Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:55 AM   Moonset 1:09 PM

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FXUS65 KPIH 021011 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 411 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
Rinse and repeat for the forecast with another cold day featuring scattered rain and snow showers as yet another shortwave trough rotates around a parent low in the nrn Plains near the Canadian border and crosses SE Idaho. Temps running just a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday will allow snow levels to run 5,000 to 5,500 feet, although warmest temp readings will still hold in the mid-40s to low-50s. All-in-all, we're trending into slightly less wind and slightly lower potential for snowfall to briefly accumulate as it did yesterday. Fri we're noticing a trend toward a drier forecast as the shortwave moves east and brief ridging moves in, which might grant most of the region a dry day with highs nudging into the upper 40s to upper 50s. All of this sets the stage for a significantly warmer day Sat...a true taste of spring returning...but it will be short-lived as yet another low pressure system takes aim at the region. More on Saturday and beyond below.
Meanwhile, AM low temps at or below freezing will likely continue to necessitate FREEZE WARNINGS or FROST ADVISORIES right through Sat AM, so continue to be mindful of the need to protect early season gardens and sensitive vegetation. 01

LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
Models and ensemble clusters are in much better agreement this morning. Closed low swings through PacNW into the northern Great Basin Saturday, which shifts northeast but leaves broad trough across the western states through the remainder of the forecast period. Saturday should be warm but with gusty south winds as warm front lifts through the region. Precipitation onset arrives generally afternoon, which should be rain most areas. Cold front passage occurs late Saturday night or early Sunday. Bulk of precipitation associated with this feature falls Sunday into Monday. Center of upper low lifts out of the region Monday, but region remains unsettled under the influence of lingering broad trough. Cool temperatures continue through the week with periods of precipitation and breezy to windy conditions. DMH

AVIATION
Relative break in the pattern early today as weak shallow ridge moves in behind departing shortwave feature. Mainly VFR conditions are expected early today, though there are a few pockets of likely MVFR CIGS per satellite imagery. Next region of high cloud cover beginning to spill into East Idaho this morning, preceding next batch of precipitation this afternoon and overnight.
Temperatures rebound enough for VFR -SHRA this afternoon, but as temperatures cool this evening, expect CIGS to lower to MVFR -SHSN for the overnight. DMH

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.

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