Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Washington, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 9:52 PM CDT (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 906 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am cdt Wednesday through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..East wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming east 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers just before midnight, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201905221000;;252410 FZUS53 KMKX 220206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-221000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Washington, WI
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location: 43.38, -87.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 220233 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
933 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Update
Rain showers have moved into the western forecast area and remain
on track to move through late evening and overnight. Still looks
like thunder will be possible, especially toward the illinois
border.

Marine
High pressure over the central great lakes will continue to move
slowly east tonight. East to northeast winds will increase through
the remainder of the evening ahead of low pressure over the
kansas nebraska borer. Winds will be gusty out of east to
southeast overnight into Wednesday as the low lifts into minnesota
by Wednesday afternoon. A small craft advisory remains in effect
through the day Wednesday.

Winds will weaken a little and veer to the southwest Wednesday
night as the low departs and high pressure approaches. No gale
force wind events are expected through the week.

Prev discussion (issued 703 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019)
update...

the timing of the approaching band of showers and isolated thunder
is in pretty good line with what the day crew put in the forecast.

Just made some minor adjustments to the precip chances. Did bump
the rain totals up a bit in the west per latest model guidance.

Thunder chances this evening into tonight look the highest from
madison and milwaukee southward, with decreasing instability to
the north.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

the first forecast concern this evening is the development of low
level wind shear. Winds will pick up aloft as the jet moves into
the area and will be gusty at the surface at times through the
night. Looked like a big enough wind differential in the lowest
2kft to keep the mention of wind shear in the tafs, especially if
the gusts aren't that frequent due to limited mixing after sunset.

Attention then turns to the approaching band of showers and
isolated thunder. This will push through later this evening and
overnight. Based on upstream conditions, thinking visibilities
could go down to the 2-4 mile range in the more moderate rain.

Ceilings will also drop as the low levels saturate. The rain
should clear out of the east early Wed morning, withVFR
conditions returning not too long after.

Prev discussion... (issued 226 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019)
discussion...

tonight and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium to high.

Drier easterly low level flow holding bulk of light showers at
bay. However isolated showers have been tickling the western and
southwest areas. Main period of showers and possibly an isolated
t-storm will be later this evening through about 09z as axis of
upstream low level jet pivots eastward. At the same time,
wisconsin will be on the eastern edge of a mid-upper level short
wave trof rotating northward around plains low pressure that will
be tracking mostly nne tonight and Wednesday. Column precipitable
water increases to around an inch with the bulk of the moisture
increase late this afternoon and evening. Layer q-vector
convergence increases to 20-30 units as the stronger synoptic
forcing slides through. Expecting a swath of mostly showers with a
small chance for a rumble of thunder to affect the area overnight
with minimal elevated instability.

Synoptic forcing slides off to the northeast later tonight with
mostly dry conditions on Wednesday. Drier air wrapping into the
system will result in the clouds breaking up in the morning with a
mild and breezy afternoon. Southwest gusts to 30 to 35 mph will be
possible. Low levels of the atmosphere per bufkit soundings looks
fairly dry with a capping inversion most of the day, so held off
on introducing any showers, except in the far north, closer to the
warm front and better low level convergence.

Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

A low pressure center will track from northern minnesota to lake
superior with a trailing cold front drifting across southern
wisconsin... Exiting to the southeast by 12z thu. Some models are
lighting off a few showers storms along the front across mainly the
southeast later in the evening and just after midnight due to a
brief surge in frontogenetic forcing coupled with some weak cape.

The problem is the column is quite dry except for some moisture
below about 6kft. Will continue to carry a small chance of
showers storms as it moves through.

Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure builds very briefly across the area bringing a
rather fine day to the area on Thursday. We should get into some
sunshine with highs in the 70s... Even by lake michigan! In fact, a
massive mid level ridge will be building from the the gulf
coastal states, north into the great lakes. Although this will
help bring milder temps to the region, it will also put us in a
more active southwest flow pattern. The first of a few
disturbances to impact the region will arrive late Thursday night.

A convective complex will develop across nebraska and iowa and
push into southern wisconsin late Thursday night and diurnally
weaken over wisconsin Friday morning.

The storm prediction center is highlighting southern wisconsin for
the potential of severe weather on Friday, but this is conditional
on whether we can clear out, heat up and fire off new convection
on the remnant outflow boundary cold front in the afternoon. Right
now it looks like we'll have quite a bit of convective debris
clouds, and lingering rain into the early afternoon. This should
be enough to temper the amount and strength redevelopment. In
addition, it looks like the convective outflow boundary may push
south into illinois, taking the new development potential south of
wisconsin. Plenty of uncertainty for now and we'll have to give
it some time to play out.

Memorial day weekend (sun-mon)... Forecast confidence is medium.

We should see a nearly stationary boundary set up south of
wisconsin with high pressure dominating to our north. This is
looking favorable for a rather dry and rather pleasant holiday
weekend. Given the proximity of the boundary to the south and the
rather active southwest to zonal mid level flow, we can't rule out
precip chances completely... Especially down near the wi il border
area. Since will be on the north side of the boundary, temps will
likely hover in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The long range guidance is in rather good agreement in bringing
our next round of showers and storms with a convective complex
arriving late Monday night and Tuesday.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

drier easterly low level flow holding bulk of light showers at bay
for now. Expect isolated light showers to become more numerous
through the late afternoon and especially the evening. Most areas
will experience a band of showers overnight with lower ceilings to
MVFR levels. East to southeast winds will remain gusty just above
shallow weak inversion. However expect gusty winds at the surface
to around 20 kts or a little higher, so held off on adding llws to
tafs. Most of Wednesday will beVFR as ceilings are expected to
rise during the morning.

Marine... High pressure ridge over lake michigan will continue to
weaken as strong low pressure in the southern plains moves slowly
northward. The approaching low pressure will result in a
tightening pressure gradient and resultant increasing mostly
easterly winds gradually turning to the southeast later tonight
and Wednesday. Due to the cooler lake waters causing a steep,
shallow low level inversion, the strongest winds are not expected
to mix down to the lake surface. However gustier winds will likely
be reached at the pilot house on top of the bulk carriers
traversing the lake. For now, thinking the gusts will remain below
30 kts at this level, which is anywhere from 60 to 90 feet off
the lake surface. Will keep small craft advisory in effect for
near shore waters for tonight into Wednesday due to building waves
and gusts to 25 knots. Despite the winds veering to the south to
southwest on Wednesday, wave heights will remain elevated much of
the day.

Beaches...

persistent easterly winds tonight, veering southeast on Wednesday
will bring building waves to the beaches of southeast
wisconsin... Resulting in a high swim risk. The high swim risk will
begin south of milwaukee early this evening, and north of
milwaukee toward midnight. These conditions will continue into
Wednesday. It should be noted that water temperatures are in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement through Wednesday afternoon for wiz066-
071-072.

Beach hazards statement from 1 am cdt Wednesday through
Wednesday evening for wiz052-060.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Wednesday for lmz646.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 7 pm cdt Wednesday for
lmz643>645.

Update... Ddv
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Davis
Wednesday night through Tuesday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 23 mi42 min ENE 8.9 G 9.9 45°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 27 mi52 min ENE 11 G 12 44°F 1017 hPa (-1.3)39°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI14 mi77 minE 7 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F35°F58%1015.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI20 mi57 minE 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast48°F35°F62%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE6E9
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1 day agoW9
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N6N6N6NW4NE6SE6SE4SE5CalmCalm
2 days agoNE8NE10NE6NE10NE8NE7E6E4E3E3E3E5S6SE6E6SW3SW12
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.