Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunkport, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:43PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:21 AM EST (06:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 943 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from 8 am est Thursday through Thursday evening...
Overnight..SW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain late this evening, then rain likely.
Thu..S winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Light freezing spray after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of snow and rain showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ100 943 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Southerly winds will be on the increase tonight before low pressure passes west of the waters on Thursday. A cold front will sweep across the waters Thursday evening. Weak low pressure will approach from the west Friday with high pressure to follow Saturday. Another low will track through southeast canada on Sunday, before sweeping an arctic front across the region Sunday night. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunkport, ME
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location: 43.37, -70.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 240248
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
948 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
The low will drag a trailing cold front across the area on
Thursday as it passes by to our north and west. Weak low
pressure will approach from the west Friday, before crossing the
region Friday night. A weak ridge of high pressure will pass
over the region Saturday. Low pressure will track through
southeastern canada Sunday, before a cold front sweeps across
the region Monday. High pressure will follow on Tuesday. Yet
another area of low pressure will pass by to our north and west
Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
945 pm update... Have extended a portion of the advisory in me
until 3 am as low level cold air is going to tough to budge for
awhile. In addition, southwestern nh is beginning to warm up a
little more, so made the expiration a little sooner (3 am)
there. Otherwise, forecast largely unchanged.

515 pm update... Have added portions of interior southern me and
belknap county nh to the winter weather advisory until
midnight. Temperatures on many mesonet stations still hovering a
couple degrees either side of 30 at this time with a
intermittent light rain beginning to fall. It should warm up
enough by midnight to mitigate the threat.

Previously...

a complex mixed precipitation event will impact the region
tonight into tomorrow.

Low pressure currently over michigan will move northeastwards up the
st. Lawrence river valley. Ahead of the low pressure a warm front is
lifting through the region and warm air is already streaming in
aloft with higher elevation stations already well above freezing.

The southerly flow is also being reflected at the surface through
the coastal plain and foothills with a steady increase in both
temperatures and south winds. Some areas of the foothills remain
below freezing, as does the road surface temperatures and for this
reason have left light icing in the forecast through evening
and a winter weather advisory remains in place. Meanwhile north
of the notches the mountain valleys remain in an entirely
different regime. Berlin, rangeley, and jackman are barely
pushing 20f with the cold pool holding on tight. Have tried to
account for this temperature in the overnight trends with the
mountain valleys holding onto the cold air well into the morning
hours tomorrow. With this increased below freezing time comes
an increased risk for freezing rain and have extended the winter
weather advisory through mid morning to account for it. Further
south the foothills will likely rise a bit faster as they are
exposed tot he southerly flow and the advisory will end around
daybreak there.

Across the southern portion of the area the warm air moving over
the existing snowpack will lead to fog which may become dense.

Will need to monitor conditions for a potential dense fog
advisory overnight.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Tomorrow expect the heavier precipitation to move into the
region as we remain in the warm sector of the cyclone. A very
impressive low level jet will move through midday ahead of a
cold front. While winds may exceed 65kts at just a few thousand
feet getting that wind to the surface may be difficult with the
surface based inversion expected to be in place. The most likely
location for stronger winds will be along the coast where the
temperatures are warmest and the southerly winds can accelerate
over the waters and thus a wind advisory has been issued for
this area. Additionally heavier precipitation along the front
may also help to mix down a few gusts to 40-45mph during the
middle of the day.

Temperatures will be much warmer than the past week but have
not been as bullish as some guidance would suggest. With the
south flow moving over 40 degree water have kept highs east of
portland in the mid 40s with only southern new hampshire
reaching 50f.

Additionally the warm temperatures over a cold snowpack will
lead to widespread fog and a dense fog advisory may be needed
for tomorrow evening. A cold front will sweep through the region
late tomorrow night changing precipitation back over to snow
before coming to and end.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Cyclonic flow aloft continues over the region on Friday with a
trough of low pressure approaching the region. This will allow
for mainly mountain snow showers over the region. As the
northwest flow increases with the passage of a secondary trough,
upslope snow showers will develop Friday night across the higher
terrain.

Cold, but mainly dry conditions will follow on Saturday.

Moisture will enter a weak ridge of high pressure, so clouds
will be over the region. Mainly cloud conditions will continue
Sunday as low pressure approaches from the west.

This area of low pressure will pass well north and west of the
region Sunday night, dragging an arctic front across the region.

This will trigger more scattered snow showers, mainly in the
mountains. Cold conditions will return to the region Monday on
gusty westerly winds.

Yet another area of low pressure will approach from the west
Tuesday, before passing through southeast canada Tuesday night.

This system will bring another front to the region, this time
with more moisture than the preceding frontal passages. Any
snow will change to mixed precipitation from south to north late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday as 12z model guidance
suggests warm air will move poleward during this period across
western maine and new hampshire. More arctic air to follow on
Thursday.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Short term... Expect conditions to deteriorate to ifr overnight
tonight with fzra moving in for the north and ra moving in from
the south. Winds will increase out of the south tomorrow with
gusty winds along the coast reaching 30kts. Aloft a very strong
llj will result in llws at all sites through the day on
Thursday.

Long term... Scattered MVFR conditions in a few mountain snow
showers on Friday and again on Sunday. Areas of ifr conditions
developing Tuesday afternoon and continuing into early
Wednesday.

Marine
Short term... Increasing southerly flow will reach storm force
on the eastern waters as a very strong low level jet moves
through the region. Have increased seas to 17-19ft along the
outermost waters. In the bays and further west have left gales
as the core of the jet will pass to the east however a few gusts
to storm force are possible.

Long term... Gusty northwest winds and SCA conditions will be
possible Friday night and again on Monday. A strong southerly
gale may develop Tuesday night with gusty westerly winds to
follow on Wednesday.

Hydrology
With a storm total precipitation amount just over an inch across
southern new hampshire do not expect any widespread flooding
concerns. A few rivers in this region may approach action stage.

Additionally urban nuisance flooding due to frozen and clogged
drains and culverts may also occur.

With the warmer temperatures and rainfall will have to keep a
close eye on the rivers for any potential ice jams. Due to the
significant snowpack expect most of the rainfall to be absorbed
and not runoff and this combined with the fairly brief period of
warmth should limit river rises and ice jam potential however
the more ice jam prone locations will need to be monitored.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tides will continue on Thursday. High water
levels will combine with building seas to possibly produce beach
erosion and splash-over near the time of the early afternoon
high tide. A coastal flood statement has been issued for early
Thursday afternoon.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Thursday for mez012>014-
020>022.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Thursday for mez018-019.

Wind advisory from 8 am to 9 pm est Thursday for mez023>028.

Winter weather advisory until noon est Thursday for mez007>009.

Nh... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Thursday for nhz001>006.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am est Thursday for nhz007-009-
011.

Wind advisory from 8 am to 9 pm est Thursday for nhz014.

Marine... Gale warning from 8 am to 9 pm est Thursday for anz151-153-154.

Storm warning from 8 am to 9 pm est Thursday for anz150-152.

Near term... Ekster
short term... Curtis
long term... Cannon curtis
aviation... Cannon curtis
marine... Cannon curtis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 7 mi82 min SSW 5.1 41°F 35°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 8 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 8 42°F 37°F1012.2 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 13 mi78 min SSW 14 G 16 42°F 41°F4 ft1011.8 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 19 mi32 min SW 12 G 14 41°F 38°F5 ft1011.5 hPa (-1.5)39°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 22 mi52 min 40°F 35°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi97 min SW 5.1 43°F 1013 hPa37°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 30 mi82 min SSW 21 G 22 44°F 1012.2 hPa (-2.2)41°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi44 min 42°F5 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME14 mi26 minSSW 67.00 miLight Rain39°F34°F82%1012.3 hPa
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME21 mi31 minS 610.00 miOvercast41°F33°F73%1012 hPa

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS456SW7SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Porpoise, Maine
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Cape Porpoise
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Thu -- 01:16 AM EST     9.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:30 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:32 PM EST     10.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EST     -1.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.89.89.585.42.60.3-0.8-0.613.66.69.110.410.59.26.83.80.9-1-1.5-0.71.34.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wood Island Harbor, Maine
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Wood Island Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM EST     9.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     10.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:36 PM EST     -1.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.29.99.47.64.82-0.1-0.9-0.21.64.47.39.510.710.58.96.33.10.3-1.3-1.5-0.324.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.