Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Altmar, NY

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Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:05PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:38 AM EDT (04:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 11:27PM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1031 Pm Edt Fri Aug 17 2018
Overnight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 76 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201808180900;;232487 FZUS51 KBUF 180238 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-180900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altmar, NY
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location: 43.43, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180305
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1105 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass just to our north and slowly push a cold
front across the region late tonight into Saturday. This will result
more showers and thunderstorms which will taper off early Saturday.

Then high pressure will build into the region late Saturday and
bring a return to fair weather and more comfortable levels of
humidity for the remainder through Monday.

Near term through Saturday
A shortwave trough will track eastward across michigan tonight while
at the surface, low pressure is centered over the northern shore of
lake ontario. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the
eastern great lakes tonight.

A moist airmass continues across the eastern great lakes with dew
points around 70 degrees this evening. Most of the afternoon early
evening convection has moved east of the forecast area however,
instability is still present and with make it condusive for
showers and thunderstorms tonight. A disorganized line of
showers and thunderstorms extends along a cold front from
eastern lake ontario to the northern shore of lake erie. This
boundary will slowly sag southward as low pressure tracks
eastward into northern ny by Saturday morning. Steadier showers
and thunderstorms will enter the lake plains late tonight and
may bring significant rainfall to the niagara frontier with
enhanced surface convergence when the southwesterly flow up lake
erie encounters the northerly component of the surface front.

Showers and thunderstorms will also continue to form south of
lake erie and across the western southern tier as the shortwave
trough approaches the region.

Showers and thunderstorms with this front should slowly drop
from north to south across the area tonight, gradually weakening
late as it becomes more stable. Given the moist environment,
locally heavy rainfall is still possible ahead of the front
tonight. Lows tonight will generally be in the 60s.

Model consensus is slightly slower with the front, and associated
showers lingering across the southern tier into Saturday morning.

Then expect a slow clearing trend closer to the lakes Saturday
afternoon, with lingering cloud cover closer to the departing front.

The boundary will usher in cooler and drier conditions. Expect highs
on Saturday to average in the mid to upper 70s with more comfortable
humidity levels.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
In the wake of Saturday's cold front wave of low pressure... Broad
but weak surface-based ridging extending from northern quebec to
the central great lakes will build southeastward into our region
Saturday night. Subsidence and drier air associated with the high
should provide our region with a dry night along with mainly clear
to partly cloudy skies... With the greatest amount of lingering cloud
cover found along our southeastern periphery... Which will lie closer
to the departing surface wave front. The incoming cooler drier airmass
attendant to the high will also allow for more comfortable overnight
lows that will range from the upper 50s across the higher terrain
to the lower 60s across the lake plains... Along with correspondingly
lower humidity levels.

On Sunday the axis of the surface ridge will settle directly across
our region... While weak broad troughing will be in place aloft.

While the combination of lingering low level moisture and the
development of some weak diurnally-driven instability could lead
to the development of an isolated shower thunderstorm or two across
portions of the southern finger lakes and south-central new york...

our region should remain under the influence of relatively drier
air and therefore dry... With just a diurnal cumulus field developing
inland from the lakes. As for high temperatures... These will be close
to normal and will range from the mid upper 70s across the higher
terrain to around 80 across the lake plains... While humidity will be
at moderate levels (i.E., dewpoints of around 60).

Sunday night and Monday the axis of the surface ridge will remain
draped firmly across our region... While the weak troughing aloft
will give way to gradually rebounding heights out ahead of the next
mid-level trough... Which will be in the process of pushing across the
nation's midsection. This should promote continued quiet and dry
weather... With skies ranging from mainly clear to partly cloudy
Sunday night... Then averaging out partly to mostly sunny on Monday.

Meanwhile temperatures will average out a bit above seasonal normals...

with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday night followed by highs
mostly in the lower 80s on Monday. It will also turn a little more
humid... With surface dewpoints eventually creeping up into the lower
to mid 60s by Monday afternoon.

Long term Monday night through Friday
The most active weather in the longer term portion of the forecast
will come within the first 36 hours of this period... When a broad
upper level trough digging southeastward across the great lakes will
capture and phase with a second mid upper level trough over the mid-
mississippi valley... With the resultant deepening longwave trough
axis sliding eastward across the great lakes and ohio valley. At the
surface... Increasing DCVA height falls on the eastern flank of the
newly phased longwave trough will spur the continued development
strengthening of low pressure that will track from missouri to the
central great lakes by Tuesday afternoon... Then on into into southern
quebec Tuesday night. As it does so... This system will push its
attendant warm front across our region between late Monday night
and Tuesday morning... Quickly followed by its trailing cold front
late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The latest medium range models remain
in excellent agreement that this will become an increasingly dynamic
system as it passes by to our northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night...

with the gem gfs ECMWF all suggesting that the low will deepen to at
least below 1000 mb during this time frame... Which would most
definitely be an anomalously strong system for this time of year.

Plentiful synoptic forcing and deepening moisture (pwats increasing
to around 2 inches) attendant to this strengthening system will drive
the development of increasingly widespread precipitation through the
course of Tuesday and Tuesday evening... For which pops have again
been bumped up into the categorical range. Given what appear to be
only limited to modest levels of instability at this still somewhat-
distant vantage point... Much of the precipitation from this system
should come in the form of plain rain showers... Though some embedded
scattered thunderstorms will certainly be possible given both the
increasing dynamics and rather moisture-rich environment. Despite the
latter... At this juncture the potential for locally heavy rain flash
flooding looks to be on the marginal side and largely dependent on
whether any training of cells can occur given the increasing wind
fields that will be in place aloft... With the threat for severe storms
also appearing to be rather marginal given currently unimpressive
projections of available instability. Nonetheless... Such threats can
also not be entirely ruled out either given the strengthening and
increasingly dynamic nature of this system.

Following the passage of the trailing cold front... The arrival of
cooler and drier air will bring an end to the more widespread
precipitation Tuesday night... Though the passage of main upper
trough axis attendant cool pool core... Diurnal heating... And
residual lower level moisture may still be sufficient to pop a few
more scattered showers isolated storms inland from the lakes during
the day Wednesday. After that... High pressure and drier air will
continue to build into the region Wednesday night and Thursday and
bring about a return to completely dry weather... Which should then
last through the end of the work week as this feature slowly drifts
eastward and off the mid-atlantic coastline.

As for temperatures... These will average out close to normal through
the period... With readings briefly dipping back to slightly below
average levels for midweek following the passage of Tuesday night's
cold front. Meanwhile... Uncomfortable dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
on Tuesday will trend downward to much more comfortable levels in the
50s for Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the cold front... Before
rebounding slightly on Friday as a southerly return flow sets up on
the backside of the departing surface ridge.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Low pressure will track to the north of the area with an associated
cold front slowly dropping across the area from north to south late
tonight into Saturday morning. For the remainder of this evening,
expect isolated showers and thunderstorms with a mix ofVFR and MVFR
conditions.

Expect steadier showers with embedded thunderstorms along and just
ahead of the front tonight. This should generally result in a period
of MVFR conditions as it moves through between 04-12z.

The northerly flow behind the front will upslope and trap low
moisture with a period of ifr conditions likely late tonight and
well into Saturday morning. Drier air will gradually build in late
morning and through the afternoon with clouds lifting and scattered
toVFR.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Marine
Low pressure will pass to the north with its associated cold front
dropping across the lower great lakes tonight. This evening,
southwest winds will continue. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may produce a period of gusty winds and special marine warnings can
not be ruled out this evening.

Northerly component winds will pick up behind the front late
tonight into Saturday morning. Conditions will approach small craft
criteria along the south shores of lake ontario, but probably fall
just short.

After this, high pressure will ridge toward the waters Saturday
afternoon with diminishing winds. The ridge will expand across the
lower great lakes Sunday and Monday with negligible winds and waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel hsk
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Apffel hsk
marine... Apffel hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi38 min NNE 13 G 19 70°F 1012 hPa65°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi38 min SSE 13 G 15 74°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi38 min 73°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi44 minN 810.00 miLight Rain72°F68°F87%1011.6 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi44 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3SE33CalmS5S9
G16
33SE4S7SW9SW9SW5SW33CalmSW4SW3SW4S6W5N8
1 day agoSW5SW5W5W9W7SW4CalmSW3SW3SW5SW54W5NW4NW6W3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SE33
2 days agoSW3CalmW4W3CalmCalmCalmS3W5W6NW10W8W8W6W10W8W9--W4N4CalmS3CalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.