Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 4:51 AM   Moonset 7:47 PM

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FXUS65 KPIH 070905 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 305 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

SHORT TERM
Today and Wednesday Another cold windy day is expected across eastern Idaho today. Highs will likely top out only in the 40s today for most, although some lower 50s may be realized in parts of the Snake Plain. Things are looking up however as a drastic warm-up is expected beyond today.
Before we get there though, we'll have more clouds, precip and wind to contend with today. A Wind Advisory continues until later this evening. As expected, winds have dipped below criteria this morning but should pick back up over the next few hours and last throughout the day. Precipitation today will be much more showery in nature compared to the past few days but the highest PoPs will be across the eastern highlands. Could see some rumbles of thunder there as well but this isn't likely to be the norm. Some additional light accumulations of snow will be possible in the eastern highlands and to a lesser extent into the central mountains. Another frost advisory or freeze warning will be possible tonight and into Wed AM as temperatures will remain below normal.

There area will remain in a cold N/NE flow aloft tomorrow but the influence of the upper low will start to diminish somewhat and throughout the day, we'll see signs of the weather pattern starting to transition. Temps will stay well below normal but will be warmer than Tuesday while skies slowly start to clear out a bit from west to east. Some high elevation PoPs will linger in the forecast on Wednesday but we'll have to wait until Thu before things noticeably improve going forward. McKaughan

LONG TERM
Thu through Mon An upper level ridge-trough pattern, rotated 90 degrees clock- wise sits over the Great Basin at the start. This has a dry, and potentially cool east to northeasterly airflow. The trough eventually becomes a close low over the southwestern states, with more northerly airflow over the forecast area. It is weak flow and continued dry by Fri. On Sun, the close low edges slowly northward and may bring instability showers and thunderstorm on Mother's Day. On Mon, a trough from the coast moves through this pattern and breaks it up, bringing showers and thunderstorms again. The movement of the Sun low and the Mon trough are by no means certain; the clusters indicate an extremely weak pattern that sometimes has a discernible trough, sometimes no.

Temperature-wise, the clear skies and subsidence provides strong warming with temperatures around climatic normals Thu night/Fri, then continued warming to Sun with the onset of moisture and then the approaching trough. All this does is level off the warm-up starting Sunday, when Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley highs will be middle 70s to around 80. Breezy northeast wind on Thu subsides during the middle period, then a west to southwest breezy wind kicks in for Sun/Mon during the afternoons.
Messick



AVIATION
VFR conditions in place across the area this morning although some occasional lower CIGs may briefly impact terminals in and around showers this morning. Precipitation today will be more showery in nature so will maintain VCSH wording for much of the period given the "hit-or-miss" nature of things. Winds remain the biggest impact to aviation with another breezy day anticipated. KBYI and KPIH will be the windiest locations but no one will be spared from winds gusting 20+ kts throughout much of the daylight hours today, closer to 40 kts at BYI and PIH though. Things slowly begin to improve as we move into Wednesday with winds lessening and CIGs slowly improving and precip diminishing a bit. McKaughan

HYDROLOGY
Area rivers remain elevated today, with the Portneuf and Blackfoot Rivers remaining the trouble spots of the day with Flood Warnings continuing. Cool temperatures and ongoing periods of showers (snow at higher elevations) will continue to slightly mitigate snowmelt runoff. Periods of showers will continue to provide additional water into the basins, mainly snow at mid slope and higher elevations. Blackfoot River levels look to stay at Minor Flood for the foreseeable future. Portneuf forecast trends continue to produce a temporary nudge back close to the low-end Moderate Flood category, then drop back into persistent Minor Flood for several days. The cold temperatures and consistent unsettled conditions should keep East Idaho waterways high, fast and cold through the week. DMH

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-054>057.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.

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