Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:41 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404290300;;543287 Fzus51 Kbuf 282048 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 448 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-290300- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 448 pm edt Sun apr 28 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely early, then a chance of showers from late evening on. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 282235 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 635 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak frontal boundary will sag southwards from Lake Ontario tonight and this could touch off a few showers especially near or east of Lake Ontario. The front will remain stalled over our area on Monday with afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of the boundary to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. While there can be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm well south of Buffalo and Rochester, most areas will be rain free. Temperatures this week will average well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
While a wave of shortwave energy will push north of our forecast tonight...a weak cold front will sag south from Lake Ontario. This boundary could touch off a few inconsequential showers...mainly near and east of Lake Ontario...but more noticeably it will set the stage for a duality in temperatures. The bisecting nature of the front will lead to overnight lows that will range from the mid 40s across the North country to between 55 and 60 across the Southern Tier.
Along with more shower activity to the north of the stalling boundary...there will also likely be some fog.

On Monday...the aforementioned west to east oriented frontal boundary will be stalled across our forecast area. Low level convergence in the vcnty of the boundary that could result in some afternoon showers and thunderstorms well south of Buffalo and Rochester...otherwise impressive ridging aloft with relatively dry air in the mid levels should prevent widespread pcpn from breaking out. The bisecting frontal boundary will keep a large temperature range over our region with max temps ranging from the lower 60s in the Thousand Islands region to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier.

Monday night...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. While this in turn will push our stalled frontal boundary out of our region...we will have to turn our attention to the showers and thunderstorms that will be targeting our region from the northwest. Most of this activity should hold off until after midnight
Unfortunately
this scenario will most certainly set the stage for unsettled weather on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level ridge across the Northeast region early Tuesday will move off the east coast through the afternoon. A cold front will extend from Georgian Bay to central Lake Erie and into central Ohio Tuesday morning. Most of the forecast area will be in the warm sector in the morning, with the exception of the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley where they remain on the cool side of a warm front.
The combination of deep moisture and an approaching cold front increases confidence that showers will be entering far western NY around daybreak Tuesday. The risk for lightning is low, however not non-zero. There is good agreement that the cold front will move across the forecast area Tuesday, however confidence is medium that showers will stay intact and move across the entire forecast area through Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across interior portions of the forecast area where daytime heating will increase the probability of showers and a few thunderstorms. Locations across the Niagara Frontier may only see showers Tuesday morning and they stay dry the rest of the day.
The risk for strong to severe storms is low due to the timing of the front Tuesday. Most of the forecast area will be behind the front by Tuesday afternoon and result in instability further east. Any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall due to anomalously high PWATS for late April. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across western portions of the forecast area to the mid to upper 70s across the Finger Lakes region.

The front will move east of the forecast area Tuesday night. Showers will diminish across north central NY Tuesday evening. Mostly dry weather expected across western NY overnight. Lows will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Surface high pressure will move into the region Wednesday through Thursday and dry weather is expected. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 70s both days, cooler conditions expected near the lakeshores.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Largely dry weather Thursday night will encompass much of the forecast area overnight
However
we will need too keep an eye on a warm frontal boundary extending east from a low pressure system tracking across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. This would mainly be for the North Country where we have kept low end PoPs (20% or less) for a shower or stray thunderstorm
After that
increasing moisture will be drawn up ahead of an approaching cold front. This will once again bring increasing chances for showers by Friday evening which potentially lasts into the day Saturday. That said...there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how fast this whole system (cold front) clears the eastern Great Lakes. Given that...have held onto low end chances for additional showers on Saturday but it could end up being dry.

High pressure briefly builds into the Lower Lakes Saturday night which will bring any remaining showers to and end. Dry weather will likely last through much of the day Sunday but there is a moisture starved cold front that approaches the region. We could see some showers towards the end of the day but chances are low.

Overall...above normal temperatures will more than likely persist through this entire period.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the 00Z TAFS a cold frontal boundary sagging southward across the region is serving as a focus for rain showers, while also allowing for a light northeast flow that will likely produce widespread IFR flight conditions south of Lake Ontario tonight.
While a few hours of IFR ceiling heights are likely east of Lake Ontario along the sagging front, the concentration of fog and lower ceiling heights will be near KBUF, KROC and KIAG. Some patches of fog are possible in the Southern Tier including KJHW.

Ceilings and visibility will improve to MVFR in the 13-16Z timeframe. This frontal boundary will remain draped near the NYS Thruway tomorrow. Increasing amounts of sunshine and instability may allow for a shower or thunderstorm towards the south. Meanwhile, overcast skies and stable conditions to the north will maintain likely dry conditions. Some breaks in the MVFR ceilings to VFR tomorrow afternoon are likely for KBUF/KIAG and KROC.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario Monday. This will result in likely small craft conditions Monday on the central and western waters of Lake Ontario. Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few days.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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