Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:54PM Friday February 22, 2019 6:17 PM PST (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 233 Pm Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions are expected into through Saturday. A weak front will move into the waters tonight, but winds will remain below small craft. This front is expected to shift north Sunday with increasing south winds that could reach gales by Sunday afternoon and last into Monday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakland, OR
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location: 43.46, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 222248
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
248 pm pst Fri feb 22 2019
discussion... It is a rather beautiful, but crisp, day across
southern oregon and northern california today, but we should not
be complacent, as beginning tonight and tomorrow we will see a
shift to a persistent wet and stormy pattern. The forecast area
will be under the gun of an atmospheric river, situated along a
frontal boundary that is expected to stall out across the region
for several days. Wind, rain, snow, and even flooding will be
concerns through Wednesday. Light precipitation should move in
tonight, with snow levels of around 2000 feet. Amounts will be
light, but this will only be the beginning of things to come.

The main event in terms of precipitation is expected to
be Saturday night through Tuesday night. The models all show a
significant surge of moisture moving into the forecast area during
this time. This has the signature of an ar event which means we
could be dealing with significant amounts of precipitation. Overall
the models have come into better agreement with the location of
heaviest precipitation, but some difference exist. Either way, it
looks like the coast, coastal mountains, cascades and western
siksyou county will get the bulk of the precipitation.

The general consensus is we'll be on the "warm" side of things which
means snow levels will be higher on Sunday. However the ECMWF shows
the frontal boundary neat the california oregon border which could
result in lower snow levels Sunday in oregon. Right now, the
thinking is they are expected to be between 2500 and 3000 feet
Saturday night into Sunday morning, then between 3500 and 4000 feet
Sunday afternoon. They should be above the passes between grants
pass and canyonville, but it not looking good for the passes along
the cascades, including lake of the woods, crater lake, diamond lake
and portions of the east side. The best chance for road snow at
siskiyou summit will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon, it will be a close call and precipitation type
could vary from rain to rain wet snow or all snow. Much will depend
on where the frontal boundary is located. If nothing else, snow
amounts at siskiyou summit and east side could be less. A winter
storm watch remains in effect for the mountains and higher passes
and confidence is increasing that we'll upgrade the watch to a
warning sometime soon. Stay tuned for that. Please see pdxwswmfr
for more details. Needless to day we could see several feet of
snow, especially in the crater lake area from Saturday night
through Monday morning.

Meanwhile heavy rain will hammer the coast and coast range and
western siskiyou county. Mainstem rivers, small creeks and streams
are expected to rise with flooding possible. Because of this, the
decision was made to issue an area flood watch for most of the west
side to include the taylor creek and klondike burn scars. For now
opted not to issue a flash flood watch for the burn scars, but this
could change, so watch for updates. Also a flood watch has been
issued for the coquille river at coquille and coquille river at
myrtle point. Deer creek in roseburg will need to be watched
carefully. Currently the forecast is for it to remain below flood
stage. Additionally, an esf still remains in effect. Pdxffamfr and
pdxesfmfr both contain more details and information regarding the
flood threat.

There will be brief breaks in precipitation, meaning the rainfall
and snowfall intensity will be less. Right now we think
precipitation rates will be highest Sunday afternoon through Monday
afternoon, then again Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Keep in
mind the details on the timing could change.

Winds remain relatively calm until late Sunday into Monday. Low
pressure develops along the stalled front Sunday, and moves inland
north of newport Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will increase
as this happens. Pressure gradients are favorable for high winds
along the coast and in the shasta valley. The GFS is the most
ambitious showing -8 to -10 mb gradients late Sunday night into
Monday morning. The NAM however, is slightly weaker but still
indicates possible strong winds. East of the cascades, 700 mb flow
of 50 to 60 knots is being advertised in the model data.

Ultimately, the strength of the winds will depend much on where
the low actually moves inland. A further south trajectory would
put the strongest winds further south and conversely the same is
true for a more further north trajectory. Have issued a high wind
watch for portions of the coast, east side and shasta valley given
the current trajectory and model indicated pressure gradients. It
will be breezy elsewhere Monday, and it's likely that advisories
will be needed in the other usual places, like portions of the
rogue and shasta valleys as well as other locations of the east
side. Stay tuned for updates. -petrucelli br-y bpn
long term... Wet and active weather continues in the extended with
snow levels hovering around 5000 feet through Wednesday. Low
pressure lingers offshore just north of the area, and this will
continue to pull energy and moisture into the forecast area. Another
surface low develops, and moves into the coast late Tuesday into
Wednesday. There are the typical differences in strength and
location of this surface low, but another round of gusty winds,
along with periods of moderate to heavy rain, could be possible late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers will continue into Thursday with
snow levels lowering to around 2500 to 3000 feet. Precipitation
gradually tapers off late Thursday into Friday, and we'll see a
break in the weather for most of Friday. The break will be short-
lived, however, as the next system approaches from the southwest
late Friday night. Br-y

Aviation For the 22 18z tafs...VFR conditions are expected into
this evening. Ceilings will lower as a front moves into the area
tonight and could approach MVFR at the coast and umpqua basin,
including roseburg. Confidence on the timing of when flight
conditions change in these areas are low to medium and could change,
especially for roseburg. Elsewhere,VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period, although mountains could become partly
obscured towards daybreak Saturday around the rogue valley.

-petrucelli

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Friday 22 february 2019... Relatively
calm conditions will continue into Saturday. A weak front will move
into the area late tonight into Saturday, but winds will stay below
small craft.

The next potential hazard to mariners will be Sunday with stronger
winds from the south. Most of the guidance suggest gale force winds
are possible for the southern waters and portions of the northern
waters, therefore a gale watch has been issued. Note: the latest
ecmwf shows the frontal boundary draped further south near brookings
on Sunday which will result in lighter winds and a wind direction
from the southeast. Should future runs come in agreement with the
other models, then upgrades or additional marine headlines may be
needed. Stay tuned.

The models are actually in good agreement showing moderate to strong
south to southwest winds Sunday night through Monday morning, then
decreasing some Monday night. Winds on Tuesday will depend on the
location of the low. Some show another shot of moderate to strong
south winds Tuesday while others show weaker winds from the
southeast. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for orz030-031.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning for orz029-030.

Flood watch from late Saturday night through late Monday night
for orz021>028.

High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
orz021-022.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning for orz025.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning for orz027-028.

Ca... Flood watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for
caz080>083.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning for caz080.

High wind watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Flood watch from late Saturday night through late Monday night
for pzz350-356.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi41 min SE 1 G 5.1 51°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR16 mi24 minW 510.00 miOvercast49°F30°F50%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmS3E3S5SW4SE55W4W5
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmN6CalmN4N7CalmCalmN3N4N3N8N6N8NE5N8N8N9N8N7N5
2 days ago4S4S4SW5SW3S5CalmSE73CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S3SW3CalmCalmW53S63E3

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:18 AM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:26 AM PST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:17 PM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:43 PM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.156.57.276.14.631.7111.93.34.96.376.85.94.42.81.30.30.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:03 AM PST     7.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:11 AM PST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:02 PM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.65.46.77.26.95.74.22.61.40.91.22.23.75.36.576.65.642.410.20.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.