Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:46PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:22 PM PST (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:20PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 906 Pm Pst Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Light winds and seas will persist into early Tuesday. South winds will increase as a front approaches Tuesday afternoon and evening. The cold front will move across the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusty south winds, rain, and steep seas. A strong front will move across the area on Thursday and will bring the potential for south gales and very steep seas. High west swell is likely to follow Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakland, OR
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.46, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus66 kmfr 200425
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
825 pm pst Mon nov 19 2018

Discussion Low clouds and fog have formed in the umpqua basin,
and along the coast north of CAPE blanco. Expect fog to stick
around overnight and spread into the coquille valley, then scatter
tomorrow morning. While some scattered high clouds will pass over
the forecast area tonight, do not expect these to have much
influence on the fog situation west of the cascades. The main
update this evening was to adjust min temperatures tonight.

Scattered high clouds in the periphery of a low off the coast of
southern california will pass over the forecast area, mainly east
of the cascades. So, east of the cascades, overnight low
temperatures will be a fair amount higher than last night this
morning. In other words, instead of single digits in alturas and
lakeview, expect low teens. West of the cascades, temperatures
will be similar, or a few degrees higher than last night.

The forecast for Tuesday onward remains on track, see previous
discussion for details.

Aviation For the 19 18z tafs... .Ifr lifr CIGS visibilities in fog
have redeveloped along the coast, in the coquille valley and in the
umpqua basin this evening. These low CIGS vis will become widespread
in these areas and will persist through Tuesday morning, then clear
toVFR around 17-19z. Elsewhere,VFR conditions will continue
through the TAF period, however could not rule out patchy fog in the
illinois valley and grants pass area towards daybreak Tuesday. -cc

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Monday 19 november 2018... Light winds
and seas will persist into Tuesday morning. South winds will
gradually increase Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as a cold
front approaches. The cold front will gradually move across the
waters Tuesday night and Wednesday with gusty south winds, rain, and
steep wind driven seas. In fact there is concern seas could reach
hazardous criteria over the outer waters starting Wednesday morning.

Therefore have issued a hazard seas warning to account for this.

Prior to that, small craft conditions are expected Tuesday night.

Confidence is higher that a strong front will reach the waters
Thursday and could bring sustained gale force winds across most of
the waters. The models are hinting at a coastal jet from around cape
blanco north for about a 6 hour period late Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon, so it would not be out of the question some
areas could experience brief storm force gusts. Given the above
mentioned reasoning, have issued a gale watch. Details on all of the
marine hazards can be found at mwwmfr.

The models have backed off some on the high swell Thursday night
into Friday. Taking the wave watch bulletin at face value shows
total swell height between 12-13 feet. However combined seas could
end up very high at 16 to 20 ft during a likely peak late Thursday
night. -petrucelli cc

Prev discussion issued 258 pm pst Mon nov 19 2018
short term... Tonight through thanksgiving morning... Today's
forecasting efforts have been focused on the upcoming active
weather pattern as we transition from weeks of dry conditions to
a wet and cool regime. We're particularly interested in impacts to
travel because we have some of the busiest travel days of the
year coming up with the thanksgiving weekend.

Dry conditions will continue through Tuesday. With fuels vegetation
at record dry levels for this time of year, there's still heightened
concern about dangerous burning conditions, especially in areas that
become breezy on Tuesday like the shasta valley and portions of the
east side. Additionally, air quality observations show continued
degraded air quality under this ridge of high pressure, and our air
stagnation advisory continues through tonight for the east side and
coast... And through Tuesday night for west side valleys. After that,
our atmosphere will be well-mixed thanks to increasing winds and
some instability, and there will be no air stagnation concerns.

Digging into the details of the winds, gusty winds will first
impact the shasta valley Tuesday afternoon and then spread across
much of the forecast area Wednesday morning. Strongest winds
overall are expected in the shasta valley, at the coast, and east
of the cascades. We have a wind advisory out for the shasta valley
from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. There is some
potential for gusty winds to reach into the rogue valley, but this
requires several ingredients to come together. Right now we have
low to medium confidence in gusty winds surfacing in the rogue
valley Wednesday morning.

Moving on to rain snow impacts on the biggest travel day of the
year, a cold front will approach the coast Wednesday, spreading
precipitation across areas mainly from the cascades westward by
Wednesday afternoon. After weeks of dry weather and a high volume of
traffic on the roadways, there will be an increased risk for
accidents. Oils can build up on roadways and cause especially slick
conditions. Interstate 5 will be impacted by rainfall during the
day, with steadiest and heaviest rain most likely by the afternoon
and lesser rainfall in the morning. The exception could be the
mount shasta city area where heavier precipitation could start
in the morning along interstate 5 where snow levels will creep
down into the 4500 feet range (still above mount shasta city
level but getting close). Snow levels elsewhere Wednesday into
Wednesday night should be in the 5500 to 6000 ft range, so only
the highest elevation areas like crater lake, will be impacted
with snowfall. Behind the front Thursday morning, rain and
mountain snow showers are expected, and snow levels will be move
lower, around 5000 feet for most areas.

Long term... Thanksgiving through Monday... The wet pattern will
continue as the second, and strongest of the series of fronts will
pass through the pacific northwest and northern california. Analysis
of the newest data still largely supports maintaining the general
consensus of a soggy thanksgiving. The models have generally slowed
the front down, which allows for the strong winds ahead of the front
to build in on thanksgiving. The winds will be strongest at the
coast and along highway 101 as well as for interstate 5 in the
shasta valley during the late morning and early afternoon. Then, the
strong winds will spread to the east side, impacting most of the
roadways on Thursday evening and night.

The moderate to briefly heavy rain is expected to arrive Thursday
morning and linger through Friday. Confidence that significant rain
will fall across the coast and the coast range is high. This will
be the first big rainfall event this fall for southern oregon and
northern california (although it is typical for this time of year).

The heaviest rainfall areas will be near brookings and red mound at
the coast. The mt. Shasta area could see some moderate to heavy
rainfall as well. Although it is a low chance, we are still
concerned about isolated debris flows in a couple of the recent burn
scars. More information will come out on the exact nature of these
impacts in the coming days. The precipitation will linger into
Friday as well. Although the intensity will be less on Friday, the
precipitation will continue to be widespread. The overall rain
amounts on Thursday and Friday are expected to be quite generous for
the entirety of our forecast area.

Snow levels are unlikely to get lower than 4000 feet during the next
week with a snow level forecast to briefly fall to 4000 to 4500 feet
late Friday night into Saturday morning. We are confident that the
higher passes (diamond lake, lake of the woods, cedar pass) will
receive snow. We are also confident that the lower passes (sexton
summit, canyon creek, hays hill) will see only rain. Unfortunately,
with snow levels being where they are, we have low confidence
regarding whether or not siskiyou summit will see impactful snow,
although snowmans summit may see a bit more than previously
forecast. These model differences are critical but it is safe to say
that snow levels will be raising on Thursday with the incoming rain,
then lowering late in the day on Friday into early Saturday, and
will likely reach their lowest point early Saturday morning.

Snowfall amounts will be the highest in the cascades and at the top
of mt. Shasta, and could put us back on track for a reasonable
november snow pack.

For next weekend, models disagree on the extent to which a ridge
offshore from central and southern california will have an impact on
our weather. The GFS has started to come into line with the ecmwf
regarding a rebuilding of high pressure. Have gone ahead and nudged
the probability of precipitation down in the extended. If the high
pressure ridge does build in, we could very well see cold night time
temperatures after the rain snow events (beginning Saturday night).

Highs during that time frame should reach above freezing for the
valleys. Otherwise, increased probability of travel difficulties due
to persistent west side valley and coastal fog will begin in the
late weekend. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz024>031.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Wednesday for orz023.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz021.

Ca... Wind advisory from 7 pm Tuesday to 4 pm pst Wednesday for
caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm Tuesday to 4 pm pst Wednesday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 am to 4 pm pst Wednesday for
pzz370-376.

Msm cc nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 53 mi46 min SE 5.1 G 7 49°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last
24hr
E3
E5
E2
G6
SE3
SE3
E1
SE1
SW1
S2
SW1
NW1
W2
NW3
NW3
W3
E1
W5
W3
G6
E2
S1
G4
S4
G7
SE4
SE3
G7
SE3
G6
1 day
ago
E4
SE3
SE1
SE2
S2
S1
SE1
SE2
SE1
G4
SE2
S1
G4
S2
E3
E1
N3
NW2
G5
N3
N2
NW1
G4
--
E3
E4
SE3
G7
NE3
2 days
ago
E3
E5
E5
E5
E5
--
N7
G11
N6
G11
N7
G10
W3
W3
W1
S1
E1
W1
--
--
S2
--

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR16 mi29 minN 00.25 miFog38°F37°F100%1018 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3Calm
1 day agoCalm3CalmSW3CalmCalmNW3CalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3N3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Reedsport
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 AM PST     1.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:56 AM PST     6.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:44 PM PST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:48 PM PST     5.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.14.43.42.51.81.62.13.14.45.76.776.65.64.32.81.50.70.61.12.13.44.65.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 AM PST     1.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM PST     6.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:29 PM PST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:33 PM PST     5.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
54.23.22.31.71.72.33.44.866.86.96.45.33.92.41.30.60.61.32.53.84.95.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.