Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yoncalla, OR

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Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:07PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 8:51 AM PDT (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 1:01AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 835 Am Pdt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively light winds and seas will prevail through Thursday morning. The thermal trough will strengthen Thursday afternoon, bringing stronger north winds and choppy wind driven seas, mostly from cape blanco south. The thermal trough will weaken Saturday night, and winds and seas will diminish at that time.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yoncalla, OR
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location: 43.54, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 211116
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
403 am pdt Tue aug 21 2018
updated fire weather discussion.

Discussion
A few minor changes to the forecast this morning. First and
foremost we decided to lower temperatures west of the cascades
Tuesday. Even though the flow is more easterly and off shore
compared to yesterday, not expecting it to exceed 100 degrees in
the umpqua valley. Smoke is the primary reason for this, but the
offshore flow isn't as strong as we would like to see in the
afternoon hours. Most areas will see temperatures in the upper
90's west of the cascades.

As for thunderstorms, some high resolution guidance is still
initiating convection in modoc county and areas east of modoc
county. Models suggest some potential instability with only 200 to
300 j kg of cape. However, this is enough to produce a handful of
strikes that are fully capable of starting new fires. Hence, the
red flag warning looks good for this forecast cycle. Read the
discussion below for more information on the red flag warning.

Beyond today, we're watching the upcoming cool down towards the
end of next week. Ensemble data shows troughing in the pacific
northwest. This is a good thing temperature wise, but winds will
likely pick up cause issues with existing and new fires. Right
now the forecast is calling for highs in the upper 80's west of
the cascades late this weekend into next week.

-smith

Aviation For the 21 06z tafs... Ifr lifr fog and stratus will
prevail along the coast overnight until around 15z Tuesday morning.

Models are still showing some stronger NE offshore winds that may
try to scour out the stratus from some areas earlier than 15z, but
this is when we are currently breaking it out at north bend. Even if
the stratus fog leaves early, wildfire smoke should still cause MVFR
visibility through Tuesday. We do expect clearing of the stratus in
most areas north of gold beach Tuesday, but north winds will reverse
to southerly and stratus will surge northward again over the coastal
waters adjacent coastline Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Inland, wildfire smoke in most areas will limit visibility
to MVFR, and occasionally to ifr. However, solid ifr lifr visibility
can be expected immediately downwind of the most active wildfires.

Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight, but if one were to occur, it'd
be east of the cascades. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Tuesday
across SE sections of the area, including modoc and southern lake
counties.

-spilde

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Tuesday 21 august 2018... The thermal
trough over the area the last couple of days will weaken and shift
inland today. North winds and steep seas, mainly from CAPE blanco
southward and beyond 8 nm from shore north of CAPE blanco will
gradually subside. Areas of wildfire smoke will persist and bring
haze and minor visibility reductions aside from the normal
reductions associated with the marine layer.

A wind reversal to southerly will occur today into tonight,
especially inside 40 nm from shore. This will occur first near
brookings, then surge up the coast late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

With the south winds, expect fog stratus to develop. These
conditions will linger Wednesday, but overall, expect calmer seas
and sub-advisory winds.

Beginning Thursday, another thermal trough will develop resulting in
a return of north winds. Late Thursday and Friday, the thermal
trough will strengthen likely bringing another round of gusty north
winds and steep seas, highest south of CAPE blanco. -cc

Fire weather Updated 300 am pdt Tuesday 21 august 2018... In
addition to local wildfire smoke sources, substantial smoke
continues to drift southward over the area from wildfires to our
north from northern oregon, washington, and british columbia. From
the siskiyous southward, and across portions of modoc county,
however, there's less smoke, which is allowing fires to burn more
freely.

A weak trough over eastern portions of the area combined with some
mid level moisture is expected to bring a slight risk for showers
and thunderstorms to eastern portions of the area today through this
evening. Models continue to show that thunderstorms will be limited
to far southeast klamath, far eastern siskiyou, lake and modoc
counties this morning into Tuesday evening. The greatest model
agreement, especially among our standard model suite, as well as the
convective allowing models, is for an area of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms to develop over modoc county this afternoon
and evening. However, there is also a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms this morning. Due to limited fire fighting resources
available in the modoc due to the ongoing stone fire there, as well
as increased confidence in a mix of wet and dry storms there, a red
flag warning has been issued for lightning for fwz 285.

Otherwise, there are limited concerns for wind and rh early this
morning, and then again Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. There
will be enhanced east wind along and just west of the oregon cascade
crest with moderate rh recoveries this morning. Then, the next two
afternoons, expect low rhs and breezy winds in west side valleys.

A cooler trend is expected for later this week into early next week
as an upper trough deepens over the region. There is also some
possibility of light rainfall for portions of the area west of the
cascades Sunday night into Monday. -cc

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... Red flag warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for caz285.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt early this morning for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am pdt this
morning for pzz356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 54 mi75 min ESE 1 G 1.9 55°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Roseburg Regional Airport, OR21 mi58 minN 02.50 miFair with Haze59°F54°F83%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from RBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW33CalmCalm3N7N4N7N8N8NW3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS6NE74N4N6
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Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Tue -- 02:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:06 AM PDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM PDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM PDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:42 PM PDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.82.61.50.70.40.61.32.23.24.14.64.74.43.83.22.72.52.83.54.45.35.96

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM PDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:39 AM PDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM PDT     2.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM PDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.93.82.61.50.80.50.81.52.53.54.34.84.94.63.93.32.82.73.13.84.75.66.16.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.