Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 7:09 PM   Moonset 3:46 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1025 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 220239 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
There will be showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region on Wednesday. Some of these storms may be strong with gusty winds possible. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/
Late this evening a mid-level wave will exit to the east and with diminishing instability following nightfall it will be dry and mild overnight with lows in the 60s.

Active weather day expected Wednesday with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Ahead of approaching cold frontal boundary an increasingly unstable environment will emerge, with surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and surface dewpoints getting into the mid to upper 60s. Surface based CAPES likely nearing 2000 j/kg during peak heating. Increasing shear profiles suggesting the potential for damaging winds and hail, with even a small corridor of enhanced low level helicity developing into southwest New York possibly favoring a few rotating cells. HRRR and most mesoscale guidance brings this into Western NY around 1 p.m. then moves the line of storm eastward to the eastern Lake Ontario region around 6 p.m. A secondary line of less developed storms is possible just ahead of the cold front heading into Wednesday evening. SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for severe weather, with the exception of portions of the Eastern Lake Ontario region which is in a marginal risk.

SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Closed mid-level low centered over the central portions of the Ontario province will become vertically stacked by Wednesday night with its surface low. As this low pressure system weakens, its associated cold front draped southward across the lower Great Lakes will continue to progress eastward across western and north central NY. This being said heading into Wednesday night, showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into the evening hours, though the potential for severe thunderstorms will diminish shortly after sunset due to the loss in diurnal heating and instability. The front will then cross Wednesday night and continue to support showers inland from the lakes. By Thursday morning the vast majority of shower activity should be to the southeast of the area, as dry air from the next incoming surface high advances east towards the area resulting in dry conditions across the region.

As surface high pressure pushes east across the area Thursday through Friday, associated subsidence will support dry weather persist. Though dry, it will be 'cooler' in the wake of the cold front Thursday and Friday with highs ranging in the 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The next mid-level trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will support a surface low to push northeast across the eastern Great Lakes into southern Canada Saturday. This will support a warm front to advance towards the region ahead of the surface low, resulting in an increase in shower potential Friday night and last through Saturday night.

A brief interlude in shower activity for the Memorial Day weekend on Sunday as high pressure slides east across the region.

Showers return late Sunday night and linger through Monday as another upper level trough and associated surface low pushes across the Ohio Valley towards the lower Great Lakes.

Temperatures for the period will be near normal with high temperatures ranging in the low to upper 70s for most of the area and cooler temperatures across the higher terrain.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR with no active weather through 15Z Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon. Some of these could be strong with gusty winds and hail. After this, another line of storms is possible with the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening, however these are not expected to be as strong.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Restrictions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Low pressure will send a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday, resulting in a increasing SSW flow. But winds and waves look like they will remain below small craft conditions with this frontal passage and for the rest of the work week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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