Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belgium, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday February 22, 2018 8:13 PM CST (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 12:44AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 705 Pm Cst Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..East wind 15 to 20 knots veering south early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of drizzle and slight chance of snow through around midnight. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain early in the morning. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight.
Friday..South wind 10 to 20 knots veering southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain, drizzle and light freezing rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering northwest with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering east late in the morning, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:201802230500;;398757 FZUS53 KMKX 230105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-230500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belgium, WI
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location: 43.44, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 222341
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
541 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018

Update
Very messy, low confidence winter weather situation across the
area right now. Current batch of precipitation pushing through the
area is on the nose of the warm advection, and as it moves
through, many sites are falling to around freezing due to
evaporative cooling. Initially, precipitation was struggling to
make it through the dry air, but as it does make it to the
surface, it seems to generally be falling as a true wintry mix of
snow, sleet and rain freezing rain.

This mixed precipitation will continue for a few more hours,
before fog and drizzle, mixed with occasional rain freezing rain,
moves in. Temperatures will start to go up later tonight as low
level warm air advection kicks in, but exact timing of that is
tricky. It's certainly possible that the worst period of road
conditions is this evening through the first half of the
overnight, with an improvement towards daybreak as temperatures
get into the mid to upper 30s.

Given the ongoing mixed precip and falling temperatures, went
ahead and moved up the start time to the winter weather advisory
to the current time. Also added green, waukesha, and ozaukee
counties, where temperatures have wet bulbed to freezing.

Impacts with this event will likely be extremely variable.

Drivers should be ALERT for very rapid changes in road conditions
over short distances.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Messy next 24 hours or so for the terminals, with a variety of
precipitation along with deteriorating flight conditions.

Starting out this evening, wintry mix is moving through the msn
area, and will get very close to kues. This should eventually
give way to ifr and then lifr ceilings and visibility later this
evening. Temperatures at msn will be near the freezing mark, and
some periods of freezing rain and or freezing fog aren't out of
the question. Elsewhere, temperatures should be above freezing by
midnight or so, with just rain and drizzle expected.

For all terminals, some guidance has been taking visibility to
less than 1 2 mile; this will need to be watched. Upstream
observations have generally been around 1sm, so stuck to that for
now.

Conditions should gradually improve tomorrow, eventually returning
toVFR by late in the day.

Prev discussion (issued 318 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018)
short term...

tonight and Friday... Forecast confidence is high...

as has been typical of late, a rather complex wintry precipitation
forecast. At this hour, mid level moisture continues to stream
over the area. The most we could muster so far is sporadic reports
of a few flakes rain drops as snow aloft evaporates in the dry
lower levels. In spite of abundant cloud coverage and easterly
flow, temperatures have steadily warmed today, though dewpoints
are lagging a bit in this dry low level flow which will have an
impact on our forecast as we head into this evening.

Low level moisture will steadily increase over the next few hours
and lift will continue to increase in a warm advection regime.

Persistent isentropic upglide is expected from late this afternoon
and evening which should eventually produce light precipitation.

Initial precip type will likely be snow sleet given sufficient
moisture in the ice growth region aloft and low level wet bulbing
effects. With time, though, the presence of cloud ice will become
questionable if not downright variable. By this evening, there is
enough variability in the presence of cloud ice that a light mix
of snow sleet rain is expected. Initial light precipitation will
primarily be along and west of a line from monroe to madison to
fond du lac. Precipitation amounts this evening do not look
robust, but any areas of temperatures at below 32 will pose a risk
for glazing and slick spots on roads.

Overnight, cloud ice aloft remains variable (at best) and a low
level warm nose will increase as surface low pressure passes just
to our northwest. As a result snow will become less likely and
rain some pockets of sleet will become dominate. The best risk of
at below freezing temperatures will be in the current advisory
area where a glazing to up to one tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation is forecast. Locations along and southeast of a line
from monroe to janesville to waukesha to port washington look to
remain at or above freezing by the time precipitation moves in, so
at this point just rain is expected overnight (perhaps a few
sleet pellets snow flakes at the onset as we moisten up).

The good news is that the freezing line will be on the move
northward overnight. So the most dicey period for glazing light
mix accumulation will be this evening through about 3 am, with the
freezing line nearly north of the area by daybreak. Given
nighttime timing and low level temperature variability, there is
no need to alter the going advisory. The main message will be
travel impacts that will be variable - some locations wet, others
slick - and prepare for a slower morning commute.

Lingering light rain exits to the east during the daylight hours
of Friday morning with at least partial clearing expected in the
afternoon. Highs will be above average in the 30s to around 40
degrees.

Friday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence medium.

Polar high pressure will shift from the NRN great plains to the
nrn great lakes for Fri nt-sat am. Afterward, cyclogenesis will
begin from the central and southern great plains to NRN mo by 00z
sun as a sharp upper trough ejects newd from the 4 corners region.

The low will then track newd and rapidly deepen to 982 mb near
the wi and upper mi border by 12z sun. Low to mid level warm,
moist advection and the approaching sharp upper trough will begin
the rain by late Sat afternoon or early evening. An occluded
front will then pass through the evening with at least slight
chances for tstorms. The fairly fast movement of this system only
results in forecasted rainfall amounts around 0.25 inches at this
time. The occluded low may then deepen to 979 mb as it moves from
lake superior into ontario, canada. The strong low and steepening
lapse rates via cold advection will allow wswly wind gusts to
approach wind advisory levels for Sun am.

Long term... Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence medium.

A broad but low amplitude ridge will prevail over the ERN usa for
early in the week. Persistent swly flow will occur for mon-tue.

High temps for those days will range from the middle 40s to the
lower 50s. Afterward, confidence lessens due to the uncertain
interaction of upper waves in the NRN and SRN streams of a split
flow jet stream. Weak or fairly strong cyclogenesis may occur and
bring mixed pcpn to SRN wi for Tue nt-thu. Polar high pressure
will then return for fri.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

the going forecast is largely on track. The biggest change with
this update is to shrink the duration of light freezing rain and
sleet at msn to just this evening. Slow warming is expected
during the overnight hours. Precipitation type at ues, mke and enw
still looks to be of the liquid variety with air temperatures
above freezing.

CurrentVFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR this
evening and then ifr lifr overnight. Visibility restrictions will
be most common with precipitation and generally in the MVFR range.

Winds will be easterly, shifting to southerly overnight and
westerly Friday morning as low pressure exits to the east.

Conditions will improve during the daylight hours of Friday
morning with partial clearing during the afternoon.

Marine...

east-northeasterly winds will shift to southeasterly this evening
and continue to increase with time. 3 to 5 ft waves build to 4 to
7 feet tonight. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Winds will become westerly Friday as low pressure exits, but
become east-southeast again later Saturday and Sunday in advance
of our next low pressure passage. Still looking at the potential
for strong low pressure to move through the great lakes region
Sunday, with increasing winds and waves in response.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Friday for wiz046-047-051-
052-056>060-062>065-067-068.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am cst Friday for lmz645-646.

Small craft advisory until 8 am cst Friday for lmz643-644.

Update... Boxell
tonight Friday and aviation marine... Boxell
Friday night through Thursday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 5 mi34 min ENE 8.9 G 12 35°F 1031.2 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 22 mi74 min NE 13 G 14 34°F 1032.3 hPa (-1.5)30°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 28 mi24 min ENE 11 G 12 34°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI17 mi39 minENE 810.00 miOvercast32°F30°F93%1030.1 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi21 minENE 810.00 miOvercast33°F30°F89%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE4CalmNE4N3N4NE4NE4N3N4N6E6E10E10E12E6E9E8E11
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2 days agoNE6CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW13
G26
E3S3SE3S3S3SW3W8W10W9
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W12W7W8
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.