Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:22PM Friday June 23, 2017 2:52 PM EDT (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:42AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1010 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy late in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Light showers and Thunderstorms likely late in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers late in the morning. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers until early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201706232115;;692741 FZUS53 KDTX 231410 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1010 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-232115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231705
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
105 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Aviation
Drier air is slowly working into southeast michigan, as winds shift
to the west northwest. Still, lingering standing water and
saturated ground will require much of the afternoon to mix
out low clouds, with clear mostly clear skies then around toward
sunset, persisting overnight. Winds will be light overnight, and
there is some concern fog could develop, especially mbs, but decided
against it with the short night and continued modest dry advection.

Cold air aloft tomorrow should promote a rapid CU up, with scattered
afternoon showers isolated thunderstorms possible.

For dtw... Borderline MVFR lowVFR CIGS to start, slowly lifting and
mixing out as the afternoon wears on, with mostly clear skies this
evening and tonight. West northwest winds generally around 10 knots
this afternooon, becoming light this evening and overnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft this afternoon, then
again tomorrow afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1123 am edt Fri jun 23 2017
update...

late morning surface analysis and radar mosaic indicated a prefrontal
trough outflow combination exiting SE michigan with the rest of the
heavy showers from this morning. The primary front remains diffuse
and embedded within the broad surface trough lingering over lower
michigan. Late morning surface observations indicate dewpoint still
in the lower 60s over all of lower michigan and even back into
southern wisconsin about in line with the 850 mb theta-e gradient. In
addition, thinning clouds and even a clearing trend taking place over
the western great lakes is expected to spread eastward and produce
surface heating and some recovery of instability in the western
fringes of the surface trough front. This points to redevelopment of
scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms through the
afternoon in SE michigan with coverage greatest generally along and
east of a line from bad axe to howell. This is good news for the tri
cities region where low end scattered coverage of lighter showers
will allow flooding to recede from the heavy rainfall that occurred
last night. The flood warning will remain in effect through early
afternoon considering the duration needed for flooding to diminish in
that area where up to 7 inches of rain was reported.

Prev discussion...

issued at 357 am edt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

deep layer moisture of tropical origin firmly entrenched across
southeast michigan early this morning. Moistening process augmented
by the earlier strong northward expansion of high mid-level theta-e
content. This theta-e gradient providing the southern flank of a
well defined convergence axis also marked by the slow southeastward
sag of an elongated frontal boundary that now stretches from saginaw
bay to southern wisconsin. Forced ascent anchored on this frontal
slope maintaining a heavy concentration of convection throughout
this corridor. Advancement of the front into a moisture laden
resident airmass should subsequently support a shift of convective
activity into southeast michigan through the mid-late morning hours.

Instability limited by both the earlier convective overturning and
an arrival near the nocturnal minimum, so attaining greater
convective organization will be a struggle. Given precipitable
water values near 2 inches, heavy rainfall will remain the primary
issue.

Actual frontal passage will lag the exit of the deepest moisture
axis by several hours. This will leave a short window early this
afternoon for some degree of pre-frontal airmass recovery, mainly
southeast of a howell to port huron line as dewpoints hover in the
upper 60s. Assuming sufficient instability emerges, renewed
development of shallow line of convection could yield a quick shot
of rain thunder for a few locales before the front sweeps southeast.

Highs today in the vicinity of 80 degrees most locations. Turning
notably drier from northwest to southeast with the frontal passage,
as dewpoints eventually drop into the 50s all locations by this
evening.

Gradual reduction in mid level heights through the weekend period,
as broad upper troughing expands over the region. This will leave
weekend conditions defined as cooler and less humid. Steady
downward spiral of the thermal structure throughout the weekend,
with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out in the middle single digits
by Sunday. This will leave afternoon temperatures in the low-mid
70s Saturday, then potentially struggle to even reach 70f by Sunday
depending on cloud cover . The arrival of a weak perturbation timed
coincident with peak heating may support isolated to scattered
coverage of showers rumble of thunder? Saturday afternoon. The
corridor along and north of i-69 will be more favorably positioned to
witness some development. A stronger wave pivots across
north central lower mi Saturday night into Sunday morning. Given the
lack of a diurnal contribution to augment any uptick in forcing,
precipitation potential appears slim during this time.

Marine...

showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much of the area
early today ahead of a cold front. Quieter weather is then expected
late today and tonight. West to northwest flow will develop behind
the front this afternoon and evening, and persist through the
weekend as broad low pressure remains in place over the great lakes.

Speeds are expected to remain modest, but gusts may just top 20
knots over western lake erie both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Hydrology...

heavy rainfall that occurred from late yesterday evening through
early this morning has caused widespread flooding across midland
county, and across a portion of bay and huron counties. This
flooding will be aggravated by additional rainfall through about
8am, as an additional one to two inches of rain falls. For the
remainder of southeast michigan, showers and thunderstorms over
central michigan will slide southward through the morning and early
afternoon as a cold front drops through the area. Less training of
storms is expected than what occurred over central michigan
overnight. Rainfall may be heavy at times, however, with rainfall
exceeding one inch in some areas. Dry weather is expected late today
and tonight.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
update... ... .Bt
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi53 min WSW 7 G 8 70°F 1001.7 hPa (+0.3)
45163 43 mi53 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 67°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi73 min WSW 7 G 8.9 69°F 1002.4 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 63 mi73 min W 4.1 G 7 75°F 1001.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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NW11
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G14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi57 minW 710.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1002.4 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi60 minW 710.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1002.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi61 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F64°F70%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9SW6W7SW4S4SW5SW7S18
G25
S9SW5NW10
G16
CalmSE3CalmS7S4SE5S8W5SW7W9W8
G17
W8
G15
1 day agoCalmSW5SW6S7S7S6S4S3S4S4S3SE3SE6S7S6S7S8CalmS5CalmCalmSW5SW8SW9
2 days agoW5W16
G21
W11
G16
W10SW7SW10SW5SW4SW5SW4SW6SW4W5W4W4W4W4NW3N4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.