Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:43PM Monday May 27, 2019 4:02 AM PDT (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:42AMMoonset 12:47PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 258 Am Pdt Mon May 27 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A fresh northwest swell will be dominant into early Tuesday morning with seas at a minimum. High pressure offshore and low pressure inland will persist with a trend of strengthening northerly winds and increasing wind driven seas Tuesday through next weekend. Winds and seas will be highest south of port orford with steep seas likely to develop there Tuesday afternoon and gales possible as early as Thursday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakland, OR
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location: 43.46, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 270549
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1049 pm pdt Sun may 26 2019
updated aviation section

Update
Only a few updates this evening as storms are not as intense as
we were expecting earlier today. Lightning activity is pretty
minimal and satellite doesn't show any really strong updrafts.

The stronger storm activity seems to be farther north closer to
portland.

As some of the showers moved over klamath falls, we saw 0.25
inches fall in 30 minutes. Since these showers will be moving
south into the evening, we don't see any problems with flooding
for the remainder of today and tonight.

For more information beyond this evening and tonight, read the 2nd
paragraph below.

-smith

Discussion issued 457 pm pdt Sun may 26 2019
short term... Today through Wednesday... An upper low is currently
over central california, and this low will affect the southern
oregon and northern california weather through tomorrow at least.

Cool and cloudy conditions exist for most of the forecast area
this afternoon under deep northeasterly flow. About 40 lightning
strikes have already been observed in lake county this afternoon,
and these storms will likely spread westward with time. Some
sunshine will help increase instability and increase the chance
for some thunderstorms along and just east of the cascades. West
of the cascades there is a chance of storms to push off the
terrain, but the steering flow switches to northerly in the late
afternoon and may prevent showers storms from reaching the rogue
valley. Therefore, we have a slight chance of storms for most west
side valleys... And emphasis on the word "slight". One significant
note about the rain today is that some is expected to be heavy,
especially in lake, modoc, and eastern siskiyou counties. There's
enough agreement amongst models and post-processed guidance to
highlight this on social media and our weather story, so we have
done this. Confidence isn't high on any flooding, given no
flooding was reported in modoc county during recent heavy
rainfall, but a half inch of rain at alturas is near-record for
this time of year, so we wanted to highlight that.

Showers quiet down tonight due to loss of surface heating. On
Monday the area will still be influenced to some extent by the
large scale circulation that will be over southwest utah by then.

Upper level energy will move southward down the western edge of
the trough, traversing the forecast area during the afternoon.

This will combine with instability (much more sunshine and surface
heating Monday compared to today) to generate the chance for
thunderstorms for the eastern two thirds of the forecast area, to
include basically areas from the illinois valley and roseburg
eastward. One thing to note about tomorrow is that the convection-
allowing models (cams) and post-processed SREF calibrated
thunderstorm guidance are not showing much chance for storms west
of the cascades. Confidence is lower than normal for this part of
the forecast based on this disagreement. Normally we'd like to see
at least either the cams or SREF guidance indicating storms.

On Tuesday the shower and thunderstorm chances are confined to areas
from the cascades eastward, and on Wednesday afternoon similar
conditions are expected. Westerly flow aloft should keep shower and
thunderstorm activity in areas along and east of the cascades.

One main weather change for Tuesday and Wednesday will be a trend
towards warmer afternoon temperatures. Normal high temperatures near
medford are 76 for this time of year... And for klamath falls it's
68. We'll likely exceed those temperatures by Tuesday and warm by a
few additional degrees on Wednesday. This will only be the second
time we reach above normal readings in the past 2 weeks.

Keene
long term... Thu, may 30th through Sun night, jun 2nd... Overall,
this long term period will feature temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
above normal, except near normal temperatures along the coast when
the wind flow is onshore. There will be a gradual warming trend
that's expected to peak Saturday, june 1st with most interior
valley locations expected to reach 75 to 85 degrees for highs. In
general, precipitation chances initially along and near the
cascades will shift south and eastward with time as westerly flow
increases aloft.

More specifically, a 300mb jet maximum riding through the western
edge of the upper level trough from the northwest on Thursday is
expected to give rise to another round of showers and thunderstorms
from along and near the cascades eastward. Due to increasing NW flow
in the low levels, thunderstorms are not expected west of the
cascades.

By Friday dynamics for showers and thunderstorms will have shifted
south and east, primarily to eastern siskiyou and klamath counties
eastward.

This trend is likely to continue into Saturday, with the risk for
lightning thunder over for our area. A few showers still could form
in southern lake, SE siskiyou, and modoc counties.

By Sunday an upper level trough pushing into british columbia,
washington, and oregon may result in a push of marine of stratus and
fog inland onto the west side and provide enough dynamics along with
building heat to result in a slight possibility of showers and
thunderstorms over SE siskiyou, southern lake, and modoc counties.

Lutz

Aviation For the 27 06z tafs...

the rest of tonight through Monday morning, expect a mix ofVFR,
MVFR and ifr, with the lower conditions most likely west of kmfr,
including koth and krbg. Conditions should improve late Monday
morning or early Monday afternoon for most areas. Then, some showers
and thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and evening. Once
again these will be predominantly from the cascades siskiyous south
and eastward, though isolated cells could also develop across
eastern douglas and jackson counties. Marine stratus could hold
along the coast and will likely return Monday evening. -spilde

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Sunday, 26 may 2019... Winds and
associated steep seas diminish rapidly from north to south tonight
as low pressure moves farther inland and pressure gradients relax.

Relatively light winds and calm seas are expected Monday into
Tuesday morning. Then, a thermal trough develops along the coast
later Tuesday, which remains in place through the remainder of the
week and next weekend. This will drive moderate to strong north
winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially over the
waters south of CAPE blanco. Conditions are likely to be hazardous
to small craft from Tuesday afternoon on, and winds may approach
gale force during the afternoons and evenings toward the end of the
period.

-wright spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt this evening for
pzz350-356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi86 min Calm G 1.9

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR16 mi69 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast56°F50°F81%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N3N3CalmCalmN3N5N6N5NW43CalmS4CalmS3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4
1 day agoW3Calm3CalmS4CalmCalm5NW5W4NW4W5Calm5NW5CalmNW3N5NW5CalmN5N4N5Calm
2 days agoCalm4SW3N3CalmCalmCalm6N56N9
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W9NW116NW6NW5NW4CalmN3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Mon -- 02:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:17 AM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:24 AM PDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:08 PM PDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.22.62.42.52.93.54.14.44.443.32.51.71.10.811.62.53.64.55.15.45.1

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:02 AM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:09 AM PDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:53 PM PDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM PDT     5.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.732.52.42.533.64.24.44.33.93.12.31.510.81.11.82.83.84.75.25.35

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.