Wednesday, July26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belgium, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday July 25, 2017 11:41 PM CDT (04:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:09AMMoonset 9:57PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 918 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 25 2017
Rest of tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Isolated Thunderstorms late in the evening. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the morning. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northwest after midnight, veering north 5 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots, backing north 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ643 Expires:201707261030;;836788 FZUS53 KMKX 260218 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 918 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-261030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belgium, WI
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location: 43.44, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 260251 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
951 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017

Update
Elevated convection, driven by low level jet pointing into
northeast and east central wisconsin, clipped northeastern
sheboygan county. This activity will continue to shift away from
the area late this evening. There are a few weak showers in
northwestern portions of the area, but these are not expected to
last very long.

Kept low pops going for later tonight across the far northern
portions of the area, in case some showers or storms from the
north drift into those areas. Most of the night should remain
dry. Mesoscale models have any approaching elevated convection
later tonight into Wednesday morning weakening and staying just
north of the area, where the better upward vertical motion fields
are expected to be located.

00z NAM run continues to focus the main area of convection for
later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night to the southwest of
the area. The low level jet focuses mostly in this area. It does
have some convection affecting the forecast area, as the cold
front moves through the area Wednesday night.

Deep layer bulk shear is at 25 to 35 knots, with varying amounts
of mean layer cape, depending on the model. Think current slight
risk area from SPC looks good for now, and may need a further
nudge to the southwest if other models are similar to the nam.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible with high precipitable water
values and other favorable heavy rainfall parameters.

Wood

Marine
South winds will linger at 10 to 20 knots across the nearshore
waters of lake michigan overnight. This will bring waves of 2 to 4
feet, highest toward the sheboygan area. Winds will gradually
weaken and become more west southwest on Wednesday, with lower
waves.

Scattered thunderstorms should move through the area later
Wednesday afternoon and night. Gusty winds and hail are possible
in any stronger storms.

Gusty northeast winds Thursday into perhaps Friday will bring
building waves of 3 to 6 feet to the nearshore waters of lake
michigan. These waves may linger as late as Friday night. A small
craft advisory may be needed for this period.

Wood

Prev discussion (issued 648 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017)
update...

aviation(00z tafs)...

winds will become south and decrease somewhat tonight, then become
west southwest on Wednesday. Middle to high clouds will continue
to push through the area early this evening, before more extensive
clouds move in later this evening and overnight. Middle to high
clouds will linger on Wednesday, with some diurnal cumulus
possible.

Lower ceilings to 3500 feet with scattered thunderstorms should
move east through the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Visibilities down to around or below alternate minimums are
possible with any storms, along with gusty winds and hail. Best
shot for strong to severe storms, and heavy rainfall, will be
south and west of madison during this time.

Wood
prev discussion... (issued 226 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017)
discussion...

tonight - confidence... Medium
precip shield associated with morning MCS has shown a considerable
diminishing trend and this will continue. Plenty of debris
cloudiness will remain into this evening. With the surface high
shifting off to the east the return flow will pick up. Already
seeing a boost in the dew points back to near or above 60 here
with higher numbers upstream poised to move in our direction. At
this time it appears the better focusing will be to our north
where 500 millibar vort action lower level frontal convergence
and axis of LLJ meet up. Cannot rule out some parts of our north
being grazed so have some pops in place there a bit later on.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
main focus will be on convective trends with approaching frontal
boundary from the northwest. While the primary front stays to our
northwest during the day, there is a 500 millibar shortwave that
is proggd to arrive during the afternoon hours. There is also some
divergence noted with the west east moving jet stream across the
upper lakes region. The progs suggest the western and northern cwa
would have the better chances for tsra development so have a nw-se
gradient in pops. Some model differences noted on degree of
instability during the afternoon with wind fields not exactly
overly favorable. 925 temps rise into the low mid 20s celsius so
expect plenty of temps reaching the mid 80s.

Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is high.

There's very good consensus among the models that the cold front
will push south through the area, likely exiting southern
wisconsin shortly after midnight. The arrival of a mid level short
wave tracking in from NE ia will help to energize the activity in
the afternoon and evening across southern wi... Especially the
southwest. Shear is decent enough, but not impressive. Cape
values are quite varied among the models with the NAM most
aggressive. But again, nothing too extreme. In fact, the NAM is
most aggressive with many of the fields and is likely suffering
from it's usual convective feedback issues. The models do tend to
focus the heaviest rainfall amounts across our western forecast
area, with lighter amounts in the east. However, as we've seen
with all of the events this month, we need to remain open to
shifts in these placements once the activity gets going. There
will be ongoing convection prior to it arriving in southern wi and
how that evolves will certainly have an influence on subsequent
development.

The SPC has backed off on the slight risk across southern
wisconsin. Keeping it mainly south and west of a baraboo to
watertown to paddock lake line. Our far southeast and northeast
are now just in a marginal risk. I like this adjustment, focusing
more on our southwest, closer to the nose of the low level jet and
expected cold pooling behavior.

Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure builds across the area during this period. There is
a potent short wave that drops northeast wisconsin later Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night. There may be some diurnal
showers across the north that could sneak into our northern cwa
before they die at sunset. Temps and humidity will be comfortable.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence is low.

The GFS is suggesting a cold front could be the focus for showers
and storms during this period, while the ECMWF is much drier
looking. We'll carry small chances for this potential.

Aviation(18z tafs)... MCS has decayed with just debris cloudiness
remaining. Progs hinting at some MVFR cloudiness forming later
tonight into sc wi. Main concern will be with potential for
strong to severe storms later Wednesday Wednesday evening though
some development possible prior to 00z ESP in sc wi.

Marine... Winds and waves expected to remain below small craft
levels into Wednesday. However, a southerly flow will be in place
ahead of a frontal boundary. Scattered storms, a few strong, are
most likely Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

Beaches...

brisk northeast winds by Thursday afternoon will likely result in
high swim risk conditions along the lake michigan shore.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Wood
tonight Wednesday and aviation marine... Collar
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 5 mi61 min S 4.1 G 8 71°F 1020.7 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 22 mi41 min S 14 G 16 69°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.0)64°F
45013 24 mi62 min S 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 68°F1020 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 28 mi31 min S 8.9 G 9.9 71°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI17 mi66 minS 510.00 miFair66°F57°F73%1019.6 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi48 minSSE 410.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S7S6SW9S5S4S11
G15
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1 day agoN4NW4CalmN3N4N6N5N8NE5N7NE10
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2 days agoSW3SW3CalmE5E5SE5S3SW5SW4W7NW9NW8NW5NW4W8W7NW6NW6E5E6NE13NE7NE6N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.