Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 6:40 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 211918 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 318 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue late this afternoon into early this evening, generally dissipating before midnight. A few storms may be strong to severe through this evening, with localized strong winds and small hail the primary threats. A warm overnight period is expected, followed by hot and moderately humid conditions across the North Country on Wednesday. High temperatures may reach 90 degrees in a few valley locations. A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday night into Thursday in association with a cold front approaching from the eastern Great Lakes region. Somewhat cooler and drier conditions return on Friday into the holiday weekend, but temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for late May.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 316 PM EDT Tuesday...We continue to monitor ongoing strong thunderstorms this afternoon, which have developed in advance of a shortwave trough pushing eastward from far sern Ontario and the eastern portion of Lake Ontario. The 18Z RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis indicates that SBCAPE values have reached 1500-2000 J/kg across portions of the Adirondacks esewd into s-central VT, along with nearly non-existent CINH. SFC-6km bulk shear of 25-30kts is sufficient for strong multicellular storms and possible storm clusters as outflow interactions occur with ongoing activity through this evening. A few severe storms are possible, with localized damaging winds the primary threat. Given convective mode and WBZ heights of 9-10KFT, anticipate mainly sub-severe hail, but certainly some small hail will be possible with any stronger cores through 00Z. Thereafter, diminishing instability should allow overall intensity and extent of convection to wane later this evening.
Upstream shortwave and associated forcing appears to translate close to the intl border region overnight, so could see some continued showers and a few rumbles of thunder into the overnight hours across the far north. Otherwise, relatively mild overnight with lows mainly in the lower 60s, except mid-upr 50s across the Adirondacks and far nern VT. May see some patchy fog during the pre-dawn hours, mainly confined to the deeper valleys of eastern VT given 20-25kt winds in the 1-2kft AGL layer causing some turbulent mixing in most locations overnight.

On Wednesday, a 700mb shortwave ridge builds across the North Country with a building 850mb thermal ridge across Northern New England. Lesser precipitation chances and better insolational heating should allow temperatures to reach 90F at BTV and a few other locations within the Champlain Valley and upper CT River Valley. Generally mid-upper 80s elsewhere. Heat index valleys reach 91-92F during the afternoon with mid-60s dewpoints. Just below heat advisory criteria, but we will continue to message the hot and moderately humid conditions (and warmest day of the year thus far).
May see an isold tstm Wednesday afternoon, but better height falls and slightly cyclonic 700-500mb flow Wednesday night suggest better coverage of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms developing during Wednesday night. PoPs generally 30-50% Wednesday night. Lows should be in the low-mid 60s Wednesday night as S-SW winds 5-9 mph persist thru much of the night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday...A surface cold front comes through on Thursday with height falls and temperatures aloft falling during the day from west to east. Dew points should fall rather quickly into the 50s by the morning hours across northern NY, and then in the afternoon across Vermont. As such, the best chance for decent shear to overlap with surface-based instability is across Central and Southern Vermont on Thursday afternoon. This is where the forecast indicates better chances for thunderstorms. Thinking is still that while a few stronger storms are possible, they should stay mainly below severe criteria.

Temperatures will see highs in the low 70s to mid 80s across Vermont, with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s across northern NY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday...A return to seasonable conditions is expected after the passage of the cold front on Thursday. While expecting a mostly dry holiday weekend, a few showers and possible thunderstorm, especially on Saturday afternoon, cannot be ruled out.
Overall the region should expect highs over the weekend in the upper 60s to mid 70s with dew points in the 40s and 50s, a welcome change from the muggy conditions from earlier this week. Looking into next week, weather looks unsettled as a few systems move into the region Monday through the mid week.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Isold to scattered thunderstorm activity may impact TAF locations 19-23Z across VT and northern NY this afternoon/early eve. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible, along with dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.
T-storm activity dissipates later this evening with mainly scattered midlevel (VFR) cloudiness. May see BR/FG formation east of the Green Mtns, especially in the CT River Valley, during the pre- dawn hours on Wednesday. During Wednesday morning, VFR conditions expected with just FEW-SCT200-250. Winds generally light S-SW across the region this afternoon away from any thunderstorm activity.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921

May 23: KPBG: 65/1964

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:13 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:23 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:35 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Burlington, VT,