slowly in these areas. It looks like snow amounts
should be light around diamond lake before the change over to rain
tonight, but up at crater lake we could see several inches
overnight. These amounts aren't advisory-worthy, but any travelers
to the high cascades north of highway 140 will encounter snow at
least early tonight. -wright

Aviation 20 00z TAF cycle... A warm front will move onshore
tonight through Monday morning bringing low ceilings and,
eventually increasing winds across the forecast area. As this
transition occurs there will be the potential of low level wind
shear at the primary airfields, through as late as 19z at kmfr.

Ifr low clouds remaining in some of the valleys west of the cascades
this evening are likely to lift some late tonight, particularly in
the medford area. Elsewhere,VFR CIGS will continue early this
evening. The front will bring rain to the coast this evening with
gradually lowering ceilings and increasing mountain obscurations.

Exposed areas at the coast will become windy as the front moves
inland, and wind shear is a possibility at north bend with strong
southwest winds aloft and lighter south to southeast winds at the
surface.

Mountain obscuration and MVFR ifr ceilings will spread further
inland early Monday morning, affecting most areas by mid-morning on
Monday. Btl sk

Prev discussion issued 439 pm pst Sun nov 19 2017
short term... Another day of stubborn fog in the rogue valley and
this is keeping temperatures much cooler than the rest of the
forecast area. It's difficult to discern the extent of the fog
from satellite because of the relatively thick layer of cirrus
clouds streaming over the area. Near term guidance is suggesting
we may break out of the low clouds very briefly before the weather
transitions to a more unstable pattern.

A strong front currently knocking on the door of the offshore waters
will move into the area overnight. Strong, gusty winds and heavy
rain will accompany this front through Monday evening. Wind
advisories are in place for the traditionally more windy locations
including the shasta valley and summer lake area in lake county.

This also includes the higher elevations of lake and modoc counties
and details can be found at npwmfr. Winds will increase across the
rest of the forecast area and this should help improve mixing and
hopefully scour out any remaining fog and low clouds this evening.

The bigger impact from this front will be the moderate to heavy rain
associated with it. This front will tap into tropical moisture and
the fire hose will be aimed at the southern oregon coast through
early Tuesday morning. Moderate to heavy rain will start at the
coast late this evening, gradually moving inland overnight into
Monday morning. Given the tropical nature of the moisture, snow
levels will rise to over 8,000 feet by early Monday morning.

However, there will be a very brief period late tonight into very
early Monday morning of a very slight chance of a mix of freezing
rain before warmer air makes it to the surface. Confidence was not
high enough to put into the forecast, but it is worth keeping an eye
on by future shifts. If it were to occur, the best chance would be
in the valleys east of the cascades, but again confidence is not
high and it will likely warm up before any precipitation begins.

With the fire hose aimed at the southern oregon coast, rainfall
rates and totals will be a concern for the chetco bar burn scar.

Some of the high-res guidance is suggesting 0.75" to 1" in 3 hours
overnight tonight. Current forecast has a 24 hour total of 3 to 4
inches across curry county with up to 5 inches possible in the
higher terrain. Because of this, have issued a flash flood watch for
the chetco bar burn scar. Details on this can be found at ffamfr.

Currently, we aren't expected any flooding on mainstem rivers, but
small stream rises expected.

By Tuesday, the ridge centered just to the east amplifies and this
will push the focus of the moisture north of the area. Rain will
taper off by the afternoon for most of the area. The exception will
be along the coast where southwest flow will keep the moisture
flowing into the coastal mountains. Upslope flow will maintain rain
for these areas through Wednesday evening while the rest of the
forecast area should remain mostly dry. Winds on Tuesday look to be
breezy and gusty, similar to what is expected this afternoon and
tonight, and this may warrant another round of wind headlines. As
for snow levels, the amplifying ridge will push them up to around
10,000 feet. Because of this, there shouldn't be any snow impacts in
the short term. Br-y
long term... Thursday through Sunday... The area will be
located between a ridge centered to the east and an upper trough
offshore through the week. Meanwhile a couple fronts will move into
ridge and bring periods of unsettled weather on Thursday and next
weekend. However, due to the influence of the ridge, expect snow
levels to remain elevated and temperatures to be warmer than normal
through the period.

Models have trended wetter for thanksgiving day and show a front
moving across the area and bringing areas of moderate rain. Elevated
snow levels of around 9000 ft or more are expected Thursday, with
snow levels lowering behind the front to 6500 ft late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Gusty south winds are expected over the
mountains and in the shasta valley ahead of this front on Thursday.

The front is forecast to move eastward and out of the area Friday
morning with some lingering light scattered showers.

The ridge is expected to strengthen over the region during the day
Friday. A brief period of mainly dry weather is possible Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. However, models then show another
disturbance and front moving into the area from the west-southwest
Friday night and Saturday. This front may bring precipitation to the
area as early as Friday night. Snow levels are expected to rise to
around 7000 to 8000 feet as precipitation spreads into the area.

Models indicate this front will be slow to move inland and show it
stalling near the coast Saturday then gradually moving inland
Sunday. -cc
marine... Updated 200 pm pst Sunday 19 november 2017... South winds
are increasing ahead of the next front. Gales and very steep seas
are likely late this afternoon but the very steep seas will take
until tonight to reach areas from gold beach southward. South
winds are expected to lower below gales on Monday but will likely
increase again to gales Monday night or Tuesday morning and remain
moderate to strong through Wednesday. Conditions should improve
some late in the week as the windy pattern subsides some. Sk

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory until 4 pm pst Monday for orz030-031.

Flash flood watch from 4 am pst Monday through Monday evening
for orz022-024.

Ca... Wind advisory until 4 pm pst Monday for caz085.

Wind advisory until 10 pm pst Monday for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning until 7 am pst Monday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 4 am pst Tuesday for
pzz350-356-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 7 am Monday to 4 am pst Tuesday for
pzz370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi78 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 49°F1009.9 hPa
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi61 min 54°F14 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi54 min SSE 28 G 33 53°F 51°F1011 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi58 minS 710.00 miOvercast53°F42°F66%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Coos Bay
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Mon -- 02:48 AM PST     6.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:05 AM PST     2.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:57 PM PST     7.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:47 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:48 PM PST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
45.46.36.565.143.12.733.95.26.47.37.77.36.14.52.71.10-0.20.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Empire
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM PST     5.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM PST     2.75 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:08 PM PST     6.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:47 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:10 PM PST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.65.55.85.64.943.32.82.83.54.55.66.56.96.65.84.42.81.30.2-0.2012.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.