Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coos Bay, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:12PM Sunday August 20, 2017 2:12 PM PDT (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:09AMMoonset 6:42PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 813 Am Pdt Sun Aug 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Today..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. SWell nw 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. SWell nw 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell nw 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..N wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell nw 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. SWell nw 3 ft.
Tue night..N wind 15 kt...easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. SWell W 3 ft.
Wed..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the evening, then...becoming 2 ft or less after midnight. SWell nw 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ300 813 Am Pdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. High pressure centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will support moderate to strong north winds with steep to very steep seas today. Conditions will be at least hazardous to small craft, and warning level winds and seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore from gold beach southward. The thermal trough will weaken beginning Monday causing winds and seas to diminish.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coos Bay city, OR
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location: 43.38, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201525
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
825 am pdt Sun aug 20 2017

Update The overall forecast for today seems to be mostly on
track as current observations are matching the forecast. That
being said, extremely smoky skies were observed enroute to the
office today, and the ongoing wildfires will likely to continue to
produce more smoke which will be blown into the west side valleys
as forecast. This affected the official high temperature readings
yesterday, and will likely do the same again today. Thus have
lowered the temperature forecast for the rogue valley, illinois
valley, and roseburg for today.

Otherwise, the main concerns for this forecast cycle are going to
be the wildfire conditions around the area--including thunderstorm
chances this week, and sky and smoke cover for tomorrow morning's
eclipse. Again, since the forecast looks on track, I do not
anticipate needing to make extensive changes, and have left the
previous forecast below which details the forecast pattern nicely.

-schaaf

Marine Updated 815 am pdt Sunday 20 august 2017... High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will
generate moderate to strong north winds and very steep seas
through this evening. Conditions will at least be hazardous to
small craft over all of the forecast area, and warning level
winds seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore from gold beach
south. Winds and seas will be highest this afternoon and evening,
easing during the overnight and early morning hours. The thermal
trough will weaken beginning Monday, and winds will diminish but
seas are expected to remain steep through the middle of the week
due to short period swells. Have extended the warnings and
advisories in the morning update to account for this.

-sandler schaaf

Prev discussion issued 501 am pdt Sun aug 20 2017
discussion... The main concern this morning is on-going strong,
gusty northeast winds and low humidity affecting the chetco bar
wildfire. A red flag warning pdxrfwmfr remains in effect until
noon. The quail prairie observation site in the vicinity of the
fire has had gusts of 20 to 25 mph overnight. Meanwhile, red
mound (a ridge top site nearer to brookings) has had gusts of 30
to 40 mph. The good news is that these winds are likely near a
peak, but northeast gusts will remain strong this morning then
continue at 15 to 20 mph this afternoon through tonight with a
modest improvement in humidity recovery of about 10% higher than
this morning. More substantial improvement will come with a change
to light onshore winds during the day on Monday.

The other main items of interest are persistent smoky skies over
much of our area, eclipse viewing conditions on Monday morning,
and the potential for new fire starts (mainly southward and
eastward from the southern oregon siskiyou and cascade mountains)
due to lightning on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The path of totality will be north of our area, but there will be
many viewing the partial eclipse (with certified eye wear). There
is still high confidence that cloud cover will be limited to
dissipating stratus... Retreating to the beaches north of cape
blanco, and a few high level clouds over southern modoc county.

But, smoke will make for filtered viewing over the entire area.

Highs will be several degrees higher today as a weak trough exits
the pacific northwest and offshore high pressure nudges into the
region. The other main upper level feature to affect our weather
is a closed low offshore from southern california. It will send
gradually increasing amounts of mid-level moisture northward with
a few afternoon cumulus clouds likely to pop up over the higher
terrain of the far southern portions of our area on Monday
afternoon evening.

Instability will increase on Tuesday while increased moisture
rotates northwestward into northern california and south central
oregon. A lower but still significant probability of thunderstorms
will extend to the southern oregon cascades and siskiyou
mountains.

A significant probability of thunderstorms will also exist on
Wednesday. But, the pattern will change from Tuesday as a broad
low approaches british columbia. This will shift the steering flow
to southwesterly but the main risk will once again be from the
siskiyous and cascades southward and eastward.

A cold frontal passage associated with the trough will bring a
slight chance of light drizzle or showers to the douglas and coos
county coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The front
will bring gusty afternoon winds to the east side, but also the
coolest high temperature readings of the week.

There is increased model agreement toward ridging developing over
the west coast late in the week into the weekend with a warming
and drying trend.

Aviation... 20 12z TAF cycle... Gusty north to northeast winds will
continue in the coastal mountains through Sunday with a persistent
thermal trough. Patches of ifr lifr are possible north of cape
blanco, but the models suggest mostly clear skies. Expect similar
wind speeds with gusts of 35 kt at oth again this afternoon. North
winds are also expected to surface at rbg with gusts up to 25 knots
in the afternoon.

Areas of MVFR visibility can be expected in wildfire smoke inland
with local ifr in the immediate vicinity of the fires.

-sandler
fire weather... Updated 305 am Sunday, 20 august 2017...

high pressure offshore and a strong thermal trough over california
will produce gusty northwest through northeast winds once again
across much of the area this afternoon into tonight. Conditions will
be most critical in the far southwestern oregon coastal mountains as
gusty northeast winds continue through Sunday morning. Winds will
weaken some today into early Monday but still be moderate. Humidity
recoveries will still be moderate to poor on the upper slopes and
ridges.

Lower elevation west side locations will continue to experience mid
level haines 5 conditions through Monday where the inversion breaks,
while higher elevations experience mostly haines 4 to 5 where the
inversion breaks.

The flow aloft weakens and shifts to southerly Monday as moisture
and, then, instability arrive. Thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday and Wednesday from approximately the cascades and siskiyous
south and eastward. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning some
guidance is indicating the possibility of thunderstorms cresting the
siskiyous and west of the cascades, so we'll continue to keep an eye
on this. Wednesday afternoon and evening the threat begins to kick
out to the east and is just about out of the area Thursday afternoon
and evening. -sandler

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning until noon pdt today for orz618-619.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Monday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt
Monday for pzz356-376.

Gale warning until 2 am pdt Monday for pzz376.

Bms dw res


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 7 mi43 min NNE 13 G 20 51°F1018.9 hPa
46128 18 mi73 min 14 50°F1019.8 hPa (-1.0)
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 32 mi49 min 53°F7 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi43 min NW 17 G 24 65°F 49°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR4 mi17 minN 21 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy64°F53°F68%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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N16N6N10CalmN4NW5NW6N5NW4N5N8N13N16N19N21
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1 day agoN23
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2 days agoN19
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N15N11N13N11N9N5N7N3CalmCalmN4N4CalmCalmN7N15N20N23
G26
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G27

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Coos Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:24 AM PDT     7.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM PDT     -1.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:46 PM PDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:14 PM PDT     1.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.87.86.85.13.11-0.5-1.2-0.90.21.83.65.26.36.55.94.83.42.21.51.82.84.35.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:10 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:54 AM PDT     -1.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:28 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:25 PM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:54 PM PDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:54 PM PDT     8.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.86.54.52.40.4-0.9-1.3-0.70.72.54.45.96.76.75.84.63.22.21.92.43.65.26.88

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.