Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albion, NY
May 7, 2024 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 4:25 AM Moonset 7:15 PM |
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 408 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers late this evening. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 080233 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1033 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/
Overnight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the warm sector will impinge upon the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. Available forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of some showers and some embedded thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight...though recent radar and observational trends suggest that this will probably occur a little more slowly than previously thought as the convection to our west runs into a drier and more stable airmass...with the leading line of showers struggling to hold together as it entered far western New York over the last 1-2 hours. While conditions here will be nowhere near as unstable as what has been experienced upstream...enough elevated instability should be in place to support a few embedded garden- variety thunderstorms...especially during the first half of the night. Any storms we do see could produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving along quickly enough to prevent any real flooding concerns.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.
Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front will push across the region overnight and early Wednesday morning...bringing a rough 3-4 hour period of some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to most locations. As this occurs...mainly VFR conditions initially will tend to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (mainly in lower ceilings) as the lower levels become increasingly saturated due to rainfall and the advection of greater lower level moisture into our region from the southwest.
Very late tonight and into early Wednesday morning some patchy fog and/or low stratus still appears to be a distinct possibility in the vicinity of KBUF/KART as the low level flow veers to southwesterly and off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Any fog/stratus that forms should then dissipate during the mid to late morning hours
After that time
mainly VFR conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario through the rest of the period with just a low-end chance of a few more widely scattered afternoon showers/storms along a developing low-level convergence zone just south of that lake.
Meanwhile...areas east of Lake Ontario should see another round of showers/storms and associated lower-end VFR to MVFR conditions develop during the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate ENE winds will produce choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester through the first half of tonight...however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1033 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/
Overnight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the warm sector will impinge upon the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. Available forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of some showers and some embedded thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight...though recent radar and observational trends suggest that this will probably occur a little more slowly than previously thought as the convection to our west runs into a drier and more stable airmass...with the leading line of showers struggling to hold together as it entered far western New York over the last 1-2 hours. While conditions here will be nowhere near as unstable as what has been experienced upstream...enough elevated instability should be in place to support a few embedded garden- variety thunderstorms...especially during the first half of the night. Any storms we do see could produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving along quickly enough to prevent any real flooding concerns.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.
Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front will push across the region overnight and early Wednesday morning...bringing a rough 3-4 hour period of some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to most locations. As this occurs...mainly VFR conditions initially will tend to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (mainly in lower ceilings) as the lower levels become increasingly saturated due to rainfall and the advection of greater lower level moisture into our region from the southwest.
Very late tonight and into early Wednesday morning some patchy fog and/or low stratus still appears to be a distinct possibility in the vicinity of KBUF/KART as the low level flow veers to southwesterly and off the cooler waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Any fog/stratus that forms should then dissipate during the mid to late morning hours
After that time
mainly VFR conditions are expected south of Lake Ontario through the rest of the period with just a low-end chance of a few more widely scattered afternoon showers/storms along a developing low-level convergence zone just south of that lake.
Meanwhile...areas east of Lake Ontario should see another round of showers/storms and associated lower-end VFR to MVFR conditions develop during the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate ENE winds will produce choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester through the first half of tonight...however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 28 mi | 35 min | ESE 6G | 62°F | 29.69 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 31 mi | 47 min | 55°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 32 mi | 35 min | SE 1.9G | 59°F | 29.72 | |||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 47 mi | 35 min | 0G | 57°F | 29.66 | |||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 48 mi | 47 min | 64°F | 29.67 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGVQ GENESEE COUNTY,NY | 24 sm | 39 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 57°F | 45°F | 63% | 29.70 |
Buffalo, NY,
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