Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:34 AM   Moonset 2:35 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 030818 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 418 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday.
Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry conditions return to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...The region is currently between a shortwave trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry, even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the region.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...PWATs rise to 2 standard deviations above normal on Sunday as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origin looks to overspread the region. Forecast soundings show a lack of surface- based instability, so showers with brief locally heavy downpours look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due to elevated instability, no organized thunderstorms are anticipated.
It will be quite breezy as well, with persistent southeast winds gusting 30-35 mph at times. Rainfall chances wise, it does look like areas east of the Adirondacks should stay dry for most of Saturday.
This is because while a shortwave trough moves eastward from the Great Lakes, it encounters a stout omega block, and therefore the best forcing is diverted north of our region on Saturday. While there should be plenty of cloud cover, have utilized the 75th percentile of model guidance for Champlain Valley and point east.
Highs should top out right around 70, or a few degrees above climatological norm for early May across the Champlain Valley.
Expect 60s elsewhere, except 50s in the high terrain. Heading into Sunday, the omega block finally moves east, allowing the shortwave trough to approach closer to our CWA albeit in a deamplified state.
This means that PoPs increase to the likely category with scattered to perhaps numerous showers on Sunday. While there would likely be widespread wetting rainfall, QPF amounts are quite manageable in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area rivers going into action stage.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...The overall weather pattern heading into the first full week of May can be described as unsettled with no real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures and leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper level pattern features a positively tilted omega block sandwiched between an anomalously deep trough across the Rockies/northern Great Plains and another trough over eastern Quebec/Newfoundland. H5 height anomalies favor a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, as positive H5 height anomalies give way to near normal values. Depending on the timing of the associated surface cold front, ingredients may exist for a few stronger storms. But with the potential storms being 5 days away, have largely stuck to a blend of guidance for this time frame.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12Z Friday...Ceilings have been gradually lowering this evening and should continue to do so overnight. Confidence is relatively high that ceilings will reach IFR at BTV while confidence is lower whether ceilings will reach IFR at PBG and MPV. EFK and SLK should hold onto their low clouds and fog overnight before it scours out after daybreak. However, the IFR cloud deck at SLK could briefly scatter out a couple times overnight. The IFR ceilings at RUT are expected to remain the entire night but there is lower confidence there. Ceilings will rise quickly after daybreak and all terminals should be VFR by late morning. There should only be high clouds during the day today but the clouds will begin to lower and thicken tonight, though they should remain VFR for the first part of the night. Winds are relatively light and are generally northerly but they should transition to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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