Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hilton, NY
May 2, 2024 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM Moonset 12:36 PM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 501 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 022327 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 727 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through much of Friday as high pressure over the region slides east into New England tonight. A warm front will cross the region later tonight into the first half of Friday bringing a surge of warmer air into the area boosting high temperatures well above average to end the work week. A couple of slow moving cold fronts will then cross the area Friday night through Sunday bringing a couple rounds of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure returns with mainly dry weather for the start of the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure slides east of the area tonight, while upper level ridge crests overhead. These features will keep our weather dry with overnight lows mainly ranging through the 40s, with low 50s possible along the Lake Erie shore northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge/Boston Hills as a weak southeasterly flow develops on the back side of the high.
On Friday, surface high pressure settles toward the New England coast, while upper level ridge axis slowly crosses the area.
Increasing low level southerly return flow will help push a surface warm front northeastward across the region through the first half of Friday. This will allow a surge of warmer to spread across the region boosting highs into the mid and upper 70s for much of the region, with some lower and even a few mid 80s across far western NY and the traditional warmest spots in the Genesee Valley. Areas downwind of the Lakes will be cooler.
High pressure will keep much of Friday dry, however as the upper level ridge axis drifts east across eastern NY, the door will open to a southwesterly flow of deeper moisture that will advect in across at least far western NY by late in the day. A cold front slowly approaching from the west will eventually interact with this increasing moisture, and in combination with daytime heating may produce a few scattered showers and storms as early as late Friday afternoon across far western NY. Best focus would be along the lake breeze boundary that will be found just inland of Lake Erie.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Shower potential will increase for Friday night for WNY and shift east some Saturday morning as a sfc low and its warm front and cold front approaches from the west. These features will track north along a larger occluded front tracking across the Great Lakes. The occluded front extends out ahead of an area of low pressure that will become vertically stacked and stall over/near the Hudson Bay.
As the sfc low tracks toward the region PWat values will increase toward 1.50 inches out ahead of the system Friday night into the morning on Saturday as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pushes north.
As the cold front tracks into and across the region Friday night & Saturday it will slow down with eastward progression over the central NY area. This slower track of the front will cause showers to linger for much of Saturday, especially for the Genesee Valley eastward. Though some guidance is suggesting some breaks in the showers at times during the late morning and afternoon on Saturday as forcing from the occluded front becomes weaker.
Showers that do linger across the area with the slow moving frontal system will slowly shift east late Saturday into Sunday, providing a break from the shower activity. Another cold front tracking into the region from the Great Lakes will then bring the potential for another round of showers from Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.
Still plenty of uncertainty for most of the weekend among guidance as far as breaks in the precip and timing/speed of frontal boundaries moving through the area. Rainfall amounts of around a quarter to a half inch are currently expected, with some higher amounts where the frontal boundary stalls the longest.
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be near to around 5 degrees above normal for the entire area with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s for both days. Night time temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with the coolest night expected for Sunday night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure wedging in across the eastern Great Lakes Monday should suppress any shower or storm activity well south the NY/PA line
For now
its looking like a fine spring day is on tap with highs in the 60s to even low 70s in spots. Cooler near the lake shores due to the fact that water temperatures are still in the 40s.
Monday night...high pressure looks like it will continue to provide dry weather across the region. Lows will be found in the 40s to low 50s in some locales.
The next chance at showers and storms will likely come from a low pressure system spinning over the upper Midwest, along with its attached warm front advancing northeast towards the Lower Lakes.
While it appears much of the day Tuesday will be precipitation free, rain chances begin to significantly increase by Tuesday night and then continues into the day Wednesday
That said
even if we see some break in the precipitation, guidance continues to advertise a very active pattern through the rest of the week.
Overall...temperatures will continue to run above average through the period.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure over the region this evening with slide east to New England overnight. VFR conditions through at least 12z Friday with just some passing cirrus level cloud.
Some thickening mid and upper level decks Friday morning as a warm front nears the region, but continued VFR with mainly light winds. Friday afternoon, a chance of showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm across western NY after 18z.
Outlook...
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Friday through Sunday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 727 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through much of Friday as high pressure over the region slides east into New England tonight. A warm front will cross the region later tonight into the first half of Friday bringing a surge of warmer air into the area boosting high temperatures well above average to end the work week. A couple of slow moving cold fronts will then cross the area Friday night through Sunday bringing a couple rounds of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure returns with mainly dry weather for the start of the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure slides east of the area tonight, while upper level ridge crests overhead. These features will keep our weather dry with overnight lows mainly ranging through the 40s, with low 50s possible along the Lake Erie shore northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge/Boston Hills as a weak southeasterly flow develops on the back side of the high.
On Friday, surface high pressure settles toward the New England coast, while upper level ridge axis slowly crosses the area.
Increasing low level southerly return flow will help push a surface warm front northeastward across the region through the first half of Friday. This will allow a surge of warmer to spread across the region boosting highs into the mid and upper 70s for much of the region, with some lower and even a few mid 80s across far western NY and the traditional warmest spots in the Genesee Valley. Areas downwind of the Lakes will be cooler.
High pressure will keep much of Friday dry, however as the upper level ridge axis drifts east across eastern NY, the door will open to a southwesterly flow of deeper moisture that will advect in across at least far western NY by late in the day. A cold front slowly approaching from the west will eventually interact with this increasing moisture, and in combination with daytime heating may produce a few scattered showers and storms as early as late Friday afternoon across far western NY. Best focus would be along the lake breeze boundary that will be found just inland of Lake Erie.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Shower potential will increase for Friday night for WNY and shift east some Saturday morning as a sfc low and its warm front and cold front approaches from the west. These features will track north along a larger occluded front tracking across the Great Lakes. The occluded front extends out ahead of an area of low pressure that will become vertically stacked and stall over/near the Hudson Bay.
As the sfc low tracks toward the region PWat values will increase toward 1.50 inches out ahead of the system Friday night into the morning on Saturday as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pushes north.
As the cold front tracks into and across the region Friday night & Saturday it will slow down with eastward progression over the central NY area. This slower track of the front will cause showers to linger for much of Saturday, especially for the Genesee Valley eastward. Though some guidance is suggesting some breaks in the showers at times during the late morning and afternoon on Saturday as forcing from the occluded front becomes weaker.
Showers that do linger across the area with the slow moving frontal system will slowly shift east late Saturday into Sunday, providing a break from the shower activity. Another cold front tracking into the region from the Great Lakes will then bring the potential for another round of showers from Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.
Still plenty of uncertainty for most of the weekend among guidance as far as breaks in the precip and timing/speed of frontal boundaries moving through the area. Rainfall amounts of around a quarter to a half inch are currently expected, with some higher amounts where the frontal boundary stalls the longest.
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be near to around 5 degrees above normal for the entire area with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s for both days. Night time temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with the coolest night expected for Sunday night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure wedging in across the eastern Great Lakes Monday should suppress any shower or storm activity well south the NY/PA line
For now
its looking like a fine spring day is on tap with highs in the 60s to even low 70s in spots. Cooler near the lake shores due to the fact that water temperatures are still in the 40s.
Monday night...high pressure looks like it will continue to provide dry weather across the region. Lows will be found in the 40s to low 50s in some locales.
The next chance at showers and storms will likely come from a low pressure system spinning over the upper Midwest, along with its attached warm front advancing northeast towards the Lower Lakes.
While it appears much of the day Tuesday will be precipitation free, rain chances begin to significantly increase by Tuesday night and then continues into the day Wednesday
That said
even if we see some break in the precipitation, guidance continues to advertise a very active pattern through the rest of the week.
Overall...temperatures will continue to run above average through the period.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure over the region this evening with slide east to New England overnight. VFR conditions through at least 12z Friday with just some passing cirrus level cloud.
Some thickening mid and upper level decks Friday morning as a warm front nears the region, but continued VFR with mainly light winds. Friday afternoon, a chance of showers and a low risk of a thunderstorm across western NY after 18z.
Outlook...
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Friday through Sunday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 10 mi | 42 min | 56°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 11 mi | 60 min | SSE 1.9G | 59°F | 30.09 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 56 mi | 60 min | 0G | 67°F | 30.05 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 20 sm | 66 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 64°F | 45°F | 49% | 30.05 |
Buffalo, NY,
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