Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glide, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:14PM Monday January 22, 2018 4:24 AM PST (12:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 217 Am Pst Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A break between systems is expected today. Winds will be relatively calm, but seas will remain steep and hazardous to small craft through tonight. The next system will affect the waters early Tuesday morning, bringing another round of gales and very steep and hazardous seas through Wednesday morning. Seas will remain elevated through the week with additional periods of increased winds expected through Thursday morning. Conditions may briefly improve Friday before the next front moves Friday evening.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glide, OR
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location: 43.52, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221114
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
314 am pst Mon jan 22 2018

Short term Through Wednesday... Snow showers continue to produce
accumulations in portions of siskiyou county this morning. In
fact, from webcams it looks pretty snowy around snowman summit,
and while it doesn't look like it's sticking to i-5 that much,
it's snowing from dunsmuir up through mt. Shasta. High resolution
guidance shows this continuing through mid morning but gradually
tapering off. Another inch or two of snow is possible through
dawn, then impacts will diminish. As a result, the winter weather
advisory was extended through 10 am for these locations. It is
still also snowing occasionally around mt. Ashland and in the
cascades. Accumulations should generally be light and diminish as
the airmass dries and upper forcing moves off to our east today.

The rest of us in the lower elevations will see a couple of
showers roaming around this morning, but those will decrease as
well. The exception will be along the coast where onshore flow
will keep shower potential going through today.

We'll see a short break tonight into early Tuesday, but the next
front will already be knocking on the door by daylight Tuesday.

This front doesn't look quite as strong as the last one, but it
does look more "traditional" in that the flow aloft is more
southerly and thus is more supportive of strong winds in the usual
areas like shasta valley and east side. This one isn't a slam
dunk for winds, but there is certainly enough potential to warrant
a high wind watch in the usual spots, and one has already been
issued.

The front will be much more slow moving than its predecessor, and
thus it will be much wetter. This is the first front in a while
that looks like a true "atmospheric river." current forecast
rainfall amounts are 3-6 inches along the south coast and coastal
mountains, 1-2 inches in the cascades and siskiyous, up to an
inch in interior west side valleys, and 0.25 to 0.50 inch on the
east side. Snow levels will rise to around 5000 feet as warm
southerly flow develops, but above this elevation, these copious
precipitation amounts will be snow. As such, a winter storm watch
was issued for the cascades and siskiyous. We could easily see a
foot of snow from crater lake down to mt. Ashland, which is not
great news for travelers, but it is to would-be skiers. This setup
also looks to favor the mt. Shasta area this time. Flow aloft is
much more southerly, precipitation should be heavy, and
thermodynamics are favorable. We held off on issuing a winter
storm watch for siskiyou county to avoid confusion with the
current advisory, but one could be forthcoming when the advisory
expires later this morning. -wright

Long term Thu, jan 25th through Sunday night, jan 29th, 2018...

the long term period begins with an anomalously cold trough of low
pressure extending from southern alaska southward to southern
california along the west coast. GEFS 500mb geopotential heights
begin the period at 537 decameters, which equates to a normalized
anomaly of -1.75 to -2 standard deviations. Thus, it will be colder
than normal across the forecast area with showers and low snow
levels expected. Model guidance is well agreed on showers from along
and near the cascades westward during the day on Thursday,
diminishing Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow levels are
expected to generally be between 1500 and 2500 feet, + - 500 feet.

Therefore, we'll be on the lookout for snowfall on the lower passes
such as jacksonville hill and the sexton summits. Snow will also be
possible on or near the valley floors of the rogue and illinois
valleys. Have adjusted snow levels Thursday morning through Friday
morning to account for some expectation of the local effect of lower
snow levels in convective SW flow over and near the illinois valley
versus the rogue valley. Given the showery pattern, current
expectations are that accumulations in the valleys will be generally
light, but could be locally significant in locations such as hayes
hill in the illinois valley. For the relatively parched downhill ski
areas, models are indicating 0.25" to 0.75" of water equivalent at
mount ashland and 0.50" to 1.0" at mount shasta Wednesday night
through Friday morning. Due to the cold air mass snow amounts are
expected to be a fluffy 5-10 additional inches at mount ashland and
6-12 additional inches on mount shasta.

Friday the trough begins to lift out to the northeast as high
pressure begins to build in from the southwest. However, due to
replacement of a colder air mass by a warmer one, we anticipate
precipitation could linger Friday into Saturday, especially over nw
sections of the forecast area, with snow levels remaining below 5500
feet.

Anomalously high amplitude high pressure is then expected to move
through Saturday night through Monday, followed by another fairly
strong trough of low pressure arriving from the gulf of alaska
Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough is not as deep as recent ones on
the gefs, but should be enough to bring us a bit more rain and some
freshening of the mountain snowpack. It is notable that both the 12z
ecmwf and 18z GFS do indicate the trough to be deeper colder than
does the GEFS mean, so this means there is uncertainty related to
the amplitude and resultant southern periphery of this trough. Btl

Aviation 22 06z TAF cycle... The front has moved through the
region and we're now watching showers on radar. CIGS are quite high
in the majority of areas around 3500 feet, so mountain obscuration
is likely over the cascades during the overnight hours. There
appears to be some clearing to the west, so the valleys are expected
to see some low level MVFR stratus at times and perhaps some
visibility reductions.

Also added snow showers near klamath falls and those can reduce
visibilities down to 2-3 miles when the move over head. Those
should be pretty isolated through the next 6 hours.

Not expecting fog to force ifr rules because the low level
instability increases during the overnight hours with the colder air
moving in aloft.

As for Monday, look forVFR conditions to prevail with just a few
cumulus clouds forming in the cold and unstable airmass.

-smith

Marine Updated 200 am pst Monday 22 jan 2018... A break
between systems is expected today. Winds will be relatively calm,
but seas will remain steep and hazardous to small craft through
tonight. The next system will affect the waters early Tuesday
morning. This front is not as strong as the recent one on Sunday, so
only gales are expected. However, this front may stall and the
duration of strong winds may be longer than the Sunday system.

Currently it looks like winds will be just below gale force after
Wednesday morning, but are expected to remain increased through
Thursday morning.

Seas will build again late Tuesday morning becoming very steep and
hazardous 14 to 17 feet at 10 to 11 seconds through Wednesday
morning. Seas will remain elevated through much of the week, peaking
again at 19 to 20 feet on Thursday. Conditions may briefly improve
Friday before the next front moves through the waters Friday
evening. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening for orz030-031.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening above 5000 feet in the for orz027-028.

Ca... High wind watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for caz081.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst this morning for
caz082-083.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am pst Wednesday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am pst Wednesday
for pzz350-356.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 81 mi54 min SE 2.9 G 8 52°F1024.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR35 mi31 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F41°F96%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmSE5S3
1 day agoCalmSE5SE4CalmCalmS3SE3CalmSE8S6S11S6S5S7SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S55
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5SW4S6SW6SW6SW5CalmE3S4SE4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmSE4S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Mon -- 04:49 AM PST     6.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM PST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:54 PM PST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.74.15.36.16.35.95432.42.22.63.54.55.35.85.75.14.12.91.81.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:43 AM PST     6.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM PST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:44 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:08 PM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:44 PM PST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.94.35.56.26.35.9543.12.52.42.83.74.65.45.85.64.93.92.81.81.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.