Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 3:54 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KBTV 041138 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains over the region today and will bring one more day of dry and mild weather. Widespread rainfall returns for Sunday, and some isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible, particularly over northern New York. A period of warmer and sunnier conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more unsettled weather returning by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 647 AM EDT Saturday... A few rain showers are currently over the North Country but they should fall apart in the next couple hours. Had to increase PoPs slightly as they made it a little farther east than expected. Thick cloud cover has enveloped the region overnight but it should at least partially break during the day. Overall, the forecast is in relatively good shape so there were only a few edits made. Previous discussion follows...

Previous Discussion...An occluded front is currently decaying as it is moving across the North Country due to a stubborn ridge of high pressure over the region. The front has been able to bring a couple showers to northern New York, but those should mostly fall apart before they reach Vermont. Light southeasterly flow is helping to advect a cooler maritime airmass into areas east of the Greens and it is creating a relatively sharp temperature gradient tonight.
Lows east of the greens will be in the 40s but the in the Champlain and St. lawrence Valleys, temperatures will only fall into the mid to upper 50s. Any showers over northern New York should fall apart by daybreak so Saturday will be a mostly dry day. Some high clouds will linger into the day but they should be thin enough to allow a decent amount of sunshine, particularly over Vermont. Temperatures will climb into the 60s to around 70, very similar to yesterday.
Another front slowly moves across the region Saturday night into Sunday, and with some connection to gulf moisture, it will bring more meaningful precipitation. Most areas should see up to around a half inch of rain so there are no flooding concerns. Some elevated instability should develop during the day on Sunday, particularly over northern New York, so some thunderstorms and heavier convective showers are possible. However, there is no severe threat. A southerly low-level jet will pass over the region on Sunday and will cause some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust up to 30 kts over Lake Champlain. However, winds will be limited by the water temperatures being colder than the air and by the strongest winds occurring when the precipitation is falling. These two factors will limit the ability for the stronger winds to mix down.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread rain showers will be ongoing Sunday night as a frontal boundary moves across the region. Although it won't be all that much colder behind the front, the incoming airmass will be much drier, so expect showers will rapidly come to an end by early Monday morning. Another weak surface trough will move through Monday afternoon, which may allow a few additional showers to develop, but any activity would be isolated and very light in nature given the dry air that will be in place. Ridging spreads into the area Monday night, keeping conditions dry. Monday's highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest conditions occurring where sun can break through the clouds. Lows both Sunday night and Monday night will mostly be in the 40s, though Sunday will be more in the mid 40s to around 50F, while Monday night will be a little cooler.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as we remain under the influence of ridging, but then precipitation chances will increase by Wednesday and continue through the remainder of the week as several waves move through the nearly zonal flow aloft, and eventually around a developing upper trough centered to our north.
Exact timing and placement of these waves and associated precipitation is difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, but expect every day through the latter half of the week to have at some chance of showers. Instability doesn't look all that impressive, though a few rumbles of thunder may be possible Wednesday over western sections of northern NY, and perhaps far southern VT on Thursday.
Tuesday will be the warmest day under lots of sunshine; highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Things should cool down slightly thereafter, though exactly how much will depend on exact timing and placement of shower activity and cloud cover.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions should persist through the entire TAF period though moist southeast flow could cause ceilings at MPV to lower to MVFR late tonight. A few light showers are possible early this morning at at any of the terminals but they will not be heavy enough to cause any visibility concerns. Steadier rain will arrive in northern New York late tonight. Wind shear is currently close to LLWS criteria at many of the terminals but the wind shear will decrease this morning and stay lower for the rest of the day.
Winds will stay relatively consistent throughout the TAF period.
They will generally be from the southeast between 5-15 KTs, though BTV may gust a little higher.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:12 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 PM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,