Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Snover, MI
May 21, 2024 10:58 PM EDT (02:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 6:21 PM Moonset 3:44 AM |
LHZ442 Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Mi- 1001 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 220000 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 800 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated storms are possible this afternoon/evening south of I-69, while locations along I-69 are most favored for development.
- Strong to severe storms are unlikely, but cannot rule out an overachieving storm or two that pose a marginally severe wind (60 mph gust) or hail (up to 1 inch diameter) threat.
- Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms remains for Southeast Michigan late tonight for damaging wind potential, but latest model trends support weakening activity upon arrival.
- One more chance for showers/storms Wednesday before a cooler and less humid airmass arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.
- Brief warm-up Friday with some additional chances for showers and storms through the weekend.
AVIATION
An isolated thunderstorm or two did initiate along the Lake Huron- Lake St Clair composite lake breeze boundary the past couple of hours. Convective activity has since waned along with boundary layer cumulus with downtrend in diabatic solar heating. A very strong anticyclonic vorticity dipole coupled to the strong low pressure system will pass directly through much of Lower Michigan tonight.
Active downward vertical motion in addition to warming in the 5.0 to 10.0 kft agl layer will yield VFR conditions throughout tonight.
Rolled back much of the precipitation mention in the tafs. Old convective remnant showers are expected to approach the northern taf sites 11-14Z and the Detroit tafs 13-16Z. Very low confidence in coverage and have included the mention as a Prob30. Non convective low level wind shear in the lowest 2.0 kft agl tonight and southwest winds Tuesday of 15 to 25 knots.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunder anticipated tonight. Low confidence in showers impacting DTW between 13-16Z 5/22.
Questionable coverage.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms 13-16Z Wednesday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
DISCUSSION...
A strong differential heating boundary has setup along I-69 this afternoon as clouds struggled to mix out north of the interstate where 2m temperatures are still in the 70s (60s for The Thumb). Near- full insolation further south has helped guide readings into the mid 80s as dewpoints across Southeast Michigan settle in the low to mid 60s. 21.12Z KDTX RAOB revealed another low-level inversion which initially caps surface-based convection, but given that the 925 mb inversion is 3C cooler than Monday's with a higher 2m Td, SBCAPEs should eventually build into the 1000-1750 J/kg range (see 12Z HRRR ensemble mean and SPC MesoAnalysis). Main limiting factors are attributed to the initial synoptic setup and the 750-550 mb lapse rates.
Regarding the former, shortwave ridging is in-place for the start of the forecast period which delayed the development of a diurnal cumulus field. Resultant subsidence signal is well-defined in forecast soundings and contributes to a muted convection response in the 12Z CAMs. The mid-level lapse rate issue suggests very isolated coverage of thunderstorms late this afternoon as a secondary/weak warm layer could further suppress convective depths and CAPE values.
All told, the afternoon forecast narrative lends heavily on a surface convergence axis tied to the aforementioned thermal gradient. This serves as the primary focus for CI, but weak 0-6 km bulk shear limits overall lifecycles as storms generally drift toward the northeast. Did make some slight adjustments to PoPs to include a minimum of Slight Chance mentions across the region and a wider swath of Chance PoPs along the boundary. Additional convective development is also possible further south where free-convection may arise from the strongest surface heating. Localized outflow boundaries and lake breezes interactions could also spur additional convective action late today. Strong to severe storms are unlikely based on the current setup, but cannot rule out an overachieving storm or two that pose a marginally severe wind or hail threat.
Any afternoon/evening convective development should decay by 10 PM followed by a period of dry/calm conditions. Attention then turns upstream to a negatively tilted amplifying shortwave trough closing off over SD/IA/MN. Impressive flow within its broad cyclonic shield will spread eastward overnight driving a flanking boundary and a line of well-organized convection across Lake Michigan, into western Lower. Questions remain regarding the integrity/longevity of the expected QLCS, but SPC has maintained the Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms for Southeast Michigan through the early morning hours on Wednesday. With the exception of the FV3, CAMs are quite bearish on storms (and even showers) surviving to the western CWA border late tonight as the boundary washes out and moisture quality degrades rapidly.
Upper level pattern becomes more progressive Wednesday as the upper low interacts with a stalled trough over Saskatchewan, a unified jet streak and the associated height falls work across Lower Michigan as the main cold frontal boundary gets shoved into the Great Lakes.
Can't rule out a bit of shower activity, but a low-impact FROPA is most likely. Post-frontal conditions offer a drier and cooler forecast for Thursday.
A well-advertised Pacific wave crosses the High Plains into Minnesota Friday with the warm advection arm extending into Southern Lower. Ensembles have trended higher with max temperatures Friday peaking in the mid 80s. Storms are also possible during the evening and overnight hours with the next cold front. Surface ridge builds in across the eastern Plains Saturday morning, expanding into Michigan as the day progresses. This draws a cooler and drier airmass until a VortMax ejects across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Sunday bringing areas of rainfall to close out the weekend with near-seasonable temperatures. Thermal troughing hangs around early next week before strong longwave ridge amplification gets underway across western CONUS. Omega block configuration is possible through the end of next week.
MARINE...
A strengthening low pressure system will lift from Iowa through western Lake Superior Wednesday morning while pulling a warm front northward through lower Michigan. There is a chance of some isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but chances increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Wednesday ahead of it. Winds increase out of the south to 25 knots ahead of the associated cold front Wednesday, then veer to the west Wednesday night into Thursday but settling back down to 15 knots. A small craft advisory will be needed for Saginaw Bay Wednesday as the winds funneling out of the bay have a higher chance to reach 25 knots.
CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for May 21-22:
May 21st: Detroit 92 (set in 1977)
Flint 93 (set in 1921)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 94 (set in 1977)
May 22nd: Detroit 90 (set in 1994)
Flint 91 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 89 (set in 1992)
Here are the record high low temperatures for May 21-22:
May 21st: Detroit 71 (set in 2013)
Flint 67 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 66 (set in 2021)
May 22nd: Detroit 67 (set in 1941)
Flint 65 (set in 1977)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 68 (set in 1977)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421- 422-441.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 800 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated storms are possible this afternoon/evening south of I-69, while locations along I-69 are most favored for development.
- Strong to severe storms are unlikely, but cannot rule out an overachieving storm or two that pose a marginally severe wind (60 mph gust) or hail (up to 1 inch diameter) threat.
- Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms remains for Southeast Michigan late tonight for damaging wind potential, but latest model trends support weakening activity upon arrival.
- One more chance for showers/storms Wednesday before a cooler and less humid airmass arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.
- Brief warm-up Friday with some additional chances for showers and storms through the weekend.
AVIATION
An isolated thunderstorm or two did initiate along the Lake Huron- Lake St Clair composite lake breeze boundary the past couple of hours. Convective activity has since waned along with boundary layer cumulus with downtrend in diabatic solar heating. A very strong anticyclonic vorticity dipole coupled to the strong low pressure system will pass directly through much of Lower Michigan tonight.
Active downward vertical motion in addition to warming in the 5.0 to 10.0 kft agl layer will yield VFR conditions throughout tonight.
Rolled back much of the precipitation mention in the tafs. Old convective remnant showers are expected to approach the northern taf sites 11-14Z and the Detroit tafs 13-16Z. Very low confidence in coverage and have included the mention as a Prob30. Non convective low level wind shear in the lowest 2.0 kft agl tonight and southwest winds Tuesday of 15 to 25 knots.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunder anticipated tonight. Low confidence in showers impacting DTW between 13-16Z 5/22.
Questionable coverage.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for thunderstorms 13-16Z Wednesday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
DISCUSSION...
A strong differential heating boundary has setup along I-69 this afternoon as clouds struggled to mix out north of the interstate where 2m temperatures are still in the 70s (60s for The Thumb). Near- full insolation further south has helped guide readings into the mid 80s as dewpoints across Southeast Michigan settle in the low to mid 60s. 21.12Z KDTX RAOB revealed another low-level inversion which initially caps surface-based convection, but given that the 925 mb inversion is 3C cooler than Monday's with a higher 2m Td, SBCAPEs should eventually build into the 1000-1750 J/kg range (see 12Z HRRR ensemble mean and SPC MesoAnalysis). Main limiting factors are attributed to the initial synoptic setup and the 750-550 mb lapse rates.
Regarding the former, shortwave ridging is in-place for the start of the forecast period which delayed the development of a diurnal cumulus field. Resultant subsidence signal is well-defined in forecast soundings and contributes to a muted convection response in the 12Z CAMs. The mid-level lapse rate issue suggests very isolated coverage of thunderstorms late this afternoon as a secondary/weak warm layer could further suppress convective depths and CAPE values.
All told, the afternoon forecast narrative lends heavily on a surface convergence axis tied to the aforementioned thermal gradient. This serves as the primary focus for CI, but weak 0-6 km bulk shear limits overall lifecycles as storms generally drift toward the northeast. Did make some slight adjustments to PoPs to include a minimum of Slight Chance mentions across the region and a wider swath of Chance PoPs along the boundary. Additional convective development is also possible further south where free-convection may arise from the strongest surface heating. Localized outflow boundaries and lake breezes interactions could also spur additional convective action late today. Strong to severe storms are unlikely based on the current setup, but cannot rule out an overachieving storm or two that pose a marginally severe wind or hail threat.
Any afternoon/evening convective development should decay by 10 PM followed by a period of dry/calm conditions. Attention then turns upstream to a negatively tilted amplifying shortwave trough closing off over SD/IA/MN. Impressive flow within its broad cyclonic shield will spread eastward overnight driving a flanking boundary and a line of well-organized convection across Lake Michigan, into western Lower. Questions remain regarding the integrity/longevity of the expected QLCS, but SPC has maintained the Marginal to Slight Risk of severe storms for Southeast Michigan through the early morning hours on Wednesday. With the exception of the FV3, CAMs are quite bearish on storms (and even showers) surviving to the western CWA border late tonight as the boundary washes out and moisture quality degrades rapidly.
Upper level pattern becomes more progressive Wednesday as the upper low interacts with a stalled trough over Saskatchewan, a unified jet streak and the associated height falls work across Lower Michigan as the main cold frontal boundary gets shoved into the Great Lakes.
Can't rule out a bit of shower activity, but a low-impact FROPA is most likely. Post-frontal conditions offer a drier and cooler forecast for Thursday.
A well-advertised Pacific wave crosses the High Plains into Minnesota Friday with the warm advection arm extending into Southern Lower. Ensembles have trended higher with max temperatures Friday peaking in the mid 80s. Storms are also possible during the evening and overnight hours with the next cold front. Surface ridge builds in across the eastern Plains Saturday morning, expanding into Michigan as the day progresses. This draws a cooler and drier airmass until a VortMax ejects across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Sunday bringing areas of rainfall to close out the weekend with near-seasonable temperatures. Thermal troughing hangs around early next week before strong longwave ridge amplification gets underway across western CONUS. Omega block configuration is possible through the end of next week.
MARINE...
A strengthening low pressure system will lift from Iowa through western Lake Superior Wednesday morning while pulling a warm front northward through lower Michigan. There is a chance of some isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but chances increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Wednesday ahead of it. Winds increase out of the south to 25 knots ahead of the associated cold front Wednesday, then veer to the west Wednesday night into Thursday but settling back down to 15 knots. A small craft advisory will be needed for Saginaw Bay Wednesday as the winds funneling out of the bay have a higher chance to reach 25 knots.
CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for May 21-22:
May 21st: Detroit 92 (set in 1977)
Flint 93 (set in 1921)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 94 (set in 1977)
May 22nd: Detroit 90 (set in 1994)
Flint 91 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 89 (set in 1992)
Here are the record high low temperatures for May 21-22:
May 21st: Detroit 71 (set in 2013)
Flint 67 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 66 (set in 2021)
May 22nd: Detroit 67 (set in 1941)
Flint 65 (set in 1977)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 68 (set in 1977)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421- 422-441.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI | 35 mi | 59 min | SSE 4.1G | 54°F | 55°F | 29.74 | 54°F | |
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 42 mi | 59 min | NNE 2.9G | 60°F | 29.73 | 58°F | ||
| PBWM4 | 42 mi | 59 min | 60°F | 29.73 | ||||
| KP58 | 43 mi | 64 min | ESE 13 | 57°F | 29.75 | 55°F | ||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 44 mi | 59 min | 61°F | 29.73 | ||||
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 47 mi | 59 min | ESE 17G | 67°F | 29.69 | |||
| 45149 - Southern Lake Huron | 49 mi | 59 min | E 5.8 | 55°F | 49°F | 0 ft | 29.77 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCFS TUSCOLA AREA,MI | 24 sm | 24 min | ESE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.73 |
Detroit, MI,
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