Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mexico, NY
May 6, 2024 8:53 PM EDT (00:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:53 AM Moonset 5:46 PM |
LOZ044 Expires:202405062115;;725524 Fzus51 Kbuf 061403 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am edt Mon may 6 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-062115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1003 am edt Mon may 6 2024
Rest of today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1003 am edt Mon may 6 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-062115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1003 am edt Mon may 6 2024
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 062338 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 738 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry weather through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with some showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Great Lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Backedge of the cirrus shield is exiting London Ontario and will make its way into and across western New York within the next few hours. This will leave clear skies for the rest of the evening hours with temperatures falling back into the low 60s around sunset.
Tonight...high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our region. The high clouds will clear out and winds will be calm, resulting in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the low to mid 40s in most areas.
The surface high pressure ridge axis will gradually slide east into New England, but it will keep the area rain-free during the day Tuesday. Clouds will increase from the southwest during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower across the Western Southern Tier towards sunset. Otherwise, pleasant and warm with highs in the 70s inland. Cooler along the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie due to a northeasterly lake breeze.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday night, a warm front extending from stacked low pressure centered near North Dakota will move across the region from southwest to northeast. This front is likely to generate some convection upstream, with its remnants moving across our area.
Ample elevated instability to support some thunderstorms with this, especially Tuesday evening. Although precipitation will be convective, model agreement supports 70-80% PoPs for our area.
Showers will linger into Wednesday, especially east of Lake Ontario where the front will be last to exit. However, most of the day will be rain-free, especially across Western NY.
Following the warm frontal passage, temperatures will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for lower elevations south of I-90. For Wednesday night, it appears our region will be in between systems, with mainly rain-free weather. Chances for showers will increase from the west late in the night.
The stacked low will finally open into a trough aloft and begin to track slowly eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night.
With this, a surface reflection is forecast to track near the NY/PA border Thursday night. Models typically struggle with the progression of upper level systems like this, and there is some model agreement on the track and timing but fairly good agreement that there will be widespread showers as this system moves through. Chances for thunderstorms will be mainly along and south of the track of the low where there will be some instability. Meanwhile, there will be higher chances for precipitation north of the track since it will be more stratiform precipitation there. This will also bring cooler weather with below normal high temperatures on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid/upper-level troughing overhead and surface low pressure off the New England coastline at the start of Friday will slide eastward through the course of Friday and Friday night...allowing ridging at all levels to build eastward from the Upper Lakes. This will allow showers to mostly taper off from west to east through Friday night...though cyclonic/upslope flow may still keep a few of these going into later Friday night east of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes. Otherwise the cool cyclonic flow will result in decidedly below normal highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s Friday...with lows of 40-45 then following for Friday night.
On Saturday ridging at the surface and aloft will slowly drift east into eastern New York and western New England...while the next mid- level trough drops across the Upper Great Lakes. For the most part the aforementioned ridging should result in mainly dry conditions prevailing...though there could be a few lingering showers across our far eastern zones on the western fringes of the departing initial trough...as well as across far western New York later in the day as the leading edge of the next mid-level trough begins to impinge upon the area. Meanwhile some partial sunshine and modest airmass modification should allow highs to climb back into the mid 50s across the higher terrain and the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.
The next mid-level trough will then drop across the area Saturday night and Sunday while bringing a commensurate increase in shower potential...with the latter likely to peak Sunday afternoon in conjunction with daytime heating/destabilization of the lower levels. After that disagreement rapidly increases amongst the medium range guidance on how quickly this trough flattens out/departs...and with the resulting forecast uncertainty in mind will keep a general chance of showers in the forecast through Sunday night and Monday.
As for temps...these should climb back to near normal levels (highs in the mid-upper 60s and lows in the mid-upper 40s) by the end of the period.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with no restrictions across all area terminals.
Tuesday...some mid-level clouds will approach from the west lake but VFR is likely to remain in place.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers.
MARINE
Surface high pressure with negligible winds and waves through Tuesday night. Onshore winds will pick up during the afternoon hours due to lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds will briefly pick up on Lake Erie on Wednesday behind a warm front. Then low pressure passing by to the south will cause easterly winds to increase Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for low-end small craft headlines.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 738 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry weather through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with some showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Great Lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Backedge of the cirrus shield is exiting London Ontario and will make its way into and across western New York within the next few hours. This will leave clear skies for the rest of the evening hours with temperatures falling back into the low 60s around sunset.
Tonight...high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our region. The high clouds will clear out and winds will be calm, resulting in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the low to mid 40s in most areas.
The surface high pressure ridge axis will gradually slide east into New England, but it will keep the area rain-free during the day Tuesday. Clouds will increase from the southwest during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower across the Western Southern Tier towards sunset. Otherwise, pleasant and warm with highs in the 70s inland. Cooler along the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie due to a northeasterly lake breeze.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday night, a warm front extending from stacked low pressure centered near North Dakota will move across the region from southwest to northeast. This front is likely to generate some convection upstream, with its remnants moving across our area.
Ample elevated instability to support some thunderstorms with this, especially Tuesday evening. Although precipitation will be convective, model agreement supports 70-80% PoPs for our area.
Showers will linger into Wednesday, especially east of Lake Ontario where the front will be last to exit. However, most of the day will be rain-free, especially across Western NY.
Following the warm frontal passage, temperatures will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for lower elevations south of I-90. For Wednesday night, it appears our region will be in between systems, with mainly rain-free weather. Chances for showers will increase from the west late in the night.
The stacked low will finally open into a trough aloft and begin to track slowly eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night.
With this, a surface reflection is forecast to track near the NY/PA border Thursday night. Models typically struggle with the progression of upper level systems like this, and there is some model agreement on the track and timing but fairly good agreement that there will be widespread showers as this system moves through. Chances for thunderstorms will be mainly along and south of the track of the low where there will be some instability. Meanwhile, there will be higher chances for precipitation north of the track since it will be more stratiform precipitation there. This will also bring cooler weather with below normal high temperatures on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid/upper-level troughing overhead and surface low pressure off the New England coastline at the start of Friday will slide eastward through the course of Friday and Friday night...allowing ridging at all levels to build eastward from the Upper Lakes. This will allow showers to mostly taper off from west to east through Friday night...though cyclonic/upslope flow may still keep a few of these going into later Friday night east of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes. Otherwise the cool cyclonic flow will result in decidedly below normal highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s Friday...with lows of 40-45 then following for Friday night.
On Saturday ridging at the surface and aloft will slowly drift east into eastern New York and western New England...while the next mid- level trough drops across the Upper Great Lakes. For the most part the aforementioned ridging should result in mainly dry conditions prevailing...though there could be a few lingering showers across our far eastern zones on the western fringes of the departing initial trough...as well as across far western New York later in the day as the leading edge of the next mid-level trough begins to impinge upon the area. Meanwhile some partial sunshine and modest airmass modification should allow highs to climb back into the mid 50s across the higher terrain and the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.
The next mid-level trough will then drop across the area Saturday night and Sunday while bringing a commensurate increase in shower potential...with the latter likely to peak Sunday afternoon in conjunction with daytime heating/destabilization of the lower levels. After that disagreement rapidly increases amongst the medium range guidance on how quickly this trough flattens out/departs...and with the resulting forecast uncertainty in mind will keep a general chance of showers in the forecast through Sunday night and Monday.
As for temps...these should climb back to near normal levels (highs in the mid-upper 60s and lows in the mid-upper 40s) by the end of the period.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with no restrictions across all area terminals.
Tuesday...some mid-level clouds will approach from the west lake but VFR is likely to remain in place.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers.
MARINE
Surface high pressure with negligible winds and waves through Tuesday night. Onshore winds will pick up during the afternoon hours due to lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds will briefly pick up on Lake Erie on Wednesday behind a warm front. Then low pressure passing by to the south will cause easterly winds to increase Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for low-end small craft headlines.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 17 mi | 53 min | SW 2.9G | 56°F | 29.89 | 38°F | ||
| 45215 | 19 mi | 57 min | 48°F | 47°F | 1 ft | |||
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 43 mi | 53 min | W 5.8G | 47°F | 44°F | 1 ft | 29.92 | |
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 75 mi | 53 min | W 2.9G | 60°F | 29.96 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 76 mi | 53 min | 60°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY | 11 sm | 59 min | WNW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 36°F | 47% | 29.92 | |
| KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY | 23 sm | 59 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 36°F | 39% | 29.93 |
Montague, NY,
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