Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saco, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:40 AM EDT (05:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 11:30PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 955 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy heavy drizzle late this evening. A slight chance of showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Some tstms may produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight. Areas of dense fog. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 955 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Moist onshore flow continues tonight...with low clouds and dense fog likely across all coastal waters. A cold front will approach from the west Tuesday...crossing the waters Tuesday night. Showers and Thunderstorms are likely with the front...some of which may contain gusty winds and torrential rainfall. High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday and remains over the waters through the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saco, ME
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location: 43.49, -70.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 170531 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
131 am edt Tue jul 17 2018

Synopsis
Very warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected to
continue into Tuesday across new hampshire and western maine.

The large bank of fog and low clouds over the gulf of maine is
forecast to move back inland tonight. Areas of dense fog are
likely along the coast... And may extend well inland by morning.

A cold front will approach through the day... With showers and
thunderstorms expected along and ahead of it. Some early day
rain and embedded thunder will give way to partial Sun and allow
for another round of afternoon storms. Some of these may be
severe... With damaging winds the main threat along with
torrential rainfall. Showers and storms push off the coast
Tuesday evening... With cool and drier air moving in behind it.

Near term until 6 am this morning
955 pm update...

slow moving convection with heavy rain is affecting cheshire
county tonight. Short-lived but heavy rainfall will be the main
concern as a couple cells drift north to join it in the next
hour or so. Dew points are increasing or holding near steady
with fog continuing to march inland. Many sites are already
reporting visibilities of a mile of less, and expect this trend
to continue with quarter mile being the rule along the coast and
as far inland as rochester nh, lewiston me, and waterville me.

Elsewhere valleys and places which received rainfall yesterday
will see a chance for lower visibilities as well. Pops were
pulled back over the next few hours closer to what cam models
are showing for FROPA timing. Adjustments were made to
temperatures, dew points, pops, and weather grids to reflect
these ideas.

650 pm update...

have added a few more counties to the dense fog advisory:
interior rockingham, androscoggin, kennebec, and interior waldo.

These counties had fog or dense fog last night and moisture will
be increasing throughout the column through the morning hours
ahead of the approaching cold front. Fog back has already moved
onshore via webcams and satellite imagery. Otherwise added some
drizzle along the coast where webcams are showing some droplets.

Clouds and temperatures were changed to better match the
expected conditions overnight.

Previous discussion...

a humid airmass continues to move into the region overnight
resulting in fairly widespread fog. Satellite shows a stratus deck
just offshore which will move inland after sunset with the coastal
plain rapidly dropping visibilities. Coastal cameras indicate low
visibility already present along the immediate coastline. A dense
fog advisory has been issued for the coast as well as portions of
interior southwestern maine. Further east through androscoggin and
kennebec county it is less confident that the marine layer will make
it all the way inland again as weak westerly flow begins overnight
and this area will need to be monitored. Similarly across southern
new hampshire the marine layer is currently suppressing
convection in portions of eastern rockingham county but there is
less confidence of the fog extending eastwards towards
manchester and nashua. This area will also need to be monitored
for an expansion of the dense fog advisory.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Tuesday will be a classic severe weather set up. The morning
starts off with fog and low stratus along the coast. This fog
will dissipate by mid morning leaving a humid airmass primed for
convection. A cold front approaching from the west will be the
trigger needed to get storms going. The front will arrive into
our far northwestern zones in the early morning crossing the
entire area from west to east reaching the coastline around 22z.

With CAPE values of 1500 j kg along with shear of 30+ kts
expect an organized convective line with severe wind gusts as
the main threat. Ahead of the line the humid airmass and low
level southerly and onshore flow will provide some low level
turning of the winds. If any storms are able to initiate ahead
of the main line there will be a threat for tornadoes within
these cells.

In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding will be a concern.

Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70s with pwat values approaching
2" will provide plenty of moisture for storms. Coupled with a deep
warm rain layer and you get very heavy rain rates. The big issue
here will be whether the storms are training in one location. If the
line is able to remain progressive through the entire region
significant flooding would likely be avoided however even minor
changes in direction of the line will serve to focus the
precipitation in one area. Despite the potential for flooding have
opted not to issue a flash flood watch at this point as the total
area likely to experience flooding will likely be relatively small
and with the line passing through the entire region its hard to
favor one portion of the CWA over another for flood risk.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Generally quiet extended forecast behind Tue cold front. High
pressure will build in in its wake... And more or less hold thru
the end of the week. Ridging build in aloft... And allows surface
high to hold over the region. Model guidance is hinting at nwrn
atlantic ridging to try and build wwd towards the end of the
period... Which will help to keep the next trof delayed. The
multi-model consensus however does have the next rain chances
moving in over the weekend... As deep swly flow sets up on the
wrn side of the ridge. Though it is at the tail end of the range
of guidance at this time... Naefs mean pwats are already forecast
to climb towards +2 standard deviations. That would mean after a
brief break... A return to humid conditions and possible
torrential rainfall in showers storms for the weekend.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term...

summary: a strong cold front will approach the region with
showers and thunderstorms today and cross the area tonight with
high pressure building into the region on Wednesday.

Restrictions: highly variable at the moment with psm-pwm-rkd-aug
all in vlifr fog with conditions generallyVFR to the west of
this. TheVFR areas may see a period of MVFR ifr fog stratus
through daybreak. Some improvement this morning... But arriving
shower and thunderstorm activity will keep MVFR ifr restrictions
through the afternoon with some severe storms likely... Esp
con- mht- pwm . Tonight expect some haze fog to develop with
MVFR ifr restrictions... But likely not dense like it is attm.

Conditions improve toVFR Wednesday.

Winds: southerly winds will shift southwest and increase to
around 10kts today before diminishing this evening and shifting
west northwest. Northwesterly winds 10-15kts are expected for
the day on Wednesday.

Llws: 1.5kft winds around 20kts fall short of llws criteria
overnight with no llws expected through Wednesday.

Lightning: there will be some threat of thunderstorm activity
for leb-con-hie this morning... But a much better chance all
terminals this afternoon. Confidence is lower that thunderstorms
will reach aug rkd.

Long term... ExpectingVFR conditions to hold thru the end of the
week. As high pressure moves in for the latter half of the
week... Afternoon sea breezes are likely as well as nocturnal
valley fog inland.

Marine
Short term... Dense fog will remain over the coastal waters
through tomorrow. Southwesterly flow will increase ahead of a
cold front moving through Tuesday evening and and SCA has been
issued for the outer waters.

Long term... Winds and seas expected to remain below sca
thresholds thru the end of the week.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for mez018>028.

Nh... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for nhz010-013-
014.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to midnight edt
tonight for anz150-152-154.

Synopsis...

near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation... Arnott
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 12 mi55 min N 1.9 66°F 66°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 13 mi40 min NE 1 G 2.9 66°F 65°F1013 hPa (-1.3)
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 16 mi40 min 64°F 60°F1013.2 hPa (-1.3)
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 17 mi50 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 65°F3 ft1012.8 hPa (-1.2)65°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 22 mi96 min N 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 67°F3 ft1011.7 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 36 mi55 min Calm 67°F 67°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 37 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 1012.4 hPa (-0.9)65°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME14 mi49 minE 30.25 miFog66°F66°F100%1013.4 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME15 mi44 minN 00.50 miLight Rain Fog66°F64°F96%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3N3CalmE4E15SE9
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1 day agoS4SE3S6CalmCalmS3S4CalmNE3CalmE6E5E7E5
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2 days ago344NW3CalmE4E55SE8S8SE6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Biddeford, Saco River, Maine
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Biddeford
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Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     11.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:38 AM EDT     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:44 PM EDT     10.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.28.210.21110.58.76.13.10.6-0.9-1.10.22.65.68.29.810.29.37.34.72.20.4-0.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wood Island Harbor, Maine
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Wood Island Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:54 AM EDT     10.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EDT     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:34 PM EDT     9.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:32 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
68.510.210.79.97.84.91.9-0.2-1.1-0.713.66.38.59.89.98.76.43.71.3-0-0.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.