Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Altmar, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:56 AM EST (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:08PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201902200415;;198098 Fzus51 Kbuf 192231 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 531 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-200415- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 531 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely this evening, then scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of light snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Light rain, light snow and light freezing rain in the evening, then light rain and light freezing rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of light rain in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots. Rain showers during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altmar, NY
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location: 43.43, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200605
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
105 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A storm system will pass through the region today, with a light
wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain becoming predominately
plain rain for the region this afternoon and tonight. An area of
high pressure will then pass across the region tomorrow afternoon
through Saturday with fair weather. Another storm system, this much
stronger, will pass through the great lakes region Saturday night
through Sunday night with rain, and the potential for very strong
winds.

Near term until 6 am this morning
A weather news-worthy 200kt jetlet continues to drift to the ene
from north central ny to central or northern new england.

Overnight... The large surface high will move east while the weak
lake ontario band eventually tea kettles into the middle of the lake
as land breeze circulations develop. The remainder of the region
will see increasing high clouds from SW to NE as warm advection
begins to move into the region.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday night
Very little has changed in the short term forecast period from the
previous forecast update. Model solutions have really latched onto
the idea of maintaining the best lift and QPF down across pa as an
area of dpva transits well to our south ahead of the main system
that will be winding up to our west. This leaves us in an area of
constant warm advection without substantial lift really entering the
picture during the day on Wednesday. Some modest isentropic ascent
does start to enter from the southwest, however as that occurs,
thermal profiles start to get very questionable for snow and even
freezing precipitation along the lake erie shoreline. This is
because of both a lack of lift, as well as downsloping off the
higher terrain to the southeast on southeasterly flow.

Farther inland, glancing isentropic ascent is more likely to
generate precipitation by afternoon, however that will be light.

Profiles here too will quickly translate warmer such that no
location is likely to see more than an inch of snow before a
potential changeover. Southeasterly flow will likely keep cold air
locked in at the surface for a bit longer across the interior
southern tier and finger lakes than over the lake erie shore and
niagara frontier, so some icing potential exists in those locations.

However, even in interior areas, warm advection eventually gets
everyone above freezing before the warm air marches northward and
changes the north country over to all rain as well.

Ice accumulation will be problematic given temperatures warming so
rapidly, not to mention a changeover time in the afternoon from snow
to freezing precipitation. We are now in late february, and the sun
is strong enough to keep pavement temperatures above freezing in the
afternoon even with temperatures a bit below freezing, so the
impacts may not be very substantial even if freezing rain does
occur. While the changeover will likely be overnight in the north
country, QPF will be lighter there, so again, impacts may not be all
that extreme. That said, advisories for traces of ice may still end
up being necessary.

Gusty winds follow this system on Thursday as colder air briefly
returns to the area. This will be accompanied by high pressure and
drier conditions to round out the work week.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Potentially damaging winds anticipated during this period...

high pressure will move into new england Saturday and Saturday night
while the next system undergoes cyclogenesis across the central
plains. 12z guidance continues to highlight a deepening area of low
pressure that will cut the central great lakes Sunday. This track is
climatologically favored for western and north-central ny to see
widespread, high (damaging) winds. The low is forecast to deepen to
near 985mb as it reaches lower michigan by Sunday morning. Prior to
this, a strong low-level jet will transport mild, moist air across
the eastern great lakes. Rain will likely spread across the region
with some areas seeing a wintry mix as temperatures stay near
freezing Saturday night.

By Sunday evening, a cold front will have moved through the region.

The core of the strong low level jet will be move into western and
north-central ny. Current guidance suite shows 925mb winds on
the order of 60-70kts. An advancing cold front may mix these
winds down to the surface especially since model guidance shows
strong subsidence behind it. Widespread wind damage is a
possibility Sunday-Sunday night. We will be watching this system
which is now a mid-level shortwave trough, now off the coast of
british columbia, slide southward across the pacific northwest
and into the desert southwest by Friday.

Behind the winds, a lake response is possible with snow showers east-
southeast of lake ontario. Temperatures will be mild through Sunday
night with daytime temperatures reaching the 40's and 50's Saturday
and Sunday. Cold air advection will bring temperatures back below
normal through the first half of the work week.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
For the 06z tafsVFR flight conditions will be predominate as
surface high pressure moves across new england this early morning.

Impactful weather will be found the last 12 hours of the TAF cycle
as the center of a storm system passes by just to the west of the
region. This system will bring a wintry mix before changing to plain
rain later in the afternoon and through the remainder of the taf
cycle.

A southeast downslope wind will limit precipitation around the kbuf
airfield today, with just a vcsh qualifier in the tafs.

A LLJ 50 to 60 knots (around 40 knots at 2k feet) will begin to
increase the southeast winds this afternoon. These winds will veer
to southwest tonight. Gusts to 30 knots at the surface are possible.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered rain or snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow and wind.

Marine
Surface high pressure will slowly drift eastward and out to sea
tonight and Wednesday, while low pressure develops into the western
great lakes. The high will provide quiet conditions with winds and
waves remaining below advisory levels through tonight, before east-
southeasterlies freshen between these two systems on Wednesday. This
said, there may be just enough of a southeasterly component to the
flow to keep the highest wave action over the open waters of lake
ontario, thereby abrogating the need for small craft advisories
along the south shore of that lake.

The next chance for widespread advisory-worthy conditions still
appears to arrive on Thursday as the surface low pushes into quebec
province and brisk westerlies develop in the wake of its trailing
cold front. Strong winds - gales or event storms will be possible
Sunday from the next system.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Thursday for nyz003>005-013-014.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
this evening for nyz001-002-010-011.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 am est
Thursday for nyz012-019>021-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Hitchcock thomas zaff
short term... Fries
long term... Hsk
aviation... Thomas
marine... Jjr zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi57 min S 8 G 9.9 17°F 1035.5 hPa (+0.0)9°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi57 min SW 7 G 9.9 18°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi57 min 16°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi63 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds8°F1°F76%1036.3 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi63 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds11°F6°F81%1036.1 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW8NW6W10W8W4SW3S4SW3SW4SW5S3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoE43NE3NE3N6N8N11N8N9N11N14
G21
NW14N11N14NW9
G18
NW8W6NW4W3SW6SW3NW8N4N4
2 days agoNE5CalmNE3N4N3N3E3CalmCalmS43S3S3S3N7N6NE6NE4NE5NE4NE3E3E35

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.