Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minetto, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905230915;;305286 Fzus51 Kbuf 230214 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1014 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-230915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1014 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minetto, NY
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location: 43.42, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230609
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
209 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Showers and strong thunderstorms will increase in coverage area
across the region today, ahead of a cold front that will sweep
across the area later this afternoon and early evening. Warm and
humid conditions today will be replaced by cooler, and less humid
conditions for Friday... In generally rain free weather. The next
weather system will bring more showers Friday night to our area,
with showers and thunderstorms again passing over the area Saturday.

Near term through today
Initial round of showers have passed across our region this early
morning, with now a brief clearing trend developing. Light southerly
winds will continue through the remainder of tonight.

Given the overall warm advection regime... Lows tonight will be
substantially warmer than those of the past couple of nights... With
minimum temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across the north
country to near 60 along the lake erie shoreline.

On Thursday the warm front and any isolated attendant showers storms
will finish pushing across our area during the morning... And may be
followed by a brief relative lull for a few hours. After that time...

the combination of diurnal heating destabilization of an increasingly
warm and more humid airmass within the warm sector... Increasing height
falls aloft... And the approach of a prefrontal trough should lead to
renewed convective development by late morning or midday... With this
initially developing and focusing to the southeast of the stabilizing
influence of lake erie... Before growing pushing northeast across the
genesee valley finger lakes and into the north country during the early
to mid afternoon hours... With the bulk of this then sliding east of our
region late. Given the combination of favorable moisture... Lift... And
instability that is expected... Have further increased pops associated
with this round of convection to the lower end of the categorical range.

With respect to the potential for strong to severe storms... A
strengthening westerly flow regime aloft will lead to copious amounts
of shear areawide... With 0-6 km bulk shear values of at least 50 knots
expected... And some the short term guidance suggesting that this could
reach as high as 60-70 knots. With respect to instability... Diurnal
destabilization out ahead of the prefrontal trough is currently projected
to lead to the MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j kg in those areas south of
lake ontario away from stabilizing lake influences... With localized
pockets of 1500-2000 j kg possible. Such a combination of shear and
instability should lead to the development of increasingly organized
convection and an attendant risk for all forms of severe weather.

Of these... Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary
threats by far... Though the amount of available shear and low lcl
heights would also be supportive of a small... But nonzero risk for
a tornado. Given all this... The current slight risk of severe storms
advertised in spc's day 2 convective outlook looks very reasonable...

particularly from the southern tier eastward across the finger lakes
where the shear-instability parameter space appears most favorable.

Behind the prefrontal trough and its attendant convection... Increasing
drying and subsidence will make for a much less favorable environment
for additional convection... And as such would expect the trailing cold
front (as is so commonly the case for our area) to produce little
more than some isolated to scattered showers as it works into far
western new york late in the day. The bigger story in the wake of
the prefrontal trough will actually be a brief but notable period of
stronger southwesterly to westerly winds downwind of lake erie... Where
downward transport of higher momentum air from aloft should lead to a
round of 15-30 mph sustained winds along with gusts to 40-45 mph during
the early to mid afternoon hours... With these then quickly subsiding
as we head toward evening.

Short term tonight through Sunday night
The forcing responsible for the active weather Thursday afternoon
will quickly exit our region Thursday evening... As a 45-50kt low
level jet and deep moisture profile ahead of a cold front will make
its way across new england. While there may be some leftover showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening due to the actual cold
frontal passage... The trend will definitely be for benign weather
with dying convection rapidly giving way to partial clearing. In
fact... All of the forecast area should be precipitation free by
midnight. Meanwhile... The somewhat muggy conditions (dew points in
the 60s) will be replaced by a more comfortable canadian airmass
with tds falling back into the low 50s by daybreak.

Ridging at all levels will build across the lower great lakes on
Friday. The strong subsidence provided by the ridge and the
proximity of being under the right front exit region of a 150kt h25
jet will nearly guarantee dry weather with abundant sunshine. It
will be notably cooler (by more than 10 deg f) than Thursday
though... As a canadian airmass with single digit h85 temps will only
allow afternoon mercury readings to be in the mid to upper 60s.

While the bulk of Friday night will be rain free in most areas... A
baroclinic zone will become established over the great lakes region
courtesy of a broad storm system over the upper lakes and exiting
high pressure to our east. In fact... The forecast pops will be a
little higher than those advertised by many of the guidance
packages. Just cannot trust a warm front... Or in this case... The
semblance of one.

Saturday will be rather unsettled across our region. The
aforementioned warm front will press northwards across the region
during the first half of the day... Then a pre frontal trough will
make its way through during the afternoon. Much like the convective
environment from Thursday... Sfc based instability will be
unimpressive to the tune of 500-1000 j kg while a 45kt low level jet
will set the stage for 40-45kts of deep layer shear. This will
encourage any convection to become strong to severe... Especially
inland from the influences of a well established lake breeze off lk
erie. Have added a little enhanced wording to the package by
mentioning gusty winds with the likely convection. Also like
Thursday... It will be warm and humid ahead of the pre frontal trough
and subsequent cold front... With MAX temps of 75 to 80 over the
western counties where dew points will also be in the 60s.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage... A large sfc high will
gradually build across the forecast area during the day Sunday.

While this should support fair weather to end the weekend... There is
a fairly wide variance in solutions for this period... Including the
risk that the cold front will stall near or just south of the
southern tier. This would lend itself to a much more unsettled day
if it were to verify. Will compromise for now with low chc pops near
the pennsylvania border.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
A bubble of high pressure will build over the eastern great lakes
Monday and potentially bring a brief break between rain chances with
a mainly dry day. A warm front will move northeast across the
eastern great lakes Monday night with a chance of a few showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday the longwave trough will re-focus across
the northern plains, forcing downstream height rises across the
eastern united states. This will allow warmer and somewhat more
humid air to move back into the ohio valley and new england. Model
guidance has shown some run to run variability with the synoptic
scale details during this time period. In a general sense, one or
two low pressure systems will move through the great lakes later
Tuesday through Wednesday. These systems will bring an increase in
large scale forcing and a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
at times. High temperatures will move back into the 70s at least,
and possibly 80s if some of the warmer model guidance verifies.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
For the 06z tafsVFR flight conditions are found across the region,
with initial round of shower now to our east. The next round of
showers, and potential for stronger thunderstorms will arrive late
this morning and afternoon. The early timing of the cold front to
the west may limit the amount of thunderstorms across eastern taf
sites, but farther to the east... Greater daytime instability may
yield thunderstorms for kroc and kart... That may also produce strong
wind gusts. Timing for thunderstorms will be between 15z and 21z.

Behind the storms a cold front will sweep across the region. Wind
gusts this afternoon may near 35 or greater knots for kbuf kiag and
kroc. Cold air advection behind the front will continue breezy
westerly winds tonight. Lingering moisture will also lead to the
formation of a deck of MVFR range stratus across much of the taf
region by the end of Friday night.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure draped across new york state will drift eastward into
new england this afternoon... While low pressure advances across
minnesota. In between these two systems a moderate easterly flow will
continue across the lower great lakes... Though the strongest winds
and greatest wave action will remain confined to the open waters
of lake ontario. Winds will then turn southerly tonight and Thursday
morning as a warm front pushes across our region.

On Thursday southwesterly winds will increase within the warm sector
of a storm system... With winds likely to reach small craft criteria on
lake erie... And possibly the western half of lake ontario.

A cold front will then cross the lower great lakes late Thursday and
Thursday night... With brisk westerly winds behind this feature leading
to the continued possibility of advisory-level conditions on portions
of both lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Fries jjr thomas
short term... Rsh
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Thomas
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 3 mi46 min SSE 14 G 17 62°F 1017.6 hPa46°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 31 mi100 min SSE 9.7 G 12 48°F 42°F1017.8 hPa (-2.1)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi40 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 44°F 1017.8 hPa41°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi40 min ESE 4.1 G 6 59°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 60 mi46 min 57°F 1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY8 mi46 minVar 310.00 miOvercast61°F45°F56%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5NE5E433CalmS6SW3NE53E3Calm3SE6SE43S83
1 day agoW7W9W9NW11W10
G19
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W14W11W8NW7NW5NW4CalmCalm--W3
2 days agoSE5S5S5S7S8S6SW6SW6W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.