Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minetto, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:01PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:49 PM EDT (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 8:09PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 651 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201709231545;;806710 FZUS51 KBUF 231051 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-231545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY
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location: 43.42, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231947
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
347 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to bring fair and warm weather through
the rest of the weekend and the first half of next week. An
approaching cold front may finally bring a chance of showers
Wednesday, with much cooler temperatures arriving for the second
half of the week in the wake of the cold front.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
High pressure continues to produce cloudless skies and warm
temperatures across western and north-central new york this
afternoon, and will remain in place into next week. As such, expect
fair skies this evening. The clear skies and light winds will once
again result in a favorable setup for the development of radiation
fog overnight, particularly as dewpoints will be slightly higher.

Most likely locales will be in the typical river valley locations,
as well as low-lying areas near ponds wetlands. With surface
dewpoints in the low 60s, expect temperatures overnight to only fall
into the low to mid 60s with warmest readings near lakes and cities.

As mentioned above, high pressure will remain firmly in control on
Sunday, bringing yet more sunshine. 850mb temps will be even warmer
than today, approaching +20c. As such, expect afternoon highs to
flirt with record levels, with readings climbing into the mid to
upper 80s across many locations, with low to mid 80s across higher
terrain.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
An anomalous 590 dm upper high will remain centered across the
region Sunday night. Through Monday and Tuesday, the center of
this high will shift off the east coast although strong ridging
of 587dm-588dm will remain across our region. A strong mid-level
low is forecast to lift out of the west coast trough to the
north plains region reaming to our west until the second half of
the week. At the surface, hurricane maria is forecast to be off
the coast of the carolinas by Tuesday night without any impacts
locally. High pressure ridged across western and north-central
new york will maintain dry and fair weather ahead of an
approaching cold front near the central great lakes.

This weather pattern will maintain mid-summer warmth across western
and north central new york through midweek with dry conditions
remaining through at least Tuesday night. Skies will be clear
outside of periodic thin high cloud cover and patchy morning stratus.

850 mb temperatures underneath the ridge will run between +18c and
+20c Monday then cooling some to around +17c by Tuesday. This
supports highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees Monday and only a
degree or two cooler on Tuesday. The warmest readings are expected
across inland areas away from local lake breeze circulations. It
also remain very humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This
will make it feel uncomfortably hot, despite the calender date with
heat index values pushing into the 90s if not the air temperatures.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged again Monday, particularly at buffalo and rochester.

Buffalo's record high for Monday is 87, while rochester's record
high is 92. Buffalo stands the best chance at breaking a daily
record high temperature with a forecast of 89 90 degrees. Ironically
buffalo made it the entire summer without hitting the 90 degree
mark, but now that we are officially in autumn, buffalo may make a
run at the 90 degree mark.

Nighttime low temperatures will be on the uncomfortable side due to
the high dewpoints. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s. The
humid airmass with light winds and mainly clear skies will also
result in areas of fog each night, especially in the valleys.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A major pattern change enters the picture for the second half of
next week going into the beginning of october. Global models are in
good agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will
make a reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door
for troughing across the great lakes and eventually the northeast,
as we have seen for much of the summer.

The ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper
great lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain
well above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still
about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A weak cold front will cross the region but moisture and upper
supper is limited, therefore rainfall amounts look minimal with only
scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. The 12z model suite
suggesting a consensus timing in the late Wednesday to early
Thursday timeframe. Much cooler, but drier air is expected to
spill across the region in the wake of the cold front passage,
this airmass change will get us back down to near more seasonal
values by Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s Thursday.

A fairly strong shortwave will dive across the lower great lakes
Friday, with another shot of cooler air. Highs Friday will be in the
low to mid 60s, with temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s
Saturday. The air aloft will be cool enough for some lake
enhancement, with a chance of showers both Friday and Saturday.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure will continue to bring clear skies through this
evening. The clear skies and light winds tonight will once again
result in areas of fog, particularly in the river valleys and in low-
lying areas, including kart and kfzy, after 06z. Fog should
dissipate around 12-13z Sunday, with moreVFR conditions expected
thereafter, as high pressure remains in place.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. Local ifr conditions each late night
and early morning with fog.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Smith
long term... Apffel tma
aviation... Wood
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 3 mi49 min W 8 G 12 79°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.5)53°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 31 mi49 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 71°F1 ft1017.9 hPa (-1.4)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi59 min WSW 9.7 G 9.7 73°F 72°F1 ft1018 hPa (-1.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi49 min NW 6 G 7 76°F 1019 hPa (-2.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi49 min 80°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY8 mi55 minWNW 610.00 miFair82°F55°F41%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm3CalmCalmNW43NW8W6W9W6
1 day agoNW7N6NE5N7N6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W3CalmCalmW6W5NW7NW7
2 days agoNW5W3W4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalm3NW1033NW7NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.