Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 6:11 AM   Moonset 10:52 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LOZ044 Expires:202405102115;;967690 Fzus51 Kbuf 101313 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 913 am edt Fri may 10 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-102115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 913 am edt Fri may 10 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely, then a chance of showers late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 110141 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 941 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unfortunately...cool and generally unsettled weather will remain in place through the weekend. Thats not to say that the next couple of days will be a washout...as there will be frequent rainfree periods as well. Daytime temperatures this weekend will be a solid 5 degrees BELOW typical mid May levels. While the mercury will TRY to get back towards normal for the first half of next week...there will still be a fair amount of showers around.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Showers linger late this evening for areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario. These showers will continue to disorganize through the overnight.

While a progressive shortwave ridge will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This scenario will be accompanied by a wedge of dry mid level air that will bring an end to the rain in most areas while promoting some clearing...mainly over the western counties. A ribbon of vorticity along an inverted trough may bring an uptick in shower activity toward daybreak east of Lake Ontario.

A robust shortwave and attendant sfc low will dive southeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. A swath of deep moisture ahead of this system will push across the western counties during the midday and afternoon...then across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late in the day and Saturday night. The resulting lift supplied by moderate hgt falls...low level convergence and being in the proximity of the left front quad of a nominal 90kt H25 jet with this scenario will prompt a renewal in shower activity as the day matures. There could even be a thunderstorm over the western counties.

The most widespread and persistent shower activity will be over the western counties during the afternoon. Dry weather with some sunshine can even be expected for the Finger Lakes before conditions deteriorate
It will remain cool
as temperatures on Saturday will top out within a few degrees of 60.

Showery weather will then linger through much of Saturday night...as the core of a H5 low with its -24c temps will pass directly across our region.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Shower will slowly diminish from west to east Sunday as the mid- level low exits off to our southeast. Overcast skies will then overtime begin to break up revealing some sunshine by late Sunday afternoon
Otherwise
a cool day will be felt with highs in the upper 50s across the higher terrain to low 60s.

Sunday night...shortwave ridge briefly builds in which should deliver dry weather for much of the overnight hours. The next feature of interest will be an occluded front approaching the eastern Great Lakes from the northwest early Monday morning. This boundary will slowly ooze into the forecast area with showers becoming 'likely', and the potential for some rumbles of thunder. It will not be quite as cool Monday with temperatures peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday night...this is where the forecast gets a bit more murky in regards to the progression of the front through the region. It will all depend on the interaction of a mid-level low spinning over the Midwest and another low located over James Bay. At this point...there are various model solutions ranging from very wet(GFS)
weather to it turning progressively drier by the middle of the week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central Plains Friday.

Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday, supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead.

As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday night thorugh much of Thursday.

The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through Friday as warm front approaches the area.

Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures will have rebounded to slightly above normal.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
While VFR weather will be found throughout the region through at least midday Saturday...there will be some rain to contend with. For the rest of the evening...dissipating showers will be focused on the eastern Lake Ontario area. This area of weather will taper off during the course of tonight with only a couple showers possible east of Lake Ontario after midnight.

VFR conditions Saturday morning will deteriorate during the midday and afternoon
as showers will redevelop
particularly over the western counties. The increasing coverage of the showers and possible thunderstorms will be accompanied by CIGs that will lower to MVFR levels.

Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in coverage.
Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting.

MARINE
Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Montague, NY,