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FXUS61 KBTV 070228 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1028 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Beautiful weather conditions is expected. After a foggy and cool morning tomorrow, temperatures will rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s again under clear, blue skies. By Wednesday, rain chances will return to the forecast with a trend towards cool temperatures struggling to rise above 60 over the weekend.
Friday appears most likely to be the wettest day. Temperatures will begin to moderate at the start of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1025 PM EDT Monday...Main focus of this update was to refine the cloud cover to depict the layer of mid to high cirrus clouds across most of the forecast area moving east to west.
Model trends indicate these clouds will gradually progress south and east throughout the night tonight, clearing skies as expected by early Tuesday morning. While hourly temperatures are a bit slower to fall than anticipated, we are still expecting lows in the 40s for most with a few cold spots reaching into the 30s. As clouds clear, patchy radiation fog in the valleys continues to look likely. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...With moisture out of the region, we're left with fair weather cumulus and thin cirrus. Observed temperatures are in the 60s to lower 70s with a light breeze out there. Truly a gorgeous spring day. Efficient cooling is expected underneath surface high pressure and ample mid-level dry air. In fact, parts of Ontario Province were below freezing last night. With that, it seems highly likely the Adirondack Airport at Saranac Lake hits 32 tonight. Elsewhere, mainly upper 30s to mid 40s is expected with upper 40s near Lake Champlain.
There's plenty of ground moisture available, and this should produce valley fog across climo favored spots.

Another great weather day should unfold tomorrow. Temperatures should be a couple degrees warmer compared to today due to somewhat drier air in place. There will be some more wind tomorrow afternoon out of the northwest, but nothing that should exceed 15 mph. Overnight, a compact surface low will approach the region with rain chances increasing from the southwest.
Initially, skies will be partly cloudy, and we could observe brief radiational cooling before clouds and southeast flow develop ahead of the low and precipitation. Temperatures will likely be in the 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 256 PM EDT Monday...On Wednesday morning, the omega block breaks down, allowing for a piece of shortwave energy from a huge meandering upper level closed upper low out west to approach our region. PWATs rise from 0.4 to 1.1 inches, which is equivalent to the 25th and 90th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site. Expect shower coverage to become more widespread by Wednesday morning. Then the upper level pattern gets a little more complicated. Models show that upper low over Newfoundland retrograding into New Hampshire/Maine. As it interacts with the aforementioned relatively weak shortwave energy from out west, there are some signals it becomes a neutrally to even slightly negatively tilted H5 trough. Looking at the 250mb level, there is a small window parts of New England gets into the favorable left exit region of an anomalously strong 110 kt jet. A belt of 7 to 7.5C/km mid-level lapse rates cross the area around mid day into the afternoon hours from west to east.

While the best chance for organized convection and stronger storms should remain south of our CWA, CAMs forecast soundings (namely the 12z NAM 3km since we are just getting into the CAM time range for Wednesday afternoon) hint at the potential for some marginally severe storms capable of isolated large hail and perhaps some wet downburst across the southern zones of our CWA The main limiting factors include the marginal and conditional surface-based instability and dew points in the low to mid 50s. But with surface to 6km shear in the 40-50 kt range as well as 0-1km storm relative helicity of over 100 m2/s2, an isolated strong to perhaps severe storm cannot be totally ruled out. Nonetheless, given the conditional nature of the storms, have kept with the mention of slight chance of thunderstorms.
The key take home message at this time remains to monitor the forecast for Wednesday afternoon if you have outdoor plans.
Heading into overnight Wednesday, any thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours will taper off and mainly dry conditions should prevail after midnight. Given plenty of moisture trapped in the boundary layer up to 750mb, patchy fog is possible in sheltered locations overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 256 PM EDT Monday...We briefly get into zonal flow on Thursday but there remains plenty of moisture trapped under an inversion at the 850-700mb level and cool light northerly or northeasterly flow below 925mb level owing to a weak surface low off the New England coast. So expect isolated to scattered showers and plenty of clouds on Thursday, although no washouts are expected. There remains the possibility for breaks in sunshine and where they do occur, current forecast daytime highs would be a tad too cool. Heading into Friday, global guidance shows a sub-550mb upper low shifting east from the Ohio River valley into the interior Atlantic seaboard. There remains considerable differences in the evolution of the upper low and how far south it digs. At this time, most of the ensemble members have it too far south for any organized convection, although another round of garden variety thunderstorms is certainly on the table for Friday. What we can be currently more confident is the potential for anomalously cool temperatures to prevail across North Country Friday afternoon into at least the first part of the weekend. The sub-550mb upper low moves overhead with unseasonably cold temperatures aloft. For perspective, the sub-freezing 850mb temperatures late Friday into Saturday would be around the 10th percentile of SPC sounding climatology for the Albany, NY upper air site for middle of May. So hikers could certainly encounter snow showers for the High Peaks of the Adirondacks above 4500 ft elevation Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Highs on Friday or Saturday could struggle to get out of the 50s for the valleys and 40s in the higher elevation. For reference, typical highs for North Country are in around 62 to 68, so a day with highs around 10-15F below normal is on tap.
Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors below normal temperatures for our region. As for rainfall and hydrologic considerations, while the most aggressive members of the Model-Based Ensemble Forecast System (MMEFS) guidance are hinting at a non-zero chance of river flooding in the Friday/Saturday time frame, the consensus of members is for area rivers to rise but remain below action stage. Typically flashy basins such as East Branch of the Ausable River (ASFN6) could experience sharp water level rises late Friday into Saturday but remain below action stage or bankfull. The probability of widespread convection, which is required to drive the rainfall rates for flooding to be a concern, is extremely low and mainly confined to the south of our CWA given the unseasonably cool regime as depicted by the upper level pattern. Therefore, the rainfall is expected to be mainly showery and manageable in nature. As for a sneak peek into the weekend, after an anomalously cool start to Saturday, a brief period of drier and warmer conditions are possible for at least parts of the weekend before a deeper and broader 540mb upper low anchors itself somewhere across the eastern U.S. For warm weather lovers, unfortunately the odds do favor an extended period of cooler weather but it does look like severe weather potential remains negligible to nil.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...Clouds will decrease through the overnight period. Mostly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, outside nighttime fog. West to northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots trend light and variable or terrain driven after 03z. Fog appears likely across favorable river valleys impacting SLK, MPV and EFK between 08z and 14z, with lower chances at other terminals with no explicit mentions noted at this time. Beyond 12z, mainly clear skies prevail with north to northwest winds steadily increasing at 5 to 8 knots. Some clouds will develop again during the daytime hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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