Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wallingford, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:33PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:54 PM EST (20:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 10:10AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wallingford, VT
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location: 43.43, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 232040
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
340 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
The weather will become unsettled across the north country tonight
through Monday as a low pressure system moving through the great
lakes will bring a wintry mix to the area tonight into Sunday
morning before a changeover to all rain Sunday afternoon, and back
to snow Sunday night. Strong and gusty winds ranging from 25 to 50
mph are also expected across portions of the area. Colder air
returns to the region next week with highs in the teens and single
digit lows through Wednesday night.

Near term through Sunday
As of 339 pm est Saturday... Messy weather anticipated through the
next 24 hours as a strong low pressure system moves from the midwest
across the great lakes to our west. Increasing moisture and warm air
advection out ahead of the low will result in a wintry mix of
precipitation, moving in late tonight and continuing through Sunday
morning. Snow will transition to a mix of sleet and freezing rain,
then eventually changing over to just plain rain by early afternoon
from the green mountains westward. East of the greens, the colder
air will be tougher to scour out, so those areas will continue to
see pockets of freezing rain through the afternoon. Overall qpf
amounts will be fairly light, so snow sleet will mainly be an inch
or less, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice. This will be enough
to cause slick roads and hazardous travel, so have continued with
the winter weather advisory for the entire area for tonight through
Monday.

The other concern for tomorrow will be gusty southeast winds that
will develop during the morning hours in response to the
strengthening low drawing near. Those favored downslope regions
along the western slopes of the greens and adirondacks could see
some localized gusts around 50 mph, peaking during the mid to late
morning hours. These wind gusts will be brief and localized,
especially since mixing will not be optimal during the expected
peak, so while some branches or trees may come down, have opted not
to issue any headlines during this time, instead focusing on the
more widespread event for Sunday night and Monday (see short term
discussion below).

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 339 pm est Saturday... The main concern for this time frame will
be widespread strong winds across the region. This will be in
response to the aforementioned low pressure system lifting up to our
northwest, deepening to an impressive 970mb as it does so. Winds
will turn to the west southwest Sunday evening after a cold frontal
passage, and this cold air advection will make for optimal mixing
and steep low level lapse rates. With a 60+ kt 850mb jet swinging
through, anticipate widespread gusts of 50+ mph. The saint lawrence
valley will see some channeling due to the favorable southwest
direction, along with downsloping on the backside of the northern
adirondacks. These areas will likely see gusts of 60 mph or more,
peaking late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Have therefore
issued a high wind warning for these areas for Sunday evening into
Monday morning. For areas from the champlain valley eastward, west
winds will intensify a bit later than over northern ny, and not be
quite as strong owing to the distance from the low center core of
the jet. Still anticipate gusts up to 55 mph however, especially
from mid to late Monday morning. Accordingly, a wind advisory has
been issued for these areas from Sunday evening through Monday.

The cold front and west winds will also serve to switch
precipitation from rain back to snow through Sunday evening, and
allow it to become more focused in the mountains. This persistent
wrap around will likely bring a few inches of snow to the northern
greens and adirondacks Sunday night and Monday, before the showers
wind down Monday night. Temperatures will likely fall through the
day Monday, or at best hold steady, with highs in the mid to upper
20s. Colder air begins to settle over the region in earnest Monday
night; lows will be in the single digits above zero in the wider
valleys while the higher elevations will see temperatures drop below
zero.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 339 pm est Saturday... Large surface high will be established
with northwesterly flow keeping temperatures below average Tuesday
and Wednesday with dry weather. The upper ridge will be positioned
overhead by late Wednesday with flow briefly becoming southwesterly.

The brief, southwest flow comes from a weak clipper system
interacting with a weak surface trough along the thermal gradient
across southern new england. Greater than usual model spread is
evident among the GEFS with some uncertainty as to how far north
precipitation extends to the north of the clipper system. It appears
the system will be piece- meal and relatively unorganized with the
less aggressive fv3 approach more likely. Will maintain the previous
forecast philosophy and keep 20-30% chance of snow late Wednesday
favoring the southern adirondacks and southern vt. The clipper is
already gone by Thursday morning with high pressure returning. A
gradual warming trend will take place bringing us closer to seasonal
norms. True to the pattern of the last month, a few dry days will be
followed by another system coming in Saturday.

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
Through 18z Sunday... Mid and high level clouds will prevail this
afternoon through the first half tonight withVFR conditions
expected through 08-10z. Widespread MVFR will develop as a warm
front approaches from the southwest increasing the threat for
mixed precipitation between 09-12z. After 14z, most locations
will have changed over to plain rain, however cold air could
linger longer at kmss, kmpv and other nek terminals (as well as
kvsf) will the threat for -fzra persisting until 17-18z. Winds
will generally be under 10 knots through 06z but will increase
from the southeast at most locations with gusts in the 18 to 24
knot range. Kmss will remain out of the northeast through the
taf period generally around 10 knots. Elsewhere, wind gusts will
increase to 28-35 knots towards 14z, especially at krut which
could see wind gusts approaching 40 knots. Turbulence will be a
concern at all TAF sites and especially near terrain as the
850mb low level jet begins to strengthen after 12z with the
core of the jet between 65-70 knots. Low level wind shear will
be a concern at kslk and kmss due to the strength and also
direction of the jet.

Outlook...

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds
with gusts to 45 kt. Chance shsn, chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Slight
chance shsn.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance sn.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance sn.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
Sunday for vtz001-002-005-009-011-016>019.

Wind advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 7 pm est Monday for
vtz001>012-016>019.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to noon est Sunday for
vtz003-004-006>008-010-012.

Ny... High wind warning from 4 pm Sunday to 1 pm est Monday for
nyz026-027-029>031-034-087.

Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
Sunday for nyz026>031-034-035-087.

Wind advisory from 7 pm Sunday to 7 pm est Monday for nyz028-
035.

Synopsis... Hastings
near term... Hastings
short term... Hastings
long term... Haynes
aviation... Larocca


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT8 mi58 minWNW 310.00 miFair35°F19°F52%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from RUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6NW5NW3N3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE6E7SE8E8E9E8SE7E5CalmCalmCalm6CalmNW3
1 day agoW13
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NW7N5NW9NW8NW5NW6NW8NW6NW7N6N4N6NW7
2 days agoCalmCalmSE8SE16SE12SE11
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E16SE12SE8SE5E8CalmCalmW6W6W7W8W13
G22

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 02:11 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     5.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:36 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:12 PM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.2-0.4-01.334.25.15.453.92.81.80.90.1-012.63.94.75.24.942.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     5.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:26 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.1-0.40.11.63.24.45.25.44.93.72.61.70.800.11.22.844.85.24.83.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.