Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yoncalla, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:02 AM PDT (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 830 Pm Pdt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough near the coast will persist into Saturday. As a result, gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas will also persist into Saturday. A weak front will move through Sunday and winds and seas will subside at that time. However, the offshore high pressure and thermal trough will return Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the strong north winds and choppy seas will return at that time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yoncalla, OR
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location: 43.54, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 230336
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
836 pm pdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term An upper low is located to the south, centered over
southern california and southern nevada. This low will gradually
shift northward tonight into Thursday. The forecast remains on
track with isolated to scattered showers over central and eastern
portions of the CWA this evening, mainly from the western slopes
of the cascades eastward. Overnight into Thursday morning, expect
showers to decrease in coverage. Some continued chances for
showers are expected though, mainly along the cascades,
siskiyous, across eastern douglas county as well as across eastern
portions of the area over lake and modoc counties. A marine layer
is in place at the coast and low clouds and drizzle are expected
this evening though Thursday morning along the coast from gold
beach northward and inland across coos and northeast douglas
counties. Breezy to gusty north winds over the area will diminish
tonight then redevelop Thursday afternoon.

For Thursday afternoon, models show some wrap around moisture
moving into the area from the northeast. With this flow and weak
instability, expect some isolated showers to develop mainly across
the cascades and higher terrain east of the cascades. Models
continue to show weak instability near and along the cascades and
expect a slight chance for thunderstorms in this area Thursday
afternoon. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures across inland
areas on Thursday with highs in the mid 70s for western valleys
and in the mid 60s for valleys east of the cascades.

Aviation For the 23 00z tafs... Along the coast and over the
coastal waters... Widespread ifr CIGS will persist through Thursday
evening with patchy drizzle and fog, except south of CAPE blanco and
5-10 miles offshore whereVFR conditions will prevail. Inland areas
west of the cascades...VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday
evening, except for areas of late night into morning MVFR cigs,
mostly over the umpqua basin. Isolated rain showers will end
Wednesday night. From the cascades east...VFR conditions will
prevail through Thursday evening, but there will be scattered
showers and isolated afternoon evening thunderstorms with some
obscuration of higher terrain.

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Wednesday 22 may 2019... Offshore high
pressure coastal thermal trough pattern will continue to strengthen
through tonight, producing gusty north winds with steep to very
steep wind-driven and fresh swell dominated seas. Winds will
approach, but are not expected to exceed, gale force south of gold
beach this evening and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Seas
will be very steep and hazardous over a larger area from around cape
blanco south and beyond 5 nm of the coast. The thermal trough will
move inland Sunday, and winds and seas will diminish at that time.

However, the offshore high pressure and thermal trough will return
Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the strong north winds and choppy
seas will return at that time.

Prev discussion issued 244 pm pdt Wed may 22 2019
short term... Today through Saturday... The warming and drying trend
has begun. Current temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
24 hours ago, and observed precipitation today is only spotty and
generally just a few hundredths of an inch. Showers are focused
east of the cascades, closer to the upper low that's departed to
the east and is currently over southern nevada. One lightning
strikes has been observed over eastern siskiyou county, but we
don't expect much in the way of lightning because instability is
limited. Winds are gusting to 25 mph in much of the forecast area
this afternoon. Winds should diminish this evening and become
gusty again tomorrow. High resolution model output brings a chance
of showers this evening to some west side valleys as showers over
the cascades are transported southwest by deep north-northeast
flow. In addition, stable low clouds along the coast will shift
inland overnight and could bring some light drizzle to coast and
coastal valleys.

Tomorrow, some additional warming and drying is expected as the
exiting low loses influence over the forecast area. Still, there is
a slight chance of showers along and east of the cascades Thursday
afternoon. Given that we've had a lightning strike today, and we
expect similar to slightly more unstable conditions over the
cascades tomorrow, we've kept a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the cascades Thursday afternoon.

On Friday we'll begin to feel in the influence of an approaching
upper low moving south from washington. The first areas affected
will be east of the cascades with increasing chances for showers
there. East of the cascades looks dry on Friday. Models suggest more
of the same Saturday afternoon, though shower chances creep into
areas west of the cascades late Saturday as the low moves overhead.

With all that said, there is a surprising amount of spread amongst
ensemble members in terms of where the upper low center will be
Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we maintain low confidence
for Saturday's precipitation forecast. Our current forecast reflects
the national blend of models (nbm) solution but is subject to change
as ensemble members start to agree more on the evolution of the
low. Keene
long term... Sunday through Wednesday... Not much has
changed with the overall pattern through the holiday weekend.

General troughing will remain over the area which means we could be
dealing with a chance of showers and afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms Sunday through memorial day for most inland locations.

There's been fairly good agreement among the models the past couple
of runs. However the latest ECMWF now shows a stronger upper low
moving south along the oregon coast and has enough over water
trajectory to produce a significant amount of moisture for this time
of the year on Sunday. The GFS and canadian have stayed the course
and show a weaker upper low near or over the area which would result
in a fair amount of dry time in the morning, especially west of the
cascades followed by increasing showers in the afternoon with
isolated thunderstorms possible. It remains to be seen if the latest
ecmwf solution is a one hit wonder or will it revert back to a
solution that's more in line with the GFS canadian. For this reason
and high spread among some of the ensemble members, have decided not
to increase pops much on Sunday, but watch for updates on this
should future runs continue to show the wetter solution.

The upper low is expected to set up southeast of our area Monday and
there is concern we could be caught up in some wraparound moisture.

It this turns out to be the case, then we'll have a higher chance
for showers pretty much all day with the highest chance for showers
in the afternoon and evening. The individual ensemble members show a
pretty good spread with the location of the upper low. Confidence is
higher we'll have frequent showers east of the cascades, but lower
for shower coverage west of the cascades, especially Monday morning.

The upper should finally move far enough away where we could end up
with drier and milder conditions next Tuesday. Wednesday also looks
mostly dry and milder, although isolated showers are possible in the
afternoon east of the cascades. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Saturday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Saturday for
pzz356-370-376.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 54 mi86 min N 5.1 G 9.9 55°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR21 mi69 minN 710.00 miOvercast57°F48°F72%1017.6 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5NE5CalmN6N64NW7NW7N8NW8N7NW8
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1 day agoS3SE5Calm4CalmSE3S33S5S5S5SW46
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE6SW6Calm3S7CalmSW7SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Thu -- 12:31 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 AM PDT     6.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:44 AM PDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:37 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM PDT     2.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.64.65.465.95.34.32.91.60.4-0.3-0.4012.23.54.4554.643.32.8

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
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Thu -- 12:31 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 AM PDT     6.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:29 AM PDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM PDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:32 PM PDT     2.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.84.85.665.85.142.61.20.2-0.4-0.40.21.32.63.74.6554.53.83.12.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.