Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 10:05 PM EDT (02:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:29PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 929 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning becoming light and variable. Light rain and light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201903210915;;676864 FZUS53 KDTX 210129 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 929 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-210915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210046
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
846 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Update
Widespread rain extending from SW lower mi across the saginaw valley
and thumb region is occurring within a ribbon of enhanced mid level
deformation preceding the upper wave now plunging southward across
wisconsin and NRN illinois. This deformation forcing will pivot
across SE mi during the rest of the evening into the early overnight
period. There has been some wet snow mixed in with the rain at times
from grand rapids up into the midland area where enhanced ascent has
cooled the boundary layer a bit. With the forcing expected to wane
slightly as it pivots across the area and given the slightly warmer
boundary layer over most of SE mi, suspect that the depth of the warm
air will be sufficient in keeping precip primarily rain. The second
region of rain showers across ERN wisconsin is tied more toward the
ascent ahead of the mid level PV feature. The bulk of this forcing
will primarily slide southwest of the area overnight, although ample
low level moisture and sfc low pressure crossing lower mi overnight
may support some lingering drizzle light rain showers. Overall, the
going forecast is in good shape. Just some minor adjustments for
timing the more widespread rain will be made.

Prev discussion
Issued at 656 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
aviation...

the light rain will advance across the area during the rest of the
evening. There will be enough boundary layer cooling around mbs for
some wet snow to mix in at times. Cooling moistening of the low
levels has lead to a drop in ceilings to low end MVFR and ifr across
most of southern michigan. While the widespread rain will exit to
the east northeast in the 03z to 06z time frame, ample low level
moisture and weak boundary layer flow will support some fog and
drizzle in ifr CIGS during the overnight. Sfc low pressure, centered
over SRN lower mi overnight, will exit off to the east Thursday
morning. Developing west-northwest flow in the wake of this system
will allow some improvement in the CIGS vsby during the late
morning early afternoon as better mixing gets underway.

For dtw... The more persistent rainfall will remain generally north
and west of metro this evening. There will however be periodic
showers and some drizzle into the overnight. Low level moisture will
advance into metro from the west this evening. The improvement in
ceilings seen over the past couple hours will be short lived.

Upstream observations and recent model soundings suggest a fairly
high probability for some ifr ceilings during the overnight into
thurs morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft tonight and Thursday morning.

Moderate Thursday afternoon and evening.

* high in precip type being all rain.

Prev discussion...

issued at 321 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
discussion...

warm advection beneath a canopy of increasingly opaque cloud cover
has allowed temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 40s this
afternoon, which is right on target for the third week of spring.

Concurrently, steering flow around the upper-level low spinning over
lake superior is drawing a lower amplitude wave northeast and out of
the ohio valley. Slightly higher moisture content characterized by
pwats around 0.5" is proving sufficient to generate widespread
showers in the presence of deep isentropic ascent. This wave of
forcing will continue for the next several hours before
transitioning to a narrower fgen type of forcing as the
aforementioned PV anomaly pivots through late. Lingering showers and
drizzle will taper off from west to east early Thursday morning as
dry northwest flow builds in from the west. Threat of drizzle
persisting much after sunrise appears quite low as boundary layer flow
becomes anticyclonic beneath increasingly confluent flow aloft.

Nonetheless, any clearing will be brief as the lowering inversion
and recent rain suggests widespread diurnal stratocu will develop
during the morning. Highs recover into the mid upper 40s once again
with 850mb temps settling slightly below zero. Trailing wave
amplifies as it propagates across lake huron and the lower great
lakes late Thursday night through early Friday morning. Resident
dry airmass will be supportive of wet bulb cooling in the boundary
layer. Considered along with nocturnal timing, a brief round of non-
accumulating or very light snow accumulation is likely during this
time window. Muted diurnal response during Friday as cold advection
forces 850mb temperatures toward -10c by evening. No argument with
12z guidance suggesting highs in the upper 30s.

Thermal trough will be working east out of the region early Saturday
allowing a slight warm up through the weekend back to around 50 by
Sunday. Helping this recovery will be an area of high pressure at
the surface sliding southeast of the state while mid level ridge
axis passes overhead. This will allow west-southwest flow to advect
warmer air into the area while heights builds. Next chance of precip
will come Sunday night as a northern stream trough drops a cold
front through lower mi. Some shortwave energy is shown to eject out
of the southern stream trough over the rockies and along the front.

Temperatures will allow precip to start as rain before changing to
snow overnight. We'll reside on the cool side of the jet to start
the new week with highs hovering around 40 til mid week. Expansive
area of high pressure will keep the area dry through this time as
well.

Marine...

modest winds will hold across the region Thursday, before
strengthening from the northwest Thursday night. Strongest northwest
winds noted Friday, when a period of gusts to low end gales will be
possible. Expect ice breakup to continue with the changing wind
conditions and relatively mild weather.

Hydrology...

ongoing light rain will continue through the evening. Rainfall
totals of two to four tenths of an inch are expected. Most mainstem
river levels have subsided significantly over the last several days.

The additional precipitation will only serve to slow the steady
decrease with no additional river flooding expected. Susceptible
collection areas, that likely already contain run-off water, will
swell with the additional precipitation.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi66 min SSE 11 G 13 34°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi86 min SSE 14 G 17 35°F 1015.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 63 mi86 min S 7 G 8 34°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi70 minSE 65.00 miDrizzle37°F35°F93%1014.6 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi73 minSE 63.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F35°F97%1015.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi71 minESE 35.00 miUnknown Precip35°F33°F93%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW4CalmSW4W4W4W4NW4NW5NW3NW3CalmW3CalmW5NW7W5W8W7SW10S3W9SW10SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.