Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Bend, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:06PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 5:55 AM PDT (12:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:27PMMoonset 10:14PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 306 Am Pdt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Seas will become increasingly more influenced by building northwest swell today. North winds will increase further late this afternoon and evening with small craft advisory conditions expanding north of cape blanco. South of cape blanco expect a mix of steep to very steep seas to develop this evening with the steepest seas expected beyond 10 nm from shore from brookings southward. Gusty north winds and steep seas will gradually diminish on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Bend, OR
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location: 43.42, -124.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 261053
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
353 am pdt Tue sep 26 2017

Discussion An upper ridge axis centered just off the coast will
lean in over the pacnw and gradually become positively tilted
over the next 48 hours. A surface thermal trough will also remain
along the coast during this period. This will lead to warm weather
with offshore breezes along much of the coast through tomorrow.

Over inland areas, temperatures will warm about 5 degrees today
compared to yesterday, and this will put us a few degrees above
normal. As the thermal trough moves inland later tomorrow into
Thursday, temperatures will warm even more and peak at around 10
degrees above normal. At the coast, it will start to cool off
tomorrow evening as the flow turns onshore in the wake of the
thermal trough, and then Thursday will be much cooler with marine
stratus approaching the coast if not moving onshore. All of this
was well covered in the going forecast, and few changes were made
to the forecast through Thursday.

Significant changes were made to the forecast starting Friday and
continuing on through the rest of the period. Models are in
agreement in showing a frontal system moving into the waters early
Friday and then onshore during the day. There are differences in
timing and amounts of rain with the front, and while a good part
of this front's precipitation will likely be sacrificed in
moistening the airmass, higher pops certainly seemed warranted,
especially along the coast and across the north.

The front then moves east on Saturday, and we are left with moist
westerly flow over our area. This pattern lends itself to at least
some chance for rain, focused along the coast and northern areas
into Sunday. Later Sunday into early next week model consistency
goes out the window to a degree. The ECMWF and canadian show a
potentially very wet system impacting our area as early as Sunday
evening (canadian) or Monday (ecmwf). By contrast, the gfs, which
had a similar solution in earlier runs, almost entirely dropped
this system on the 00z run and showed a weakening system along the
coast and an upper system moving down inland through the great
basin. Given the poor run-to-run consistency with the GFS as well
as its very large ensemble spread during the period, we leaned
much more on the ECMWF canadian solutions. Many adjustments
(mostly wetter and cooler) were made to the forecast from Saturday
into early next week. -wright

Aviation 26 12z TAF cycle... At the coast north of CAPE blanco
and in the lower umpqua valley northwest of roseburg... Areas of
ifr lifr CIGS vis are expected this morning through around 16z,
then should clear toVFR around or after 17z. Patchy fog may
develop near rbg for a few hours this morning. Elsewhere,VFR is
expected through the TAF period. -spilde

Marine Updated 345 am pdt Tuesday, 26 september 2017... High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will
maintain gusty north winds and steep wind seas through tonight.

Winds and seas will increase today with small craft conditions
south of CAPE blanco expanding north of CAPE blanco this evening.

Occasional gusts to gale force are possible this evening mainly
from gold beach south beyond 5 nm from shore. Very steep wind-
driven seas are expected to develop by this evening from brookings
south between 10 and 45 nm from shore. North winds and steep seas
will gradually diminish by Wednesday afternoon. Light southerly
winds and light seas are expected Wednesday night into Thursday. A
cold front will push through on Friday with southerly winds
becoming northwesterly. Seas will increase a bit this weekend as a
northwest swell moves into the waters. -spilde

Fire weather Updated 345 am pdt Tuesday, 26 september 2017... .

Warming and drying will continue over the area today through
Thursday. Breezy northeast to east winds are expected this morning
and again tonight into Wednesday morning on the mid slopes and
ridges of western siskiyou and curry counties bringing dry air all
the way to the coast. The higher peaks along the cascades will
have breezy winds tonight into Wednesday morning and then maybe
again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overall, it will be
breeziest tonight, then it will be driest Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as offshore flow weakens and the thermal trough
pushes inland. Marine air will have more influence along the coast
by Thursday, so it will be cooler there with higher humidity.

Inland, temperatures are expected to peak with lowest
humidity values both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with the
thermal trough advancing inland. It should be noted up front
that we are not expecting critical fire weather conditions (that
would result in fire weather watches red flag warnings) at
any point this week. But, with dry, unstable conditions expected
wed thu, if there was a period of time where fire activity picks
up, that would be it.

By the end of this week, model guidance is in agreement showing a
cold front moving through the area on Friday. Westerly winds will
become gusty for much of the forecast area Friday afternoon and
evening and the front could bring some light rain along
the coast, north of the umpqua divide and over to the cascades.

Rain amounts should be light, however. Most NE california
and east side locations should stay dry, but isolated showers
could make it east of the cascades. It will turn much cooler
over the weekend with most areas running 10-15 degrees below
average. Some showers will persist north and west of the umpqua
divide.

Models diverge early next week, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast Sunday night onward. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt
Wednesday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am pdt
Wednesday for pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 pm pdt
this evening for pzz376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 5 mi80 min N 1 G 2.9 55°F1018.8 hPa
46128 16 mi56 min 3.9 1019.4 hPa (-0.3)
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 28 mi33 min 58°F5 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 48 mi38 min NW 8 G 9.9 59°F 50°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi60 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F51°F100%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NE4CalmNE4E3NE3Calm3W6NW9NW9NW6N5W4N4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3
1 day agoCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmW3W5NW13N16N17
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2 days agoSE6SE4SE5SE5SE3Calm3NW3NW9N9N11N13N14N12N11NW4W3CalmSE3E3SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Empire
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Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:25 AM PDT     2.72 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:26 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 PM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.32.23.24.14.74.94.64.13.532.72.83.23.94.75.35.75.65.14.23.22.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:20 AM PDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM PDT     2.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:26 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM PDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:39 PM PDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.22.13.144.85.15.14.643.4333.344.75.45.965.64.93.82.71.71.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.