Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oswego, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:34PM Friday May 24, 2019 9:15 AM EDT (13:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905240930;;366837 Fzus51 Kbuf 240548 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 148 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-240930- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 148 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswego, NY
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location: 43.47, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241044
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
644 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will pass over the lower great lakes resulting in
mainly dry weather today. Conditions will then deteriorate late
tonight through Saturday night due to a pair of frontal systems
which will push through the region. High pressure will then ridge
southward from canada and into the great lakes providing mainly dry
weather for Sunday and Monday.

Near term through tonight
High pressure over the upper great lakes will gradually build across
the region and provide mainly dry weather for today. Moisture
will circulate around stacked low pressure centered near maine.

This will support some morning cloud cover, and some light
showers east of lake ontario. Breaks of sunshine will increase
from west to east as this system exits off the maine coast this
afternoon. Today will be cooler than yesterday with high
temperatures in the mid 60s for most areas.

High pressure across the region this evening will maintain dry
weather well into tonight. However the mid-level ridge axis will
move to our east late tonight with a warm front approaching the area
from the west. Some showers and thunderstorms will develop along a
mid-level thermal gradient and move into far western new york
late tonight. Areal coverage should be scattered in nature
through daybreak. Low temperatures will be near or shortly
after midnight with radiational cooling hindered by mid and high
level cloud cover which will be moving into the region from the
southwest.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
A strong anticyclone over the southeast will be advancing gulf of
mexico moisture northward through the mississippi valley to close
out this week. On Saturday this moisture will reach our region,
producing a noticeable rise in humidity, while also fueling showers
and thunderstorms through the day and evening.

A warm front will nose eastward into western new york Saturday
morning, with elevated instability of 250 - 500 j kg supporting some
convective rain showers. The isentropic gradient will lie across
lake erie, and towards the thruway early Saturday morning, and along
this boundary is also where condensation pressure deficits will fall
to support rain showers. Will start the day for the niagara frontier
with categorical pops... And with the LLJ still well to our west any
thunderstorm should be just a garden variety. This activity will
likely weaken some through the morning hours as it pushes eastward
across lake ontario and towards the north country.

The falling rain, plus a southerly stream of moisture will raise
dewpoints into the mid 60s across wny, and upper 50s east of lake
ontario. By may standards... This will be a bit humid. This increase
in moisture as well as daytime highs in the 70s to near 80f will
increase sb CAPE through the day to 1000 to 2000 j kg.

Precipitation coverage may be sparse around midday, and not until
much later in the afternoon and into the evening hours will showers
and thunderstorms return. A shortwave will ripple eastward across
southern ontario Saturday afternoon helping to produce a line of
showers and thunderstorms. Aided by a 45 to 55 knot llj, and 0-6 km
bulk shear values of 50 to 55 knots storms blossoming within this
unstable environment could become strong to severe, with damaging
winds the likely threat. CAPE profiles aloft on point soundings look
to be more tall and skinny... Which would not favor hail formation.

If greater CAPE develops, hail could be possible with taller cells.

With confidence growing in the low level wind profiles, will place
gusty winds into the grids for these thunderstorms across portions
of wny. To the east while thunderstorms are still likely, the
instability will be weaker... And for now will not place gusty winds
into the forecast. At this time the period for severe thunderstorms
will likely be in the late afternoon and through the evening hours.

Sunday a weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the
region. We will still be on the humid side to start the day and a
few showers or thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon
as we'll remain unstable. This precipitation will end through Sunday
early evening as moisture depletes as surface high pressure over
canada funnels drier air southward. Skies will clear through the
night with overnight temperatures dropping back into the lower 50s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Increased ridging will begin on Monday over the eastern third of the
country. This will provide rainfree conditions for Monday, with
comfortable levels of humidity as surface high pressure to the north
pushes drier air southward.

As the ridge strengthens over the southeast u.S., a similar scenario
to this weeks weather will take shape. The ridge over the southeast
u.S. Will cause waves of low pressure to trek northeast out of
western half of the country where a trough will be in place. Waves
of low pressure will increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday across western and north
central ny.

Ahead of these areas of low pressure warming temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will bring highs across the area to the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A passing cold front late Wednesday early Thursday will
bring slightly below normal temperates to the area with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
A closed low will settle across maine this morning which will
increase moisture and result in cloud cover and lower cigs
through the morning hours. This will result in areas of MVFR
clouds, especially east of lake ontario but also south of lake
ontario where these clouds will be more patchy in nature.

Cloud bases will lift late this morning, and eventually scatter
out this afternoon and evening with widespreadVFR flight
conditions. A warm front will approach from the southwest late
tonight. This will result in an area of low to mid level clouds
and possibly a shower or thunderstorm west of rochester near
daybreak Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Some storms could produce gusty winds.

Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds have picked up behind a cold front, which will support
small craft advisory conditions this morning, particularly along
the southeastern shores of lake ontario.

Winds will then subside this afternoon as high pressure will
push east from the upper great lakes. Generally light winds and
negligible waves can then be anticipated tonight and Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
A cold front has moved across the area with westerly winds
producing higher waves, especially across the eastern half of
lake ontario. This combined with very high lake levels will
result in flooding along the shorelines of wayne... Northern
cayuga... And oswego counties. Winds and waves will diminish by
this afternoon which will lower the flooding concerns.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning until 11 am edt this morning for
nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for loz043-
044.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Sw thomas
aviation... Apffel rsh
marine... Apffel rsh
tides coastal flooding... Jjr apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 0 mi34 min W 17 G 22 47°F 1015.5 hPa44°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 29 mi76 min W 14 G 16 46°F 43°F3 ft1015.1 hPa (+3.6)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 48 mi26 min W 16 G 18 42°F 37°F4 ft1017.1 hPa41°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 59 mi76 min WNW 16 G 22 57°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 61 mi34 min 60°F 1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY10 mi22 minWNW 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast55°F46°F74%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4SE33S8S7S8S7
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1 day agoNE5E433CalmS6SW3NE53E3Calm3SE6SE43S83SE3Calm3SE3333
2 days agoNW11
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W15NW14
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W14W11W8NW7NW5NW4CalmCalm--W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.