Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minetto, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:46PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:41 PM EST (00:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Wed Feb 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain early, then rain. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of snow in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain with a chance of snow during the day, then rain likely Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain during the day, then rain likely with a chance of snow Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201802211600;;316263 FZUS51 KBUF 211138 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-211600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY
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location: 43.42, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 220006
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
706 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
A weak system passing by to our south will bring some limited mixed
precipitation to parts of the region tonight with an accumulating
snowfall anticipated for to the southern tier and interior portions
of the finger lakes late tonight and Thursday. Yet another low
pressure system will then bring another round of mainly rain to our
area on Friday. Otherwise... Temperatures will still remain near to
above normal through the end of the week.

Near term through Thursday
Strong canadian high pressure will build across the great lakes and
southern ontario tonight and Thursday... While a wave of low pressure
will pass by to our south via the ohio valley and virginias. While
some model disagreement still persists on the exact track and
northward extent of this latter system... In general the 12z guidance
has come into better overall agreement on the above... With the
latest GFS still a bit weaker further south... But also trending
notably toward the wetter and further north NAM and gem solutions.

In addition... Most guidance is also coming around to a colder
overall solution that would support an initial brief wintry mix of
freezing rain and sleet later tonight and early Thursday across the
southern tier... Followed by a quick shot of light to moderate
accumulating snowfall across our southernmost two tiers of zones
during the day Thursday... While areas further to the north only see
the chance for a little light snow during Thursday given what should
be a rather sharp northern edge to the steadier precipitation.

With the model consensus improving and converging toward the above
solution... Forecast confidence in a short-lived round of light icing
across the southern tier has increased for later tonight and Thursday...

with this then likely to be followed by a general snowfall of 2-4"
3-5" through mid Thursday afternoon. With this in mind... A winter
weather advisory will be hoisted for our three western southern tier
counties for the second half of tonight and much of Thursday. Snowfall
amounts and probabilities on Thursday should then quickly diminish
with increasing northward extent across the remainder of the region...

with some lighter snowfall accumulations of 1-3" likely from southern
erie and wyoming counties eastward across interior portions of the
finger lakes... And just a chance for some light snow spotty light
rain and little if any accumulation found further to the north.

With respect to temperatures... Continued steady cold air advection
tonight will allow temperatures to drop back to the lower to mid
20s areawide... With highs on Thursday then ranging through the 30s.

In spite of the much colder airmass... Such readings will still
actually be a little above average for this time of year.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
The prevailing flow aloft Thursday night through Saturday night will
feature a sw-ne oriented jet stream generally stretching from the
desert southwest into the central great lakes region. The result at
the surface will be a number of relatively weak troughs lows.

The first feature will already be east of the region by Thursday
night while surface high pressure moves from the northern great
lakes region east across southern ontario and quebec. This will
result in a temporary break in any precipitation across western and
central ny for Thursday night with weak subsidence in place.

The break will be short-lived however as another feature moves in.

Although the surface pattern looks relatively weak, moisture will
will be tapped from the gulf of mexico, with the potential for
another decent precipitation event at least toward the ny pa line.

Although the details will likely change, overall it looks like some
areas could briefly start out with snow or a very brief period of
freezing precipitation before quickly changing over to rain on
Friday.

Another surface high pressure system follows with a dry period
expected for most of Friday night and Saturday. A more significant
synoptic low should have developed by this time over the plains.

This low, a result of the upper level disturbance currently moving
down the bc coast, should deepen as it moves toward the northern
great lakes Saturday night. The result will be increasing chances
for rain, with widespread rain expected Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A low pressure system will eject from the four corners region
Saturday across the great lakes by Sunday. The result should be a
chance of widespread rainfall Sunday ahead of the approaching low
pressure system. As the low passes by to our northwest, expect
decent southwest winds to pick up behind in the cold advection
behind the front. Forecast models continue to advertise the
possibility (last several runs of the GFS and today's 12z ec) of a
strong or high wind event for the typical areas northeast of lake
erie on Sunday behind the cold front passage. Have added the mention
to the hwo for now.

Quiet and drier weather returns Monday with surface high pressure
building over the ohio valley. Highs will remain above climo (+5f -
+10f) with the daytime highs in the mid and upper 40s likely for
most locations for the first half of next week. Sunday will likely
be the warmest day, so long as we briefly break into the warm
sector, with at least 50s possible.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
While conditions have improved toVFR for most of the TAF sites this
evening... Deteriorating conditions are anticipated regionwide later
tonight and Thursday. In the meantime... MVFR CIGS will persist until
about 03z across parts of the north country... With ifr to MVFR cigs
also possible across the southern tier. Speaking of which... Have
been forced to go with a rarely used nil TAF for kjhw due to
observation equipment that has not been reporting for several days.

Safety concerns played a major role in this decision... Especially
given the erratic CIGS and potential for mixed precipitation at this
elevated site during the TAF period.

A stalled frontal boundary over the mid atlantic region will become
active later tonight and Thursday as a wave riding northeast along
the boundary will spread lower CIGS and mixed precipitation
northward from pennsylvania. MVFR conditions will push back to the
north in the process... With ifr CIGS likely for the southern tier.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow or rain.

Friday... Deterioration to MVFR with rain developing... With a very
brief wintry mix possible at the onset.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR MVFR with additional periods of rain
developing... Which may be mixed with a little snow across the
north country.

Monday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
In the wake of a strong cold front, a brisk westerly to northwesterly
flow will continue across lake ontario through early this evening...

before diminishing and veering to northerly northeasterly tonight as
high pressure builds into the region. This will bring a round of
advisory-worthy conditions to southeastern portions of lake ontario
through the first half of tonight... For which small craft advisories
remain in place. Moderate northeasterlies to easterlies will then
persist across lake ontario through Thursday... Before increasing
and potentially leading to another round of advisory-worthy conditions
across the western half of the lake Thursday night.

Hydrology
With much colder air arriving and only very light rain expected
to come to an end by the end of the day... The flood risk across
the north country appears minimal through the rest of the day...

and this is reflected in river point forecasts which now barely
bring the black river at watertown to action stage... And keep
all other forecast points below action levels. While we will
still leave the flood watch up through early this evening to
cover any lingering potential for ice jams and related flooding
along waterways... The chances for such appear fairly low as of
this writing.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for
nyz019>021.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for loz043-044.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Zaff
long term... Church
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr
hydrology... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 3 mi41 min W 19 G 25 1033.6 hPa (+3.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi41 min WNW 9.9 G 12 37°F 1035.9 hPa (+3.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi41 min 37°F 1035.1 hPa (+3.6)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY8 mi47 minW 710.00 miOvercast36°F0°F%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm4CalmCalmS10S10S9S11S10S8S8S9S10S10SW10NW14NW12W10W13W13W11NW14W11W7
1 day ago34SE4SE3S5S10S9S3S5SE4SE4CalmSE3SE3SE3S3SE3SE3SE5SE4CalmS3SE3SE3
2 days agoCalmSE3SE4SE654SE5SE5SE8SE76SE54S7--S7SE6S9
G14
436SE6SE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.