Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM   Moonset 2:37 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 819 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon - .
Today - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: N 4 ft at 5 seconds, W 6 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Tonight - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 4 ft at 5 seconds, W 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 20 seconds. Sun - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Sun night - N wind 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: N 5 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 6 seconds, nw 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tue - NE wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 4 seconds, nw 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed - NW wind around 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 4 seconds, nw 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed night - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 4 seconds, nw 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds.

PZZ300 819 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of cape blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. Conditions improve around Tuesday next week as the thermal trough gets disrupted by an upper level pattern change.

FXUS66 KMFR 181130 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 414 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

UPDATE
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION
Model agreement is very good into Friday, with the main points of uncertainty being the strength of a seasonable/relatively weak trough Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night, and (with a larger extent of uncertainty) another at the end of the forecast, around Friday night into next Saturday.

Today looks to be the warmest out of the next 7 days, with readings near to several degrees above normal, which will be near the levels reached yesterday. After a solid week of much warmer and drier than normal weather, the shift to seasonable conditions for the next week will be noticeable. The other main characteristic, at least through Wednesday, will be continued stronger than normal afternoon into evening breezes, with winds mainly out of the west to northwest. Winds this afternoon will be stronger than yesterday (with gusts at 15 to 30 mph), almost as strong late in the day Sunday through Tuesday, then possibly at a slightly stronger peak for Wednesday.

Regarding precipitation, the chances will be late tonight into Sunday morning for Coos and northern Douglas counties with a few hundredths of an inch possible, then first and most significantly in that same area with the aforementioned cold front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, extending across at least southern Oregon Tuesday night into Wednesday with amounts mainly up to a tenth of an inch. Some break between systems is likely Thursday, then the next trough will move southeast into the Pacific Northwest. There is a wide variety of solutions regarding the southern extent and strength of this trough, with the possibility of either a quick glancing blow of minimal impact or the necessity of raising the current slight chances of precipitation. At the least, temperatures Friday into the start of the Memorial Day weekend are likely to be slightly below normal to near normal with coastal highs near 60, lower 70s on the west side, lower to mid 60s on the east side, and mainly 50s in the mountains.

AVIATION
18/12Z TAFs...Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue to dominate in the majority of the region this morning through this evening. Per current satellite imagery, low stratus associated with the marine layer has remained both further offshore and more broken up than models suggested earlier today. Its not out of the question that the marine layer could move closer to the coast later this morning, but expecting the easterly component to winds along the coast to keep conditions VFR.

Today, expecting another mostly clear day, though some higher clouds will likely start to filter into the region from the north/northwest ahead of a weak frontal system. Breezy winds will pick up ahead of this boundary this afternoon into early this evening, with north to northwest winds gusting to 20-30 kts through most of the region. The weak front will then push the marine layer inland this evening into the overnight period, with MVFR ceilings looking likely along the Coos coast and possibly into the Umpqua Valley. Some of the higher resolution models are suggesting this stratus could spillover some into the Rogue Valley, but expect that these models are overdoing it and have left it out of the Medford TAF. -CSP

MARINE
Updated 200 AM Saturday, May 18, 2024...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend into early next week. Seas will be highest south of Cape Blanco around Brookings with waves up to 10-12 feet today. Meanwhile, areas near Florence and Coos Bay will see waves around 5 to 7 feet. Seas will be a combination of fresh swell out of the northwest and wind waves.

Seas will remain hazardous to small craft through the weekend and into early next week. The thermal trough will weaken slightly early Sunday morning through the afternoon, but seas will remain steep through the majority of the waters. It will then strengthen again late Sunday into Monday, with yet more steep to very steep waves.
Waves will then subside to around 4 to 6 feet across all the waters around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. -CSP

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

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Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Entrance
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Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:59 AM PDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:52 AM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM PDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,