Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minetto, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 4:31PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:53 AM EST (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:47AMMoonset 2:14PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 445 Pm Est Tue Dec 12 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Periods of lake effect snow in the morning, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots overnight. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201712130415;;797959 FZUS51 KBUF 122145 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 445 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-130415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY
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location: 43.42, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 130929
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
429 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Synopsis
A cold northwesterly flow will result in continued lake effect snow
and blowing snow across the region today. A short break is possible
this coming evening before another weak system moves into the region
tonight. Yet another system with both some lake effect and
widespread snow will move in by Friday and last through least part
of the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Northwest flow in the wake of a departing surface low over the gulf
of maine continues to drive multi-banded lake effect snow over the
southern lakeshores.

Off lake erie, a single stronger bands remains embedded within
weaker multibands. The strongest band across central chautauqua
county has a lake huron connection supporting snowfall rates of up
to a half inch per hour across portland and stockton. The bands
should migrate back north in a weakening state after daybreak as the
a clipper approaches the ohio valley. Lake effect warnings will
remain in place through today with 4-7 inches expected in the most
persistent lake snows.

Off lake ontario, multibanded snow also continues across the
southern lakeshores in northwest flow. A connection to georgian bay
continues to provide additional support for an embedded stronger
band shifting across northern cayuga near 4am. Upslope flow over the
tug continues some higher returns also with snow rates in both of
these two areas running a half inch per hour. Winter storm warnings
remain here due to some lingering synoptic snows east of lake
ontario with additional snowfall also 4-7 inches mainly from western
wayne into southern jefferson counties. Further west, niagara,
orleans and genesee counties continue to see several weak bands which
may produce up to an additional 2 inches with reduced visibilities
through midday. Winter weather advisories remain in place there
while the advisories for allegany, livingston and ontario have been
cancelled will only an additional trace to an inch expected through
this morning. The arctic airmass will keep cold temps in place
today. Highs will only reach the mid teens to low 20s for wny but
only mid teens east of lake ontario. Lingering northwest breeze will
hold wind chills within a few degrees either side of zero.

A clipper, shifting southeast across minnesota this morning is
forecast to reach the ohio valley later today then shift south of ny
across pa tonight. Weak synoptic forcing in the presence of
plentiful 925-700 mb moisture on the north side of the clipper will
bring a widespread light snow across western ny and finger lakes
tonight. Any lingering weak lake effect southeast of lake ontario
should be overtaken by forcing from the synoptic scale clipper snow
by midnight. The eastern lake ontario region is expected to miss out
on this system tracking to the south. The arctic airmass with
surface temps dipping into the low teens to single digits tight
should support slr of 20:1 or better. Blended QPF ranging from 0.05-
0.15 should yield around an inch across the finger lakes with 2 to
perhaps as high as 4 inches for wny. No headlines are expected for
these light amounts. The clipper will create light and variable
winds over our region overnight so wind chills will be negligible.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
The clipper system will be moving off the jersey coast Thursday
morning and associated moisture will be moving away from
western central ny. High pressure will move across the ohio valley
Thursday and NW flow is expected across the eastern great lakes. Dry
conditions upstream and low inversion heights will limit lake effect
snow showers Thursday afternoon. As winds back and become more
westerly Thursday night into Friday, moisture will increase off the
long fetch of the lakes. Lake effect snow showers will increase
however accumulations will be minimal as dry mid-level air keep
bands weak until moisture returns Friday.

A closed low will drop south across ontario Friday and an associated
surface low will move across the northern great lakes. Winds will
back further and warm air advection aloft will produce snow showers
across the region. As the closed low becomes an open wave Friday
night, strong lift and lake enhancement will likely produce heavy
lake effect snow downwind of the lakes. There is uncertainty as
to where the best placement of these lake bands will be at this
time but favorable conditions exist for possible
advisory warning criteria downwind of the lakes.

Temperatures warm slightly Friday with temperatures in the mid 20s.

Cloud cover and snow showers will keep temperatures fairly steady
into Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
A ridge builds in Saturday in the wake of a trough passage Friday
night. With cold air and moisture in place Saturday morning behind
the trough, lake effect snows will be ongoing downwind of the
eastern great lakes. However, the ridge and warm advection quickly
move in during the day Saturday, which will shut down any lingering
lake snows.

With downstream blocking finally relaxing a bit, the persistent cold
air that we've been experiencing is expected to lessen a bit. This
should allow for temperatures to begin moderating over the weekend
and into early next week. Some areas may even see temperatures a bit
above normal. The pattern however remains fairly active, shortwaves
will provide a few chances for snow showers, and possibly some mixed
precipitation.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
Lake snows south of both lakes will continue to result in MVFR ifr
visibilities and CIGS thorugh about 18z. Kart also is seeing ifr but
more due to wraparound moisture in the wake of the departing surface
low over the gulf of maine.

Lake snows will gradually diminish this afternoon with a brief
improvement toVFR by the end of the day. Tonight, another clipper
will shift south of ny but will bring back additional widespread
light snow and ifr especially toward the southern half of western ny
after 00z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday... Several systems will move across the
region over the course the the week and weekend with both widespread
snow and localized lake effect with resulting ifr conditions.

There will be several periods ofVFR between systems.

Marine
A deepening surface low continues to move northeast across the gulf
of maine this morning as an anomalously deep upper level trough
plows into the lower great lakes region. Behind the low, multi-
banded lake effect snow in northwest flow will continue into today.

Small craft advisory conditions continue on lake ontario and lake
erie through today.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for
nyz003>008.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
nyz001-002-011.

Lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est this evening for
nyz012-019-020-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for
loz042-043.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Thursday for loz044-
045.

Synopsis... Smith zaff
near term... Smith zaff
short term... Hsk
long term... Church tma
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 3 mi54 min NW 24 G 32 18°F 999.5 hPa (+1.5)13°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi54 min W 17 G 20 16°F 1002.4 hPa (+1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi54 min 15°F 1002.2 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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SE11
G15
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G12
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G21
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G31
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G47
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N12
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NE6
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S11
G20
W25
G33
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G27
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G31
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G36
W24
G30
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G17
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G22
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G21
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G19
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W6
NW9
G14
NW12
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY8 mi60 minNW 12 G 190.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist16°F12°F84%999.4 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE44SE4E5CalmS3SW6SW10W14
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SW13SW15SW12SW12SW13SW13SW12NW8NW12
G19
1 day agoNW5N6N11NE5N9NW8--N6N6N4NE3E3E3E434E5456SE5SE54SE4
2 days agoW10SW11W10SW13
G19
SW9
G17
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G25
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W11
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G19
SW11SW7S10SW10SW12
G20
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G20
SW10SW13SW13
G19
SW11SW11W9SW4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.