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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 908 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds and nw 2 ft at 11 seconds. Tonight - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds and nw 2 ft at 11 seconds. Tue - N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Tue night - W wind around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 6 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of rain. Wed - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 6 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 7 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Thu - NE wind around 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft, subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 5 seconds, nw 6 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 4 seconds, nw 4 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Fri - SW wind around 5 kt, veering to nw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 4 seconds, nw 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Fri night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 4 seconds and nw 5 ft at 8 seconds.

PZZ300 908 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A strong thermal trough along the coast will continue to produce north gales and very steep wind driven seas south of cape blanco through this evening. Conditions will be less severe but still hazardous to small craft north of cape blanco. Winds will decrease this evening with generally quiet conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

FXUS66 KMFR 210553 AAA AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1053 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Updated Aviation discussions

AVIATION
21/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon. Guidance shows some low clouds moving along and just off the coast, north of Cape Blanco later tonight, but it's not expected to have an impact on flight conditions. Breezy winds are expected at the terminals Tuesday afternoon and early evening, but winds speeds should be less than they were earlier this afternoon.
MVFR and IFR ceilings and areas of MVFR visibilities are expected to develop along the coast north of Cape Blanco early Tuesday evening.
These conditions are expected to become widespread along the southern Oregon coast and into the Umpqua basin by late Tuesday evening. -CC



MARINE
Updated 800 PM Monday, May 20, 2024...North gales and very steep, wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco will continue through this evening. Model guidance continues to suggest periods of off-and-on gales south of Cape Blanco, and a Gale Warning remains in place for the areas where these gales are expected to surface.
Conditions will be relatively less severe north of Cape Blanco, but still hazardous to small craft with breezy north winds and steep seas.

Winds will diminish overnight tonight, then an area of low pressure approaching from the north will disrupt the thermal trough on Tuesday with winds and waves diminishing. Moderate winds will likely continue into Wednesday with northwest swell gradually increasing Wednesday afternoon. -Schaaf/Petrucelli

SHORT TERM

A lot of fair weather cumulus remains over eastern Oregon this afternoon with some lingering moisture across the region. As for later tonight, high pressure will build as a subsidence inversion develops. There is a low potential for fog along the Central Oregon coast and into the Umpqua Valley tonight. One can see dewpoints dropping as we mix out, so there isn't a whole lot of moisture in the boundary layer.

In addition, temperatures will be on the cool side yet again as lows fall into the lower 40's and even upper 30's in some valleys. There are indeed some cooler spots in the forecast area that will be in the lower 30s. Those areas will probably see some patchy frost tonight, but regions west of the Cascades on average should steer clear of widespread frost or damaging freeze.

Heading into Tuesday, temperatures will continue to trend warmer with high pressure in control. Highs will trend about 5 degrees higher farther inland with smaller trends along the coast. Other than some breezy northwest winds, The weather on Tuesday will remain fairly quiet before deeper northwest flow develops ahead of the next upper level wave. High and mid level clouds will be on the increase by Tuesday evening. The NBM also brings increasing PoP chances to Coos, Douglas, and northern Lake and Klamath Counties as this next wave approaches other locations farther to the south should remain relatively drier into Wednesday.

Another thing that stood out was the strength of winds Wednesday afternoon east of the Cascades. Forecast soundings show deep mixing all the way up top 700 mb as this low approaches with dry adiabatic lapse rates, which should really aid in momentum transfer. Soundings suggests that there is a 50% chance for wind gusts up to 45 mph over certain high terrain locations. Windy spots like Summer Lake and highway 31 could see wind gusts impact those locations Wednesday afternoon.

-Smith

LONG TERM

The longer term starts out with a cold front moving through Tuesday night as an upper level wave departs the region. The best chances for rain remain outside of the forecast area or in the extreme northern portions of Douglas County. There aren't many weather impacts that we see on Wednesday before high pressure begins to build on Thursday.

Another wave arriving Friday appears to hitting northern Oregon and washington instead of southern Oregon. The result appears to be a higher probability of drier weather in addition to temperatures. There are still likely some ensemble members choosing a more southern track with a very low chance of precipitation within southern Oregon and northern California on Friday. However, that seems like the least likely scenario at this point in time.

The last topic worth noting is temperatures trending warmer towards the start of next week. Ensembles show 850 mb temperatures taking a notable path higher and this can be seen in next Monday's and Tuesday's high temperature forecast. The region should see highs in the lower 80's with more late Spring like weather.



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 370.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

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