Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saco, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:29PM Thursday April 18, 2019 2:40 PM EDT (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:37PMMoonset 5:51AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 918 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Friday evening...
Rest of today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy drizzle in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ100 918 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will settle east of the region with southerly flow developing over the waters today. This southerly flow strengthens on Friday and lasts through Sunday when a front moves in from the west. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saco, ME
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location: 43.49, -70.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 181734 aab
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
134 pm edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north through the region today. While
this front stalls in southern canada, a moist southerly flow
will persist over new england through the weekend. Several
rounds of showers will be possible as low pressure tracks
northward to the west of new england. A cold front on Sunday
will finally bring the wet weather to an end. Another cold front
drops in from the northwest Monday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
924 am update...

warm front aloft lifting through the region with a broken area
of light showers. Social media reports suggest that some sleet
may mix with the rain... But temperatures will quickly be
climbing above freezing... So do not expect significant impacts
from this. Updated near term forecast to better align with
observational trends but no very significant changes necessary
as of this hour.

5 am update...

showers are moving into southwest nh early this morning and have
issued an update to increase pops in this area for the morning
hours. Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast package
at this time.

Previous discussion...

good radiational cooling conditions are ongoing until daybreak
when clouds will begin to more fully arrive from the southwest
along a lifting warm front. This boundary could bring a few
scattered showers to the connecticut river valley and then
northern nh the western maine mountains during the day as it
lifts into southern canada, but overall moisture will be
limited.

Skies will become overcast early on and this will continue
through the day. Today will be warm, however, with northern new
england in the warm sector and southerly winds increasing
throughout the day. Expect highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Low pressure moves out of the northern great lakes Thursday
night and surges east along a cold front stretching from
southern quebec into the ohio valley and on into the gulf
states. Expect for showers to increase across mainly the
mountains and moosehead lakes region south to augusta late
tonight as this first low nears the international border.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over central somerset
county, me, to the upper 40s for cheshire and hillsborough
counties in southern nh.

During the day Friday, we'll initially see a break in bona fide
rain showers, with some minor drying in between the influence
of the first low pressure system and a second one approaching
along the elongated boundary to the west. Gusty southerly
southwesterly winds at the surface will also support warmer
temperatures Friday in the 60s and 70s. Clouds as well as
drizzle and fog will develop for the commute into the late
morning hours, with rain showers likely for all areas for the
remainder of the day. The baroclinic zone stalls to the north,
with any heavier showers occurring along it. Any heavier qpf
amounts should hold off until around sunset Friday night.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Ensemble and deterministic model solutions are in good agreement
on the long wave pattern through the start of the new work
week. We begin the period with a deep trough situated from the
great lakes southward to the gulf of mexico. The trough
eventually GOES negative tilt as it translates slowly eastward.

At the surface... A frontal boundary extends from the saint
lawrence valley southward along the spine of the appalachians
with a series of waves to propagate northward along it. A mild
and moist southerly flow with high precipitable water values
will precede this boundary with showers and scattered
thunderstorms yielding 1.5 to as much as 2 inches of rain this
weekend. Warm temperatures and a ripe snowpack coupled with the
anticipated rainfall will yield sharp rises in river levels this
weekend. Ensemble guidance suggests a number of river forecast
points reaching minor to moderate flood stage this weekend.

While the system exits by early Monday... Well above normal
temperatures are expected Monday in southwest flow ahead of an
approaching cold front. This additional snowmelt Monday should
slow the recession of area rivers. The cold front will cross the
area Monday night with scattered showers. High pressure with
cooler and drier air arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term...

summary: a warm front will lift north of the region through
tonight with deteriorating flying conditions. Low pressure will
pass north of the region overnight with a cold front then settling
into northern areas late Friday and Friday night.

Restrictions: expect conditions to deteriorate this evening to
MVFR ifr due to CIGS and potentially vsbys throughout the
terminals. On Saturday... Vsbys will improve toVFR... But cigs
will be slow to respond and may remain MVFR through much of the
day. Deterioration is likely again Friday night to ifr lifr in
fog drizzle and an increasing threat for rain... Particularly at
leb-hie-aug.

Winds: southeasterly winds 8-15kts will continue into this evening
before slowly shifting southerly overnight around 10kts with south
or southwesterly winds 12g20kts expected on Friday... Continuing
through the night Friday night.

Llws: tonight... Southwesterly winds at 1.5-2kft increase to over
40kts with llws likely throughout the terminals. It is likely that
llws will again occur under similar conditions Friday night.

Long term...

sat - sun... MVFR with areas of ifr in shra, fog and sct tsra.

Southerly wind gusting up to 25 kt.

Mon... Sct MVFR psb in -shra.

Marine
Short term... Have issued a small craft advisory for the outer
waters and also penobscot bay for winds around 25-30kts
beginning tonight and continuing into Friday. Currently casco
bay is not in an advisory.

Long term...

sat - sun... Scas... With gales possible outside the bays.

Mon... Scas are possible.

Hydrology
River levels remain high, though the only river still in flood
is the connecticut river at dalton. The high flow levels in the
rivers will set the stage for another possible flooding scenario
this weekend. Warm, moist air will move north into the region
with several rounds of rain possible. Through the weekend it is
expected that much of the remaining snow cover in northern new
hampshire and western maine will melt and run off into the
rivers. Although the location and amounts of the heavier
rainfall is still quite uncertain, there is the potential for
significant flooding to occur mainly in the headwaters. This
would most likely occur on Saturday into Sunday, with any
flooding possibly lasting into early next week.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tides this weekend will combine with a
prolonged onshore southerly flow to bring a threat for beach
erosion, splashover, and coastal flooding. Tides on Saturday and
Sunday reach 11 ft at portland and a building surge will likely
bring water levels to near or above flood stage during the
higher tide cycles.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Flood watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for
mez007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028.

Nh... Flood watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for
nhz001>009-011.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday
for anz150>152-154.

Synopsis...

near term... Arnott
short term...

long term...

aviation... Arnott
marine...

hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 12 mi100 min SSE 5.1 43°F 39°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 17 mi50 min S 12 G 16 42°F 41°F2 ft1023.5 hPa (-1.0)37°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 22 mi96 min S 14 G 18 42°F 41°F2 ft1023.8 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 36 mi115 min SE 4.1 45°F 1025 hPa37°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 37 mi40 min SE 18 G 20 41°F 1022 hPa (-1.8)39°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME14 mi49 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast44°F36°F73%1023.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME15 mi44 minSSE 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast45°F34°F66%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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W8NW9S10S7SW7SW4SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4S6S7SE7S8S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Orchard Beach, Maine
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Old Orchard Beach
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Thu -- 04:37 AM EDT     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:58 AM EDT     10.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:01 PM EDT     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:22 PM EDT     10.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.96.53.50.9-0.7-0.90.32.65.58.19.910.59.87.74.81.9-0.2-1-0.31.64.47.39.610.7

Tide / Current Tables for Wood Island Harbor, Maine
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Wood Island Harbor
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Thu -- 04:40 AM EDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:00 AM EDT     10.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     10.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.96.53.60.9-0.6-0.90.22.55.489.710.49.77.74.81.9-0.2-1-0.41.54.37.29.410.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.