Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM   Moonset 11:34 AM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 259 Am Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Weak high pressure will move in today with moderate north winds, highest south of cape blanco. Then, a weak front will move through the waters tonight into Thursday. This will result in a break with calmer conditions Thursday night into early Friday, then the active pattern resumes with hazardous conditions for small craft possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

FXUS66 KMFR 011209 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 509 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

New Aviation Section

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

VFR conditions are expected through the beginning half of this TAF cycle. A weak front will move through today bringing rain chances across the region. This added moisture will allow for lower ceilings and MVFR conditions across much of the area today including mountain obstructions. There is a possibility for IFR conditions given the extra moisture around, but confidence on the timing of these possible ceilings is low at this time. That said, North Bend is the likely candidate here for IFR ceilings. We may need to reevaluate for Roseburg and Medford, but at this time confidence was higher to keep ceilings in MVFR.

-Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 343 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024/

DISCUSSION...A transient, weak ridge over the area today will result in dry and clearer weather, with mild afternoon temperatures after a chilly morning. The pattern will remain progressive, however, with a system bringing a return to wet and cooler weather tonight into Thursday and another, stronger/wetter system, Friday into Saturday. Unsettled, showery conditions continue into this weekend.

Satellite imagery (nighttime microphysics RBG) show that skies have generally cleared over the region and showers have tapered off, though some residual, low-level cloudiness lingers in the valleys of Douglas and Coos counties and in the southern edges of Rogue and Illinois valleys. Clearer conditions will result in another morning on the chillier side, with temperatures near or below freezing in the majority of the forecast area (with the exception of some of our western valleys and the coast, which will see lows in the high 30s to low 40s). A Freeze Warning for parts of the Illinois and Applegate valleys continues this morning to account for the effect of sub-freezing temperatures in the area on sensitive vegetation. After this cooler morning, temperatures will be mild (warmer than yesterday) and skies generally clear.

The next system approaches later today, approaching the coast in the evening and spreading inland eastwards overnight into early Thursday morning, with lingering showery weather Thursday afternoon. This will bring widespread precipitation to southwest Oregon, though our northern CA counties will generally miss out on anteing but light precipitation. Snow levels rise today with warming temperatures and will generally stay high, so snow will be generally restricted to mountainous areas above 5,000 feet.
Higher peaks in the Cascades will see 3-5 inches of wet snow and Cascade passes less than an inch up to 2, and impacts are expected to be minimal. Breezy but not overly strong westerly winds will build over ridges and east of the Cascades.

As the driving trough moves east, another brief ridge will build into the region Thursday evening into early Friday, providing another dry break in the weather.
-CSP

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Issued 437 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024...The axis of a short wave upper ridge will be centered over the area Friday morning with a surface warm front just offshore.
The upper ridge will be transient as an active jet over the north Pacific allows another deep upper trough to carve out a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. Any warming that occurs Friday (compared to Thursday) will be modest at best and where it stays sunniest the longest (in NE California/East of the Cascades). These areas probably have high temps 5-10F higher than on Thursday. But, west of the Cascades, warming will be muted due to the increased cloud cover, with temps topping out mostly in the 60s. As the warm front pushes northward and an associated surface cold front well offshore approaches the PacNW, rain chances increase along the coast with rain becoming likely there (50-70% chance) by Friday evening.

This frontal system will be fairly potent in terms of precipitation Friday night into Saturday with good moisture transport into the region and the lack of a significant downslope component that would otherwise lead to rain shadowing. PoPs peak at 80-100% area wide.
Don't get me wrong, there won't be as much rainfall in the typically drier areas as say, the coast, but it probably won't be as large a difference as usual. So, the front should be an efficient rain producer for a larger part of the area. Widespread wetting and beneficial rainfall is expected with preliminary amounts for the coast in the 1.25-2.50 inch range and many areas inland receiving 0.50-1.25 of an inch. A little less rain is expected for the Klamath Basin and over the deserts east of Winter Rim where 0.25-0.50 of an inch appears to be the most likely amount. Snow levels will be up above 7000 feet as precipitation arrives Friday night, so no significant winter impacts are expected initially as precipitation begins. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 feet late Friday night/Saturday morning as the cold front moves through, so some snow will accumulate over the mountains (mostly above 5500 feet). Several inches (4-8") are possible up at Crater Lake, but down on the more traveled roadways around Diamond Lake and also over Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods, it'll probably just be wet or slushy (especially due to the time of year and warmer ground temps). Model wind fields aren't particularly impressive with this system, with most suggesting peak wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range over usual spots east of the Cascades (eastern Siskiyou/Modoc and up into Klamath/Lake counties).

The cooler, wetter weather pattern with post-frontal showers will continue Saturday afternoon and also Saturday night into Sunday as the deep upper trough/closed low swings through the area, but coverage of showers will lessen with time. While showers are possible just about anywhere and at just about any time on Sunday, much of the time for most areas will be rain-free. Highs on the weekend in the west side valleys will be mostly in the 50s to around 60F. East side temps will top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Models are showing moist onshore flow continuing into early next week with renewed (and increased) chances for rain showers (50-70%)
along the coast and into the Umpqua and over to the Cascades Monday/Tuesday. But, precip chances are lower (20-40%) across SE sections.

We may get a reprieve from the active weather as the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook favors a return toward more "normal" conditions (temps/precip) for the second week of May.
-Spilde

AVIATION
01/06Z TAFs
Residual moisture will result in areas of clouds lingering through the night over Umpqua Basin. Clouds may fill in enough to produce brief IFR ceilings around KRBG around 12Z.
Clouds will also continue to bank up against the west and north facing slopes of the Cascades and Siskiyous resulting in mountain obscurations tonight.

Elsewhere, conditions will be VFR through the TAF period with typical diurnal winds (light and variable at night and gusty west- northwest in the afternoon). -Wright

MARINE
Updated 230 AM Wednesday, May 1, 2024
A weak surface low will continue to develop over the Gulf of Alaska today. This low will eventually move inland tomorrow evening, and is not expected to be much of a concern for hazards over the waters, but we will see rainfall (no thunder) starting Wednesday night. The next surface low expected on Friday will have a stronger front associated with it, and this may result in the next round of small craft advisory conditions Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This system will be the start of multiple rounds of precipitation and building west-northwesterly swell through the weekend into early next week.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

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Wed -- 12:03 AM PDT     3.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 05:47 AM PDT     5.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:33 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:10 PM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM PDT     5.19 feet High Tide
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Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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