Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belgium, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday March 30, 2017 1:44 AM CDT (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:25AMMoonset 10:31PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 831 Pm Cdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight cdt tonight through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming east 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain likely early in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Rain. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain likely through around midnight, then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of rain in the morning, then slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet late in the afternoon.
LMZ643 Expires:201703301015;;288504 FZUS53 KMKX 300131 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 831 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ643-644-301015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belgium, WI
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location: 43.44, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 300420
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
1120 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Update
Forecast is on track. A bit of a lull in the showers here in the
late evening, but a stronger surge of rain is headed northeast out
of illinois and iowa. There's thunder in that activity, but
stability indices suggest it would struggle to get this far north.

We do have a slight chance of thunder in the forecast across the
south, so that's still looks good. Little in the way of snow is
expected north of milwaukee and madison.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Not much change to the TAF forecast. Look for CIGS to gradually
lower to MVFR overnight, then to ifr conditions after 12z
Thursday continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. A
windy and wet day is expected Thursday. Winds will be easterly at
15 to 30kts. Look for the rain to diminish toward late afternoon
on Thursday.

Prev discussion (issued 831 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017)
update...

strong and deep warm air advection is in progress across southern
wisconsin - most of it going up and over the cold boundary layer.

The first wave of rain has rolled into southern wisconsin this
evening, struggling against a dry and cold northeast wind. But,
the precip is finally overwhelming that dry air and the radar
coverage is filling in. The hrrr model suggests this first band
should diminish through the evening, with the next more
substantial wave of rain coming after about 3 am tonight and
continuing through much of Thursday. I've been updating hourly
temps and dewpoints using short range blended guidance and it's
looking a few degrees warmer overnight than previously thought.

Not surprising with all the clouds and rain saturating things up.

This is enough to probably keep the snow threat pretty low across
that sheboygan to marquette area. We could still see some mix up
there late tonight through about 9 am, but with air temps staying
around 36-37f and enough of a warm layer aloft, it will be hard to
get any accumulation that would be problematic. Adjusted accums
to 1/2 inch or less.

Marine...

northeast winds are gusting to small craft advisory levels south
of milwaukee now. Have started the small craft advisory a few
hours early there and will start it by midnight north of
milwaukee. Brisk northeast to north winds will continue through
Friday night as low pressure passes by slowly to the south of
wisconsin.

Prev discussion... (issued 624 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017)
update...

rain is spreading in, but based on radar trends it is clear there
is a battle with dry air going on. Eventually, the column will
saturate and the rain will make better progress north. This first
band may erode by mid evening with the next, main area of rain
arriving shortly after midnight. These details are tough to
resolve with good temporal fineness, so expect the initial period
of this wet forecast to be on and off with the rain, then more
steady late tonight through Thursday. With regard to the snow
threat to the north, temps and dewpoints are still on the mild
side for it to become much of a problem. Lows tonight shouldn't
drop much below 37f, so whatever falls will have a hard time
sticking.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

look for CIGS to gradually lower to MVFR levels later this evening
with ifr cigs/vsbys pushing in around sunrise on Thursday as rain
becomes steady across all of southern wisconsin. No ice or snow is
expected with this entire system over the TAF sites. We may see
some snow mix in around sheboygan and fond du lac, but little in
the way of accumulation. Look for northeast winds to steadily
increase overnight into Thursday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 320 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017)
short term...

tonight and Thursday - confidence... Medium
an unsettled period with widespread rain gradually overtaking the
area tonight. The primary mid level circulation will stay to our
south as will the surface and 850 lows. 850 waa/moist advection
takes place tonight and lifts the 850 baroclinic zone northward. The
far northern CWA still looks thermally vulnerable for at least a
brief period of a snow or a mix. Amounts have continued a downward
trend with the 12z run and this has been reflected in the forecast
snow amounts with highest amounts of around an inch in the far
northern reaches of our northern tier of counties. Some decent lift
noted with one 250 millibar jet MAX providing right rear lift
tonight then a renewed southerly upper jet pivots northward around
low with left front positioning on Thursday. Even a hint of some
coupling at times between these 2 features. Throughout the event
both the rap and NAM bufkit soundings show enough elevated CAPE to
warrant at least a small chance of thunder in the southern CWA so
have included that potential.

Thursday night through Saturday... Forecast confidence medium.

The weakening low pressure area and upper low will track from wrn
il to lake erie from Thu nt into Fri eve. The upper trough axis
extending north of the upper low will pass Thu nt into Fri am.

Low to mid level frontogenesis may linger during this time. Thus
rain will continue to be likely over ERN wi for Thu nt with areas
of light rain or drizzle elsewhere including on fri. Gradual cold
and dry air advection Fri aft-eve will eventually lead to
clearing skies. High pressure will then prevail late Fri nt and
sat. The cool temps on Fri will return to seasonal values on sat.

Long term... Sunday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence low to
medium.

The passage of a weak shortwave trough and round of warm advection
will bring chances of light rain for late Sat nt-sun nt. Chances
of rain will then continue for mon-wed. Low pressure over the
lower ms river valley will move newd into the ohio river valley
for mon-tue followed by another low moving from the central great
plains into possibly the great lakes for wed-thu.

Aviation(update)...VFR ceilings will progressively lower this
period as rain overspreads TAF sites. Bufkit is showing the
process may take a while, with initially deep dry layer. Seeing
the upstream ifr conditions across ia and western il. Will
gradually head this way especially after 06z. Increasing forcing
will lead to rain development. Already seeing some of this across
eastern iowa with mid level returns into western wi. This precip
fighting off some dry air in the low levels. As low pressure
approaches tonight into Thursday morning we will see ifr ceilings
and vsbys develop. May even have an isolated thunderstorm or two
as soundings are implying some elevated instability. With low
pressure passing to our south later tonight into Thursday a
tightening pressure gradient will set up rather gusty east winds.

Marine... Main focus shifts to increasing onshore and long duration
wind regime tonight which gets underway tonight. This will build
high waves near the shore and remain in place through late Friday
night.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt Saturday for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt Saturday for lmz643-644.

Update... Davis
tonight/Thursday and aviation/marine... Collar
Thursday night through Wednesday... Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 5 mi45 min E 17 G 18 39°F 1019.6 hPa (-3.8)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 22 mi45 min ESE 18 G 20 39°F 1019.8 hPa (-3.1)34°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 28 mi35 min ENE 20 G 23 38°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI17 mi70 minE 810.00 miOvercast37°F37°F100%1019 hPa
Sheboygan, Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi52 minE 810.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4E5E5E8E7E8E10NE10NE11NE8
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2 days agoNW3W4NW6NW4NW4CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E5NE5NE6E5CalmNE3N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.