Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minetto, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday May 25, 2017 12:59 AM EDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 434 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain late. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201705250315;;148438 FZUS51 KBUF 242034 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 434 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ044-045-250315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY
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location: 43.42, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 250254
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1054 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
An upper level low will track across the region tonight and
tomorrow, spreading a period of rain late tonight and then through
Thursday across the region. This period will taper off to scattered
showers during the afternoon across western new york, and then the
evening across the north country. Temperatures will remain below
normal through Friday as the upper level low and trough pass
through.

Near term through Thursday night
An upper level low across the ohio valley will gradually move
toward the region overnight. An initial wave from this system
just clipped the niagara frontier earlier this evening. The
next (and more significant) wave of rain will continue to spread
across wny overnight with high forecast confidence in rain
south and west of rochester. Deep layer convergent lift from
both the leading edge of a 45 to 50 knot LLJ around 4k feet, and
upper level divergence from the left exit region of a 130 knot
upper level jet streaking along the eastern seaboard. This broad
scale lift ahead of the upper level low, within an environment
with pwat values between 1.0 and 1.5 inches, will bring a period
of moderate rain across our region. This is supported by a
consensus of model guidance and radar trends.

As the LLJ carries northward through the day Thursday, expect
the main slug of rain to into the north country Thursday morning
and then northward into canada in the afternoon. This will leave
just spotty showers across western new york Thursday afternoon
and early evening as the upper level low tracks across the
region.

Behind the upper level low Thursday night a westerly flow within an
inverted surface trough will bring scattered showers across the
region. Aloft there will still remain a trough, supporting the
showers. An upslope flow within a still saturated low level will
bring likely pops across the chautauqua ridge, and hills across sw
nys. This lower saturated layer will also bring low clouds Thursday
night, of which some will produce patchy fog, mainly across the hill
tops of SW nys.

Overall rainfall tonight through Thursday night will average around
an inch, slightly higher towards the niagara frontier where a
downslope SE flow slowing over northern erie and niagara county may
enhance rainfall totals, while slightly under an inch of rain is
expected across the north country.

Temperatures at night will dip into the 50s, warmest tonight across
the lake plain where a southeast will maintain upper 50s. Highs
Thursday will remain below normal as the upper level low tracks
across the region, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid
60s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Mid level low pushing through new england Friday. This will allow
shower activity to gradually diminish through the day, with only
some lingering shower activity in northwest upslope flow and wrap
around moisture. Friday will be a cool day with plenty of cloud
cover and scattered precipiation, with most highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

Shortwave ridging should bring an end to the precipitation by early
Friday night. The shortwave ridge will crest across the forecast
during the day Saturday, providing for what should be a dry day for
western and north-central new york. Saturday will be a warmer day
under a weak warm air advection pattern and increased sunshine. Most
highs in the lower 70s.

Precipitation chances look to increase later Saturday night as upper
low level drops out of central canada. The associated surface low
moves into the ohio valley by Sunday morning. Associated height
falls, forcing and moisture advection on the front flank of the
system will bring precipitation back into far western areas
beginning late Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Precipitation chances look much more favorable on Sunday, as an
upper level trough over the central rockies phases with a potent
shortwave dropping out of saskatchewan, resulting in yet another
broad low pressure system that will move across the great lakes
during the latter half of the weekend into the beginning of next
week. Falling heights and strong isentropic uplift on the eastern
flank of the approaching low should provide for another widespread
soaking rain Sunday, with showers once again lingering through
Monday and Tuesday as the large system meanders across the region,
with multiple upper level impulses passing overhead. Temperatures
will run in the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday into Monday. Cooler air
will filter into the region by Tuesday into Wednesday , as the axis
of the upper level trough begins to meander overhead.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions in place late this evening will gradually
deteriorate overnight as rain overspreads the region. CIGS will
lower to MVFR (and ifr in spots) as this rainfall persists and
moistens the boundary layer. The lowest conditions are likely to
occur Thursday morning with the steadiest rains and when the
flow is ene across the area. This flow can result in ifr CIGS at
buf iag roc, but only partially taps into upsloping which would
be more significant in a NE flow rather than an ene one. A
period of ifr conditions is also likely at jhw due to its higher
elevation.

A modest improvement in CIGS is likely Thursday afternoon as
the steady rain tapers off. Even so, expect widespread MVFR
conditions with patchy ifr CIGS possible.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr with scattered showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Sunday... MVFRVFR with showers likely.

Monday... MVFRVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Low pressure will slowly track from he ohio valley to near the
lower great lakes and western pennsylvania through Thursday.

This will result in an increasing ene flow to around 15 to 25
knots on the western end of lake ontario. These are not ideal
for building waves in the nearshores, but should be ample for
waves to reach 3 to 6 feet on the western u.S. Shores, with the
highest waves in canadian waters. There is a small craft
advisory in effect for western nearshores of lake ontario.

As the upper level low crosses the lower lakes Thursday night the
winds and waves will diminish on both lakes.

Tides coastal flooding
A deepening low pressure system will move closer with an
increasing ene flow on lake ontario. Winds will increase to 15
to 25 knots on Thursday, allowing waves to build to 3 to 6 ft by
Thursday afternoon. Given the high lake levels, this is
expected to generate lakeshore flooding from monroe county west
to the niagara river, with additional shoreline erosion likely.

A lakeshore flood warning is in effect from Thursday morning
through Thursday evening.

The higher wave action and associated flooding risk should be
relatively short-lived, however. The low will move over head
western new york by Thursday evening, resulting in sharply
diminishing winds, with waves subsiding shortly thereafter. A
baggy pressure gradient on the back side of the departing low
means that while northwesterly flow behind the low should
generate some choppy conditions Friday along the southern shores
of lake ontario, waves should remain in the 1-2 foot range, and
additional flooding issues are not expected.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 8 am Thursday to 2 am edt Friday
for nyz001>003.

Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt Thursday through
Thursday evening for nyz001>003.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 11 pm edt Thursday for
loz043.

Small craft advisory from 6 am Thursday to 2 am edt Friday
for loz042.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Apffel thomas
short term... Thomas
long term... Church wood
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel thomas
tides coastal flooding... Hitchcock wood apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 3 mi41 min ESE 6 G 8.9 67°F 1005.8 hPa49°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 31 mi59 min ESE 9.7 G 12 53°F 48°F1 ft1005.6 hPa (+0.2)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi69 min ESE 9.7 G 12 52°F 46°F1 ft1004.8 hPa (+0.0)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi59 min SE 12 G 20 67°F 1005.4 hPa (+0.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi41 min 69°F 1004.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY8 mi65 minVar 410.00 miOvercast66°F50°F56%1006.3 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm4SE3SE5SE5534E75564Calm33Calm4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW3SW5S7S5SW8S7W103S6S4S6CalmNE4E3CalmCalm
2 days ago455S7454SE356SE4SE5Calm36W11NW12
G23
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W9W5CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.