Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coos Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 12:10 PM PST (20:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 846 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm pst this afternoon through Thursday morning...
Today..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 9 seconds and S 1 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Cape arago southward, S wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. W swell 3 ft at 13 seconds...building to 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft. Mixed swell W 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds and W 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Mixed swell W 6 to 7 ft and S 4 to 5 ft. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Thu..S wind 20 to 25 kt...rising to gales 45 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft...building to 11 to 12 ft in the afternoon. W swell 7 ft. Showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. Mixed swell sw 10 ft and nw 7 to 8 ft. Rain.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to W in the evening, then... Becoming nw 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 7 ft...subsiding to 3 ft. Mixed swell sw 8 to 9 ft and nw 8 ft.
Sat..SE wind 10 kt...veering to s. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
PZZ300 846 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds will remain light this morning then gradually increase this afternoon. Then south winds will increase this evening through Wednesday as the first in a series of fronts moves over the area. Periods of heavy rain, strong southerly winds, and choppy wind driven seas combined with moderate swell are expected through Saturday. The strongest front is expected Thursday, with southerly gales possible and very steep hazardous seas, which will peak Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Seas remain elevated Friday and Saturday. A break in the weather Saturday night into Sunday will lead to improved conditions Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coos Bay city, OR
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location: 43.38, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201736 cca
afdmfr
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service medford or
936 am pst Tue nov 20 2018

Discussion Today will be the last quiet day weather-wise across
the CWA for at least a little while. So, if you're traveling,
today is the best day to do it. We've been stuck in a pattern of
strong ridging along the west coast for the better part of a
month. It's been almost 3 weeks since we've had measurable
rainfall here in medford and some parts of our area, like alturas,
haven't see measurable rain since early october. Of course,
coastal areas have had a little rainfall, but not nearly what is
to be expected for this time of year.

This will begin to change tonight as a frontal system offshore
moves in. This will bring a strengthening pressure gradient, so
areas that typically get some wind (coast, east side) and also
south to north oriented valleys (shasta) will have periods of
gusty winds tonight into Wednesday. Air stagnation and hazy skies
will no longer be an issue. Since upper level winds are more less
aligned with the rogue valley too, expect some wind to surface at
least at the south end of the valley tonight into Wednesday, with
potential breezy conditions for a few hours elsewhere across the
valley Wednesday. Rainfall will push onshore late this evening and
overnight, then spread inland Wednesday. Steadiest precipitation
will be along the coast, especially south of CAPE blanco... And
also in the mount shasta region due to a stronger upslope flow.

Snow levels will be generally near or above pass level, but some
snow will accumulate in the mountains above about 5500 feet.

Expect snow levels to be a bit lower too near mount shasta, but
mostly above 4500 feet. We'll still get some precipitation in the
valleys west of the cascades, but downslope flow off the siskiyous
will likely keep amounts light here. Even without significant snow
expected, since this is the first precipitation on roadways in a
while, roads are likely to be quite slick. So, slow down and make
sure you reach your destination!
a stronger system will move in from the pacific on thanksgiving
day followed quickly by another one Thursday night into Friday.

These two systems will have even stronger winds and bring more
significant precipitation. It should be noted that snow levels may
lower for some snow around 3500 feet Friday night into Saturday
morning, which could affect the pass at siskiyou summit. But,
precipitation will be winding down and amounts, if any, will be
light. We'll be looking into potential high wind watches for
portions of the area for Thursday and Friday and if any of the
area burn scars are susceptible to flash flooding debris flows.

-spilde

Aviation For the 20 12z tafs... .Ifr CIGS vsbys in coastal stratus
lingers just off the coast. It looks to remain just offshore through
this morning. Lifr conditions are present in the umpqua basin,
illinois valley and grants pass areas and will persist through this
morning.VFR conditions will persist elsewhere.

Beyond this afternoon, the weather will be transitioning to a more
active pattern. Southerly winds aloft will increase this evening,
surfacing in the shasta valley as well as in the southern end of the
rogue valley. Strong gusty south winds are expected in the shasta
valley this evening and tonight, continuing into Wednesday.

With a series of fronts moving through the area, expect periods of
heavy rain, gusty winds, and lower flight conditions as multiple
fronts move through the pacnw over the next few days. -cc

Marine Updated 200 am pst Tuesday 20 november 2018... Calm
conditions are expect this morning. Then expect a chance to an
active pattern late this afternoon through Saturday, with periods of
heavy rain, strong southerly winds and choppy wind driven seas
combined with moderate swell.

Today south winds will gradually increase ahead of front. Small
craft advisory level winds and seas will develop late this afternoon
into tonight, continuing on Wednesday as a front moves over the
area. Seas will peak Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with
very steep hazardous seas expected to develop, mainly beyond 5 nm
from shore, and continued steep small craft advisory level
conditions elsewhere.

Another, stronger front is expected Thursday. Models have trended
toward an earlier arrival of this front, and have maintained
sustained gales over much of the waters. Have extended the gale
watch to an earlier time Thursday morning as a result. Also, models
show a coastal jet forming from CAPE blanco north, so it's possible
for some isolated storm force gusts in the northern outer waters
late Thursday morning. Seas will peak Thursday afternoon and evening
at around 14 to 15 feet. Winds will diminish Thursday night, but
seas will remain elevated well into Saturday night. A break in the
weather is expected Saturday into Sunday, with improved conditions
expected Sunday. -cc

Prev discussion issued 300 am pst Tue nov 20 2018
discussion... 20 00z nam GFS ec in.

A long wave ridge over the western u.S. Is now breaking down and
moving off to the east. This will open the storm door at last, and
the upstream long wave trough axis will move to 130w Wednesday.

However, short waves diving down the backside of the trough will
slow its progress. Those short waves will eject from the trough
and move onshore Wednesday into Friday.

The initial concern is ongoing dry conditions. With vegetation at
record dry levels for this time of year, there is heightened
concern about dangerous burning conditions, especially in areas
that will become breezy starting this afternoon like the shasta
valley and portions of the east side. The winds won't start up
over the west side until Wednesday, so the air stagnation advisory
will continue through Tuesday night for the west side valleys.

After that, increasing winds and some instability will mix out the
stagnant air.

The next chance of precipitation over the area will develop along
the coast Tuesday night, spreading inland Wednesday. Most of the
cwa will see significant, but not excessive, precipitation from
this system Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given the low
antecedent streamflows, the primary concern is precipitation on
recent burn scars.

Breezy conditions will develop along the coast, over the ridges,
on the east side, and especially the shasta valley, where a wind
advisory is in effect beginning Tuesday night. If the winds line
up at pass level, it may get breezy in the rogue valley as well
Wednesday.

As far as snow goes, snow levels will lower to around 4500 feet
range near mount shasta city. It will remain above pass level, but
not by much. Snow levels elsewhere Wednesday into Wednesday night
will be in the 5500 to 6000 foot range, so only higher elevation
areas like crater lake, diamond lake, and mount ashland will see
snow.

Wednesday is going to be a big travel day and the winds and
precipitation will impact travelers. Slick roads will be an issue
as this is the first precipitation in quite a while and there
will be oil buildups on the roads.

The next wave on Thursday will be the strongest of the string. The
associated front will move onshore late Thursday morning, and
Thursday will be a wet and windy day across the area. The winds
will be strongest at the coast and along highway 101 as well as
on interstate 5 in the shasta valley during the morning and early
afternoon hours. The strong winds will spread to the east side
Thursday afternoon and night, impacting most of the roadways
there.

As far as precipitation goes, this will be the first big rainfall
event this fall for southern oregon and northern california
(although it is typical for this time of year). The heaviest
rainfall areas will be near brookings and red mound at the coast.

The mt. Shasta area could see some moderate to heavy rainfall as
well. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur during the day
Thursday. No flooding is expected other than minor small stream
flows, but there may be isolated debris flows on recent burn
scars. More information will come out on the exact nature of these
impacts in the coming days. Snow levels will drop to around 5000
feet behind the front, still remaining above most pass levels.

Precipitation will linger into Friday. The intensity will be less,
but it will still be widespread. By that time, the heaviest
amounts will extend from the mount shasta area northwest into the
kalmiopsis, and north into the cascades. Snow levels will bottom
out at 4000 to 4500 feet late Friday night into Saturday morning.

The higher passes (diamond lake, lake of the woods, cedar pass)
will receive snow while the lower passes (sexton summit, canyon
creek, hayes hill) will see only rain. Siskiyou summit will be
right in the snow rain transition zone and will likely see a bit
of both, but confidence in the snow amount forecast there is low.

The trough itself will finally move onshore Friday afternoon in a
weakened state, and a ridge will move through the area Friday
night into Saturday. Any precipitation that falls on Saturday
will be quite light, and most areas might not get any that day.

The main concern during that stretch will be cold overnight
temperatures and dense fog over the valleys in the night and
morning hours.

More troughs will move onshore Sunday and Monday night into
Tuesday, but neither of these will be nearly as strong as the
systems that will move onshore this week, and any associated wind
and precipitation will be relatively light. Model solutions
diverge after Tuesday and confidence in the forecast drops quite
a bit thereafter.

Aviation... For the 20 06z tafs... .Ifr lifr CIGS visibilities in fog
will redevelop along the coast and in the coquille valley tonight
then persist Tuesday morning. Inland, ifr lifr CIGS visibilities
have formed in the umpqua basin and will become widespread across
the umpqua overnight into Tuesday morning. Elsewhere inland ,VFR
conditions will continue through the TAF period, however could not
rule out patchy fog in the illinois valley and grants pass area
towards daybreak Tuesday. Low CIGS vis will improve late Tuesday
morning along the coast and for inland areas with clearing toVFR
expected around 17-19z. -cc
marine... Updated 200 am pst Tuesday 20 november 2018... Calm
conditions will continue through late this morning. Later this
afternoon, the weather will transition to a much more active pattern
with periods of heavy rain, strong southerly winds and choppy wind
driven seas combined with moderate swell. Conditions hazardous to
small craft are expected by late this afternoon as south winds
increase ahead of the first in a series of fronts. Seas will
continue to build tonight with hazardous seas expected by early
Wednesday morning, mainly beyond 10 nm from shore.

Another, stronger front is expected Thursday morning. Models have
trended toward an earlier arrival of this front, and have maintained
sustained gales over much of the waters. Have extended the gale
watch to an earlier time Thursday morning as a result. Also, models
show a coastal jet forming from CAPE blanco north, so it's possible
for some isolated storm force gusts in the northern outer waters
late Thursday morning. Seas will peak Thursday afternoon and evening
at around 14 to 15 feet. Winds will diminish Thursday night, but
seas will remain elevated well into Saturday night. A break in the
weather is expected Saturday into Sunday, with improved conditions
expected Sunday. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for orz023>026.

Ca... Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm pst Wednesday for
caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Thursday morning through
Thursday afternoon for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am pst
Thursday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 am to 4 pm pst Wednesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Mas jrs mnf cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 7 mi94 min Calm G 1 49°F1013.9 hPa
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 32 mi47 min 54°F3 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi46 min S 8 G 9.9 55°F 50°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR4 mi14 minESE 410.00 miFair56°F44°F65%1013.4 hPa

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Last 24hrW4W8W6W6W5N3SE3SE5E6E7SE8SE4CalmSE5SE4SE6SE6SE8SE7SE9SE5S6SE7E4
1 day ago3NW4W3CalmN6N4NE5E4CalmSE3N3CalmNE3CalmSE4SE4CalmS4E3CalmCalmCalmNE4N3
2 days agoE6E5W7W4W6W5NW4W3N5N5N5NE4NE4E3E3CalmCalmSE3SE5SE7SE5SE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
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Tue -- 03:25 AM PST     2.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM PST     7.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:21 PM PST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:32 PM PST     6.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.72.72.12.22.94.15.56.87.77.97.364.42.71.40.80.91.734.55.76.46.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.