Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 4:38 AM   Moonset 6:30 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 060519 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 119 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Once we clear precipitation tomorrow morning, a couple days with dry and warm weather will unfold. Quiet weather is expected, with foggy conditions possible early Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, rain chances will return to the forecast alongside a trend towards cool temperatures struggling to rise above 60 over the weekend.
Friday appears most likely to be the wettest day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 112 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes were needed with this update. Our first batch of rain has moved well to our south and east; now we await scattered showers to develop along a weak cold front which currently lies poised just on the other side of the St Lawrence Valley. With light winds and ample low- level moisture, expect patchy fog will develop as we head toward daybreak. Cloud clover will linger as well, and this will serve to keep temperatures from cooling much more than a few degrees beyond current readings (mid 40s to mid 50s). The forecast has this all pretty much covered, so only change was to increase cloud cover to cloudy pretty much areawide through the remainder of the overnight hours.

Previous discussion...Rain from moist, tropical air overriding the cool maritime air at the surface has yielded a soggy day alongside an incoming upper vort. As we head towards evening, the subtle upper trough will shift east with sunset helping rain to also diminish. It'll be this time frame we see winds around 2000-4000 feet above the ground pick up from the south. Winds will become increasingly gusty near Lake Champlain up to 30 mph over the next several hours, but will likely have little impact on the rest of the region. Abundant clouds and rain have generally kept us in the 50s today with a few readings stuck in the upper 40s.
Little cooling is expected tonight while we await a weak cold front, with mid 40s to lower 50s likely to hold steady.

Overnight, a weak cold front characterized mostly by its moisture gradient will move southeast and there will a brief uptick in shower activity between about 4 AM and 10 AM Monday associated with it.
Rising pressures and dry atmospheric conditions afterwards should allow clouds to clear out into a gorgeous day.
Temperatures will climb into the 60s for most, with spot 70s across our lower valleys. Surface high pressure slides overhead Monday night. With relatively high dewpoints and recent rain, this seems the opportunity for fog development with a cool morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s, though still upper 40s near Lake Champlain.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 258 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday is shaping up to be a gorgeous early May day by North Country standards. We briefly get into an omega block in between an upper low out across the Northern Rockies and another one across Newfoundland. Surface high pressure noses in from south of Hudson Bay, and given all the recent rains, it should be a picture perfect day with the leafing process kicking into high gear and mostly sunny skies. Forecast soundings show the potential for the boundary layer to mix up to 800mb, so there could be some localized northwest gusts of 15 mph. Lower dew points from aloft could also mix down to the surface, but given the recent wetting rain and green up, the 30s dew points would increase outdoor comfort rather than fire danger. Given the relatively deep mixing and potential downsloping northwest flow off the Adirondacks, have utilized the 75th percentile of temperature guidance for afternoon highs on Tuesday. Expect highs 68 to 75 areawide, except 58-64 across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
Get outside and enjoy what should be the pick of the week if you can!

Quiet weather should continue into Tuesday evening and even the first half of the overnight hours. However, the omega block breaks down, allowing for a piece of shortwave energy from the huge meandering closed upper low out west to approach our region. PWATs rise from 0.4 to 0.9 inches, which is equivalent to the 25th and 75th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. Expect shower coverage to become more widespread during the latter half of the overnight hours into the Wednesday morning hours. Then the upper level pattern gets a little more complicated.
Models show that upper low over Newfoundland retrograding into New Hampshire/Maine. As it interacts with the aforementioned relatively weak shortwave energy from out west, there are some signals it becomes a neutrally to even slightly negatively tilted H5 trough.
Looking at the 250mb level, there is a small window parts of New England gets into the favorable left exit region of an anomalously strong 110 kt jet. At this point, however, it does look like the best jet dynamics are to the south of our CWA, so the most probable weather risk at this time are garden variety thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon with locally heavy downpours. Nonetheless, there still remains plenty of time in the model world for our southern zones to get into more organized convection. Overall, the key take home message at this time is to monitor the forecast especially for Wednesday afternoon given the potential for thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 258 PM EDT Sunday...From Wednesday night onwards, the overall weather pattern can be described as unsettled with no real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors below normal temperatures and leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. Global models show a rather active northern stream upper level pattern, with a train of quick-hitting shortwave troughs originating from northern Canada crossing our regions every 2-3 days. While the most aggressive members of the Model-Based Ensemble Forecast System (MMEFS) guidance are hinting at a non-zero chance of river flooding in the Friday/Saturday time frame, the consensus of members is for area rivers to remain below action stage. The probability of widespread convection, which is required to drive the rainfall rates for flooding to be a concern, is extremely low and mainly confined to the south of our CWA Therefore, the rainfall is expected to be mainly showery and manageable in nature. Outside of rainfall concerns, while the forecast has shower chances almost every single day, it does not mean that it will be a washout every day. In fact, that would probably be extended dry periods although it is difficult to time those breaks in rainfall and clouds this far out. So largely stuck to blended guidance from Wednesday onwards.

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 06Z Tuesday...Currently a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings across the region. Scattered showers will slowly cross from west to east early in the period as a cold front pushes through, and IFR ceilings are expected at all terminals as this occurs, roughly 07z-12z. The lone exception is KPBG, which should stay just barely MVFR. Visibilities will be reduced 3-5SM at times in rain and fog. The front exits to our southeast by 14z, and expect gradual improvement thereafter, with ceilings lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR at all terminals by late in the TAF period. Winds light and mainly terrain driven overnight, turning toward the north/northwest around 5-8 kt once the front moves through.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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