Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glasgow, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday February 21, 2019 1:55 PM PST (21:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 830 Am Pst Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A mix of fresh swell, northerly wind waves and longer period northwest swell are combining to create very steep seas for most of the area this morning. Winds and seas are subsiding, and seas will become steep later this morning. Seas will continue to subside, and will no longer be steep after tonight. High pressure will build over the waters today, then weaken Friday. A weak front will move into the area Friday night into Saturday, then stall over the area before finally moving onshore Sunday night into Monday. Northwest swell will build Saturday and subside Saturday night, and seas may become steep north of cape blanco Saturday afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glasgow, OR
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location: 43.43, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 211828
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1028 am pst Thu feb 21 2019

Updated aviation discussion
Discussion The latest observations show light snow over portions
of the eastside, including lakeview. Elsewhere no precipitation
is being reported. Low clouds and fog continue in the rogue
valley. Guidance suggest this should burn off by early this
afternoon. Made some adjustments to the forecast for today. Mainly
to remove pops west of the cascades this morning and trim back on
the coverage of pops east of the cascades this afternoon.

We'll catch a break in the weather today into Friday afternoon with
dry conditions expected. Another cold night is expected, especially
if we clear out enough for most locations, including the coast. So
we may end up issuing another frost advisory for the coast. Watch
for updates on this.

Our next focus of attention will be later Friday night into Saturday
morning. A front will move south into the area and could bring some
snow along the cascades and maybe the passes between grants pass and
canyonville. Although it looks like passes further north may have a
better chance for snow towards daybreak Saturday. This will be
looked at in more detail. -petrucelli

Aviation For the 21 18z tafs... West of the cascades, a mix of
MVFR and ifr conditions are being observed in most valleys. Latest
hourly model data suggest that these conditions improve toVFR by
early afternoon. Conditions will degrade again to ifr early Friday
morning in most west side valleys under clear skies and continued
low level moisture. Confidence is low for the coastal areas tonight,
but we thinkVFR conditions will prevail due to a drier air mass in
place. East of the cascades, mountains obscuration and areas of MVFR
conditions are being observed this morning. Some improvement is
expected this afternoon, but low clouds are again possible tonight,
especially on northeast-facing terrain due to continued northeast
winds. Keene

Marine Updated 800 am pst Thursday 21 february 2019... A mix of
fresh swell, northerly wind waves and longer period northwest swell
are combining to create very steep seas for most of the area this
morning. Winds and seas are subsiding and will become steep by this
afternoon. Seas will continue to subside and will no longer be steep
after tonight. High pressure will build over the waters today, then
weaken Friday. A weak front will move into the area Friday night
into Saturday, then stall over the area before finally moving
onshore Sunday night into Monday. Northwest swell will build
Saturday and subside Saturday night, and seas may become steep north
of CAPE blanco Saturday afternoon and evening. Confidence in the
forecast diminishes from Sunday night onward due to uncertainty on
the timing and strength of a low pressure system that will move into
the area Sunday night.

Prev discussion issued 259 am pst Thu feb 21 2019
discussion... Current observations are showing showers across
portions of southern siskiyou county, especially near mt. Shasta
city where several inches of snow have fallen already from the
showers earlier tonight. Most of the showers in southern oregon,
however, have already diminished. That being said, temperatures
are quickly becoming cold. Thus, any wet, untreated roads and
sidewalks are already beginning to become icy. This trend will
continue as temperatures decrease through the morning hours. This
will give the distinct possibility for slippery conditions in the
morning commute. Allow extra time to reach your destination today,
and be sure to check road conditions before you leave.

Otherwise, the temperatures at the coast this morning are
remaining just above freezing. The overcast skies over the coast
have largely stopped me from issuing a no lead time freeze
warning for the coast, but isolated places just inland of the
immediate coast may dip below freezing for a couple of hours this
morning. A frost advisory remains in effect for the coast. Please
see the npwmfr for more details.

Today will be rather benign as our short break begins. Clearing
skies will be the norm, and these clearing skies will allow
another night of frigid temperatures, especially for areas east of
the cascades and in modoc county, california. West of the cascades
and for the coast, temperatures will still be below normal.

Guidance is split over whether or not the coast will reach
freezing temperatures tomorrow night, but am confident on another
frosty night. Will allow the next shift to evaluate the next model
runs to determine which headline (if any) to issue.

Overall, this break will be short lived as things become active
once again this weekend into next week. The models have really
started transitioning into an interesting scenario with another
upper level low and attached cold front approaching the pacific
northwest from alaska and british columbia beginning Friday
afternoon. This front is expected to stall somewhere near the lane
and douglas county border, and will provide another chance for
low pass snowfall for many of the cascade foothills and near the
umpqua divide (including portions of interstate 5 from sexton
summit through canyon creek pass. Snow levels on Friday night are
expected to be around 1500 to 2000 feet west of the cascades, and
could briefly lower to the valley floors--especially if the front
stalls farther south (near the umpqua divide). This could provide
chances for rain snow showers across southern oregon on Saturday,
but impacts are not expected to be widespread.

Then on Sunday, moisture from an atmospheric river comes into
oregon. Models are in disagreement on the location pf this
atmospheric river with the GFS bringing the bulk of the
precipitation north to portland, and the ECMWF and the canadian
model have brought the bullseye of precipitation to brookings,
crescent city, and port orford. This leads to a difficult
forecast, but generally the idea is that snow levels will rise,
especially for areas west of the cascades. If the ECMWF verifies,
we could see 3 to 5 inches of rain across portions of curry
county. More important would be the snow impacts: we may only see
a few inches of or less of snow below 4000 feet, but 20 to 30
inches in the mountains above 5500 feet. Confidence in this
forecast is low, since this trend began only yesterday, and models
continue to disagree on the location of the atmospheric river. But
have continued to blend the previous forecast with the ECMWF and
canadian models as they seemed most consistent at this time.

Please note, this forecast contains significant impacts to
southern oregon and northern california. Any changes will alter
the impacts we're expecting at this point. Please stay tuned to
the forecast.

Beyond then, models continue in their disparity with showers
occurring across southern oregon and northern california. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Frost advisory until 9 am pst this morning for orz021-022.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas
until 10 am pst this morning for pzz356. Small craft
advisory until 4 am pst Friday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 10 am pst this morning for pzz350-
356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 8 mi80 min N 8.9 G 12 51°F1019.5 hPa
SNTO3 12 mi86 min NNW 4.1 44°F 1020 hPa36°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 29 mi56 min 51°F10 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR2 mi60 minNNW 1110.00 miFair46°F37°F73%1019.4 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
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Thu -- 01:26 AM PST     7.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM PST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:38 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:16 PM PST     8.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM PST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.97.97.86.85.23.41.91.11.42.54.26.17.68.48.2752.80.8-0.5-0.80.11.83.9

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:22 AM PST     8.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM PST     1.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:38 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:08 PM PST     8.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM PST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.187.86.85.13.31.91.31.72.94.66.588.68.26.94.92.70.8-0.4-0.50.42.14.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.