Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:01PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:52 PM EST (00:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 326 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy early in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of flurries early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy until late afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201812111000;;596310 FZUS53 KDTX 102026 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 326 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-111000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 102346
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
646 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Aviation
A drier and slightly warmer low level southwest flow working to
gradually ease the back end of the stratus deck across southeast
michigan this evening. This will leave a window of clear skies early
tonight for at least ptk northward. Potential does exist for
existing stratus residing over northeast indiana to lift aggressive
back into the region given the prevailing flow. In addition, renewed
development of lake michigan stratus over west-central lower mi will
begin to expand eastward with time overnight. This favors retention
of a more pessimistic outlook by the early morning hours, with
increasing likelihood for MVFR stratus to emerge. Once in place,
stratus expected to hold firm well into Tuesday. Modest southwest
winds tonight into Tuesday morning, shifting to westerly with a
frontal passage during the afternoon.

For dtw... Back edge of the stratus will lift into metro by 01z. This
will leave a window for possible clear skies early tonight. However,
some indication per satellite trends that stratus now over northeast
indiana will begin to lift northeast. Low confidence forecast in
terms of cig trends during the first half of the night.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceilings below 5000 ft through 06z, medium thereafter.

Prev discussion
Issued at 324 pm est Mon dec 10 2018
discussion...

near term rest of today through tonight
as of 320 pm est... Relatively stagnant synoptic pattern in place
across the region this afternoon with broad surface high pressure
across the central CONUS with split flow aloft. Further north, weak
developing low pressure will translate southeast across lake
superior and into georgian bay tonight. Southeast michigan will be
caught in between these systems the rest of today and through
tonight within modest low-level west southwesterly flow. Plentiful
boundary layer moisture trapped beneath a sharp inversion located
around 2 kft has resulted in overcast stratus for much of the day so
far, which has helped to limit temperatures to the upper 20s. With
increasingly light southwest flow at the surface heading into the
evening hours, the stratus deck will attempt to erode from west to
east and areas that see a few peaks of Sun the next few hours will
be able to see temperatures bump up into the lower 30s.

A little directional shear at the top of the inversion layer should
help clouds further erode briefly for a time during the evening
hours, but still expecting partly sunny conditions at best. Dry
weather will continue through tonight with nocturnal cooling likely
allowing for the stratus deck to fill back in from north to south as
the night progresses. Low temperatures will settle in the 20s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
generally quiet weather will prevail on Tuesday as the weak surface
low departing to the east ushers in a cold frontal passage that will
help to keep high temperatures at bay in the low to mid 30s.

Scattered flurries will be possible from the late morning and
through the afternoon hours, especially north of m-59 and east of i-
75, with weak convergence along the front low-level thermal gradient
and the passage of a northern stream trough axis associated with the
departing surface low. Despite a clearing trend in cloud cover
Tuesday night, moderating low-level temps in increasingly southerly
flow will keep low temperatures from falling below the lower 20s for
most areas.

Highly amplified shortwave ridging will crest over the region
Wednesday morning before giving way to compact northern stream
energy that will rotate across lower michigan late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The amplified ridging will allow 850 hpa temps to
warm above freezing and high temperatures to reach into the
mid upper 30s despite increasing cloud cover from west to east
throughout the course of the day. Thermodynamic profile will be
cooling with likely rain mixed with snow at the onset Wednesday
evening transitioning to snow Wednesday night. Overall moisture
quality will be poor, with the end result being the potential for
light accumulating snow of under an inch. Lows Wednesday night will
range from the upper 20s to around 30.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
mid to upper level ridging will follow Wednesday night's wave and
lead to quiet conditions Thursday. Warm advection from the south and
west will allow for moderation in temperatures through the end of
the week, with highs in the mid to upper 30s Thursday and reaching
the lower 40s for Friday and Saturday. A chance for light
precipitation moves in late Thursday night into Friday as a trough
approaches aloft and a jet streak develops over southern
ontario quebec. Some light snow will be possible overnight with a
transition to light rain as temps rise during the daytime.

Still plenty of uncertainty in the late Friday to Sunday time frame
with model solutions continuing to diverge on how to handle the
cutoff low forecast to develop over the southern conus. The euro
remains adamant in keeping the surface reflection south and east of
our area as it lifts into the mid-atlantic region by Sunday, while
the GFS and canadian models continue to suggest a track farther west
through the eastern great lakes, leading to better precip chances
for our area Saturday and Sunday. For now, have kept inherited
chance pops through the weekend until more forecast clarity can be
realized. Expectation remains for mild air to keep any weekend
precipitation primarily as rain with some snowflakes possibly mixing
in at night. A cold front will push through Monday and bring
temperatures back to near normal values for the early part of next
week.

Marine...

southwest flow will strengthen late today and into tonight as weak
low pressure tracks southeast from lake superior into georgian bay.

Gusts around 25 knots will be possible across saginaw bay and the
central lake huron open waters. The southwest flow will lead to a
period of elevated waves that will be hazardous for small craft
tonight into Tuesday morning for outer saginaw bay and the northern
thumb nearshore waters. A weak cold front will cross the region from
north to south Tuesday with broad surface high pressure ridging and
light to moderate west northwest flow generally under 20 knots.

Winds will switch to southeasterly Wednesday ahead of an approaching
midlevel disturbance and increase to 20-25 knots.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for lhz421-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Irl tf
marine... ... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi52 min S 14 G 15 30°F 1018.3 hPa (-1.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi46 min 68°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 63 mi72 min SSW 12 G 18 31°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi57 minSSW 810.00 miFair30°F24°F80%1019.6 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi59 minSSW 109.00 miFair31°F24°F76%1020.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi57 minSSW 410.00 miFair31°F25°F78%1019 hPa

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW5NW6NW6W4W6NW3NW3W5W3W5W4CalmSW4S5S7SW9S8S7SW7S8S8S7S5
1 day agoS6SW4SW5SW5S6SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW6SW5SW7SW6SW6SW10SW12
G16
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SW10SW6SW3SW4Calm
2 days agoW8W11W13
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W9W7W8W8W7W8W8W8W7W9W8W7SW9W7SW9W7SW4SW3S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.