Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coos Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:43PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:10 AM PST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:06AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 300 Am Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..NE wind 10 kt...veering to E in the morning, then... Becoming N 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 15 seconds...subsiding to W 6 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and W 3 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sat..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. SWell W 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 5 kt...veering to se after midnight. Cape arago southward, ne wind 10 kt...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft... Shifting to the nw 5 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW wind 5 kt...backing to sw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Mon..E wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the evening, then...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Tue..S wind 10 kt...rising to 20 kt in the afternoon, then... Rising to 25 kt in the evening...becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft...building to 5 ft in the afternoon, then... Building to 7 ft in the evening...subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. NW swell 9 ft...building to W 13 ft.
PZZ300 300 Am Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front will bring increasing northerly winds into this evening. Winds will be strongest south of cape blanco but at moderate strength across the waters this afternoon and evening. Winds weaken slightly overnight. High pressure offshore and a coastal thermal trough will develop on Saturday. The result will be weakening winds north of cape blanco but gusty north winds south of cape blanco will be strongest south of gold beach into Sunday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coos Bay city, OR
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location: 43.38, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 151149
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
349 am pst Fri dec 15 2017

Discussion
Latest infrared satellite imagery shows the front is on it's way
and should be on shore around 18z or so. Nothing really has
changed from previous model runs as this trough is expected to
move through rather quickly and destabilize the air mass. In
general, most areas in oregon should see a few hundreths of
precipitation, whereas isolated areas on the cascades, such as
crater lake, could see up to .2 inches of precipitation, which
should translate to around 1 - 2 inches of snow for elevations
above 6500 feet.

The other component, which has probably been talked about in
previous discussions is a higher mixing height during Friday
evening. This should 'air' out the valley and allow the pollution
to move eastward with the trough. The rain should help clean
things up a bit too.

The day shift also noted that cold air trapped in the valleys
ahead of the cold front could produce isolated freezing rain in
some areas. My argument against that is that most of the
precipitation is expected to hit the valleys around the 21z to 00z
time range. By then, temperatures should be on their way up even
with the fog. Roseburg has been hitting 36 degrees around 21z for
the last couple of days.

After this trough, a dirty ridge builds in with a rather active
pattern to the north near washington through the weekend. The
mixing should be very good Saturday, but deteriorate Sunday. Some
thermal troughing can be seen on Sunday, and the chetco effect
will be ongoing with the off shore winds. So highs near 60 can be
expected near the brookings area Sunday and Monday afternoon.

Another system is expected around Wednesday. The ECMWF and gfs
are in pretty good agreement on the wave location and progression
during this time with a few minor disagreements with precipitation
intensity, which is standard this far out. This trough is a bit
wetter and and cooler than what we've seen for the last month. In
general snow levels during the cold front and trough passage will
be around 4500 feet, which is producing roughly 3-6 inches of snow
along the cascades and 1-2 inches east of the cascades at this
time. After front passage, snow levels will fall to 2500 feet.

Also, 700mb winds on the east side are showing 70 knots near
summer lake, so a wind advisory is possible if the system keeps
it's forecasted strength.

-smith

Aviation 15 06z TAF cycle... Going with a persistence forecast
until the front moves into the coast in the morning, current lifr
conditions are expected to continue through most of the TAF period
for portions of the umpqua basin, including krbg, and the lower
portions of the rogue valley around grants pass. Lifr conditions at
kmfr are expected to return around sunrise.

Vfr conditions will prevail elsewhere, including the east side,
coast, and coastal waters. Similar fog coverage and duration is
expected tonight into Friday morning with a similar large-scale
pattern persisting. Fog coverage and duration is expected to be less
Friday night and Saturday morning as a weak cold front moves
through the area. Sven

Marine Updated 300 am pst Friday 15 dec 2017... A cold front
will bring increasing northerly winds into this evening. Winds will
be strongest south of CAPE blanco but at moderate strength across
the waters this afternoon and evening. Winds weaken slightly
overnight. High pressure offshore and a coastal thermal trough will
develop on Saturday. The result will be weakening winds north of
cape blanco but gusty north winds south of CAPE blanco. The winds
will be strongest south of gold beach late tonight into early Sunday
morning. North winds will subside Sunday into Monday ahead of a
stronger cold front that is due to arrive late Tuesday. Southerly
winds will develop on Tuesday with seas becoming high and rising
into Wednesday. But, confidence remains low to moderate regarding
the track and strength of the front, and thus also the strength of
winds. -dw

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 10 am pst this morning for
orz023-024-026-029>031.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am pst Sunday
for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 4 am pst early
this morning for pzz370-376.

Czs dw mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 7 mi40 min SSE 1 G 1.9 50°F1024.8 hPa
46260 15 mi40 min 53°F7 ft
46261 26 mi40 min 52°F7 ft
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 32 mi47 min 52°F8 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi40 min NW 9.9 G 13 48°F 52°F1023.8 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR4 mi14 minSE 710.00 miFair38°F36°F93%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3W4CalmNW3W4CalmW6SE3SE5S3CalmSE3SE4CalmSE4SE7SE3SE4SE7SE4SE7
1 day agoSE3CalmCalmSE5N3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmSW3Calm--E3CalmCalmW3SE5SE8
2 days agoSE7SE4SE7SE7S6NE4NE3NW4W3N3SE4CalmSE4CalmCalmSE4--N4S6CalmS3SE3SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Coos Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:05 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:05 AM PST     2.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:16 AM PST     7.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:41 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:07 PM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.64.83.82.92.52.83.74.96.27.37.97.76.85.33.61.90.60.10.41.32.74.15.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:47 AM PST     2.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:05 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:55 AM PST     8.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:50 PM PST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:17 PM PST     6.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.54.63.732.83.24.25.66.97.88.17.76.54.831.40.300.61.73.34.75.96.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.