Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yoncalla, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:49PM Friday November 16, 2018 6:28 PM PST (02:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 232 Pm Pst Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure and a trough of low pressure near the coast will both weaken Saturday. Gusty north winds and choppy wind driven seas will persist until then, mostly south of cape blanco. Conditions will improve Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with relatively light south winds and seas persisting into Tuesday. A weak front will move onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yoncalla, OR
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location: 43.54, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 162340
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
339 pm pst Fri nov 16 2018
the long term section has been updated...

Short term Tonight through Monday night... A quiet weather
pattern will continue through Monday night. Cold overnight
temperatures and warm daytime temperatures will continue through
early next week, and a stagnant air mass is expected to degrade
air quality at times for most valleys across the forecast area.

An upper ridge axis will sit just offshore through tonight, while a
weak disturbance moves by east of the cascades under northwesterly
flow. This means increasing clouds east of the cascades and a
period of increased easterly winds for areas along and east of the
cascades, and gusty east to southeast winds in the foothills west
of the cascades. These east winds will peak Saturday and Saturday
night.

For some areas, these breezes will interrupt the stagnant air mass
and allow for some increasing mixing and improved air quality. For
other areas, mainly valleys west of the cascades, poor mixing will
continue. Although we expect this brief period of improved mixing in
some areas, we've decided to maintain the air stagnation advisory at
npwmfr through Monday night because upper ridging will re-establish
itself over the area by Sunday, and mixing will become poor in most
places again.

Through early next week, patchy fog will continue to be possible in
the umpqua basin. Even though roseburg has recently experienced low
clouds instead of low visibility, enough MOS guidance shows fog that
we thought we should maintain fog in the forecast.

One nuance to the forecast involves the massive amount of smoke over
california. Deep layer winds will begin to shift toward a more
southerly direction on Sunday, and we expect some smoke and haze to
push into the forecast area as we move into next week. Air quality
could be diminished in siskiyou and modoc counties, but as one moves
across into oregon (especially west of the cascades), this situation
usually results in just haze aloft for locations like medford and
roseburg.

A cold front and increasing southwest winds are expected to mix up
the air mass some by Tuesday, so that's when our air stagnation
advisory expires. We'll look at this closely in future days, and we
may have to extend this for areas west of the cascades if increasing
winds don't materialize. We're more confident about increasing winds
and improved mixing east of the cascades on Tuesday. Confidence is
high in a significant pattern change from the middle of next week
onward, with rounds of precipitation and lowering snow levels.

Long term Tuesday, nov 20th through Friday night, nov 24th...

confidence has increased significantly in the last 24 hours in the
timing of a major pattern change expected to occur across the
forecast area during this long term time period. The unusual, record
dry november conditions currently being experienced will be replaced
by a series of frontal systems that will progress through the
forecast area Wednesday into next weekend.

Specifically, the GEFS has trended toward the ECMWF in bringing a
frontal system to the coast early Wednesday morning. The GFS and
the GEFS mean did not even show a front reaching the coast at all
on Wednesday at this time yesterday. Low pressure is forecast to
develop along the front west of the northern california coast
Wednesday. The ECMWF indicates this will slow the inland
progression of the cold front Wednesday, while the GFS pushes it
inland faster on Wednesday. Both models do indicate the bulk of the
moisture and energy with this initial frontal system pushing into
northern california Wednesday. Therefore, both precipitation
probabilities and amounts are higher along and near the coast and
across NW california than elsewhere for Wednesday. Snow levels
are expected to be in the 5500 to 6500 foot range.

For thanksgiving day it now looks like we'll see precipitation
spread farther inland. Snow levels are expected to fall into the
4500-5500 foot range, which is still above the major mountain
passes, but low enough to affect travel over higher portions of the
oregon cascades. Both the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS show
significant precipitation of 1 to 2 inches to fall in just 6 hours
in portions of curry and siskiyou counties, so we'll need to keep an
eye on this weather system should those amounts pan out and or snow
levels drop any further in the mount shasta area.

Friday into next weekend two more frontal systems push into the area
with snow levels in the 3500 to 6000 foot range. Models continue to
indicate the focus of moisture with these frontal systems to be
across northern california, with a secondary focus along the coast.

Altogether, the GFS has been a bit colder and wetter than the ecmwf
in the last two primary model update cycles (since 00z last
evening), but it appears the models are now close enough that they
will likely fluctuate back and forth as to which is the coldest and
wettest in future model cycles. All in all, it should be noted that
some of the wetter GFS solutions in the last 2 model cycles would
bring impacting wind and rainfall to portions of the forecast area,
so stay tuned for possible wind, rain, and snow headlines as we go
into the thanksgiving holiday and, especially the following weekend.

-lutz

Aviation For the 16 18z tafs... Along the coast and over the
coastal waters...VFR condition will prevail initially, but areas of
ifr CIGS vsbys in low clouds and fog will develop along the coast
late night, then clear toVFR by Saturday afternoon. Over the umpqua
basin... Areas of MVFR ifr CIGS vsbys in low clouds and fog will
clear toVFR this afternoon, but the lower conditions will return
late tonight. The lower conditions will clear toVFR again by
Saturday afternoon. Over the remainder of the area...VFR conditions
will prevail through Saturday, although there may be some slightly
reduced visibilities due to haze and smoke.

Marine Updated 200 pm pst Friday 16 november 2018... Offshore high
pressure and a trough of low pressure near the coast will both
weaken Saturday. Gusty north winds and choppy wind driven seas will
persist until then, mostly south of CAPE blanco. Conditions will
improve Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with relatively light south
winds and seas persisting into Tuesday. A weak front will move
onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A stronger front may move in
Wednesday night into Thursday, and heavy west swell may also develop
Thursday.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz024>031.

Air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst Tuesday for orz023.

Air stagnation advisory from 4 pm Saturday to 4 am pst Tuesday
for orz021.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters...

- small craft advisory until 1 pm pst Saturday for pzz356-376.

- small craft advisory until 1 pm pst Saturday for pzz350-370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 54 mi52 min NNE 9.9 G 15 50°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR21 mi35 minN 010.00 miOvercast49°F43°F80%1020 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmSE3S3CalmNW5CalmSE5SE5Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmN4N6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3N7SW3CalmN7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:00 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 AM PST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM PST     5.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:44 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM PST     4.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.21.11.52.33.34.35.15.65.75.34.73.93.32.82.83.13.64.34.84.94.74.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:00 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:22 AM PST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM PST     5.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:29 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:36 PM PST     4.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.11.21.72.53.64.65.35.75.65.24.53.73.12.82.83.23.84.44.94.94.643.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.