Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wells, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:45PM Sunday September 24, 2017 10:27 PM EDT (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wells, VT
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location: 43.43, -73.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 242346
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
746 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
Unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to bring fair
weather and warm, record high temperatures to the region through
Wednesday. By later Wednesday into Wednesday night the chances
of showers increase as a cold front crosses the area. Behind
this front temperatures will cool back toward more typical early
autumn values from Thursday onward into next weekend.

Near term through Monday night
As of 727 pm edt Sunday... A very warm and muggy evening
continues across the north county with temps in the 70s to lower
80s and dewpoints mid 60s to lower 70s. Current dewpoint at kmss
is 73f and btv is 70f... As low level moisture is pooling with
calm conditions associated with large dome of high pres at all
levels. Have bumped sfc dewpoints up 2 to 4 degrees across the
region... Based on obs along with hourly surface temps to match
current values. Otherwise... Did tweak our overnight low temps
here up several degrees due to the urban heat island effect.

Thinking lows range from near 60f mountain valleys to around 70f
locally here in the cpv. Some patchy fog is possible in deeper
valleys... Similar to last night. All covered well.

Previous discussion below:
high temperature records already falling in earnest as of 200
pm as deep layer, anomalously strong high pressure continues to
build across the northeast. This high will remain anchored in
place over the next 48 hours with more rinse and repeat weather
and record high temperatures on Monday in the 80s to near 90.

See climate section at bottom for specific records over the next
few days. Again, I leaned close to a multi-model bias-
corrected blend for MAX min temperatures given little change in
airmass. This supports a somewhat wider than normal diurnal
range with typical late night early morning mist fog in favored
locales morning. Some suggestions that even the st. Lawrence
valley may get in on the fog tonight per most recent NAM 3km
output.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
As of 323 pm edt Sunday... The previous forecast remains on
track for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models are in fairly good
agreement. The upper level ridge will remain over the region.

With no change in airmass, will hold onto MAX temps in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees. This also pushes heat index
values once again into the 90-94 degree range.

While these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 f), they are
not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year.

Based on the forecast and current records, its expected that
records will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged
exposure outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to
heat related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and
take frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will
be the third consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes
during the afternoon. With upper 80's to low 90's temps, the
overnight lows wont fall that much. Expect lows each night in
the upper 50s to low 60s which is 15-20 degrees above normal
for this time of year.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 323 pm edt Sunday... Model solutions begin to diverge with
the handling of timing, and to some extent placement, of the
mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front. Still looks like
the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into
Wednesday as a low pressure system begins to finally track
towards the north country from the great lakes. With the flow
aloft not turning zonal until mid day Wednesday anticipate the
frontal system moving through slower than the models suggest.

I've removed pops Wednesday morning. Will still carry chance
pops Wednesday afternoon but have removed mention of thunder.

Any afternoon activity is expected to be pre-frontal and on the
weaker side with the cold front not expected to move through
until Wednesday night.

A trailing shortwave will move across the region the end of the
week. For now have gone with slight-low chance pops Friday into
Saturday due to timing uncertainties. The cold front will usher
in much cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the end of
the work week through the weekend.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Through 00z Tuesday...VFR skc through the period under light
winds less than 10 kts. Only exception will be areas of late
night early morning ifr lifr fg at kmpv and kslk terminals in
the 06-13z time frame. Some patchy brief MVFR br also possible
at the kmss terminal during this time frame, but confidence not
as high given mixed mesoscale signals in the hi- resolution
models.

Outlook...

Monday night:VFR. Patchy fg.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Climate
Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sunday sep 24
to Wednesday sep 27
day burlington massena montpelier
9 24 84 1961 87 2010 83 1961
9 25 85 1891 90 2007 85 2007
9 26 84 1934 82 1970 83 2007
9 27 83 1920 82 2003 80 2007
for burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching
specific temperature thresholds
90f or higher: 9 16 1939
88f or higher: 9 22 1965
87f or higher: 9 23 1895
86f or higher: 9 23 1895 (was 87f that day)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg taber
short term... Nrr
long term... Nrr
aviation... Jmg slw
climate... Btv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT15 mi32 minESE 610.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1020.3 hPa
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY23 mi35 minN 00.50 miFog67°F66°F97%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from RUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE4SE8S3SE5SE5SE5SE6SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmNE3N5N8NW6NW4NW5CalmSE5SE4SE6SE6
1 day agoSE5E4SE4SE4SE7SE4S5SE7S4CalmS4N3CalmCalmNW6NW5CalmN4NW4N4SE5SE8SE7SE5
2 days agoCalmSE7SE8E3SE63CalmSE5SE7SE6CalmS3NW4NW3W643NW6NW5NW5N5NW3CalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:35 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:06 PM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.40.5-00.51.833.94.44.43.82.81.91.30.70.10.21.42.944.85.14.83.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:55 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:27 AM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:11 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.10.2-0.20.51.833.84.34.23.52.51.71.10.4-0.10.21.52.944.754.53.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.