Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM   Moonset 12:00 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 020140 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 940 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact, precipitation chances don't increase again until Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
UPDATE...As of 930 PM EDT, bands of mid level clouds continue tracking eastward for areas mainly north/west of the Capital Region. These clouds and isolated upstream showers/sprinkles are in association with developing mid level warm advection ahead of potent shortwave located north of the Great Lakes.

Forcing will continue to increase overnight for areas mainly north of I-90, so expect periods of clouds to continue, along with isolated to scattered showers, mainly after midnight. A few showers could even extend as far south as the I-90 corridor closer to daybreak.

There is some mid level instability/steeper lapse rates noted on upstream soundings, and latest RAP13 suggests Showalter Indices dip as low as 0 to -2 C for areas north of I-90 closer to daybreak, so can not completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder.

Otherwise, low stratus continues to expand north and northwest into southern Litchfield County, and will likely continue to expand/develop northward overnight, possibly reaching portions of the Capital Region, and likely across the Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics. Some patchy fog could develop across some of these areas, as well as across portions of the upper Hudson Valley, especially should any breaks in the mid level clouds develop prior to midnight.

Otherwise, just some minor adjustments to ongoing forecast based on latest observations.

PREVIOUS [413 PM EDT]...Visible satellite shows primarily partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across the region this afternoon as dry air is ushered in with high pressure building to the south and west. A low pressure system has settled just north of Michigan this afternoon, extending an associated warm/borderline stationary boundary south and east through western New York and into the northern Mid-Atlantic.

The aforementioned boundary will continue to lift north and east through the region tonight as a true warm front as its parent low tracks through southern Canada and a potent shortwave rotates about its southern periphery. With the track of the low remaining displaced well to our north, the shortwave looks to cross the region north of Albany. As such, the divergent, right exit region of a jet max within the flow of the disturbance will intersect portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Upper-Hudson Valley, possibly leading to some scattered showers in these areas. Elsewhere, dry conditions will remain steady.

Clouds are anticipated to increase across much of the area tonight in response to the passage of the disturbance, so temperatures will fair on the mild side with primarily 50s and some low 40s in higher terrain regions.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upon the passage of the warm front and upper shortwave by tomorrow morning, the parent low will be slow to move away from our overhead, yielding some clouds lingering throughout the day tomorrow, especially for western New England. A weak cold front will swing through the region tomorrow afternoon as the low drifts south and east, but a swift reinforcement of mid-level dry air behind it will ensure another primarily dry day outside of some scattered showers in the Upper-Hudson Valley and portions of western New England. Anticipated breaks of sun, especially in valley areas will allow temperatures to moderate back to the 60s and 70s with some upper 50s expected above 1500 ft.

By tomorrow night, an upper-level ridge will be building in from the west. The amplification of this ridge through Friday will ensure a dry end of the work week with a continuation to above- normal temperatures. Highs Friday will primarily be in the upper 60s with pockets of low 60s at higher elevations and near 70 in valley areas after the cool boundary cools things off slightly.

The axis of the ridge will begin to shift eastward Friday night into Saturday morning as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. Showers look to begin as early as Saturday evening as a surface low tracks towards into the Ohio Valley. Showers will overspread the region from northwest to southeast as upper troughing also pushes eastward into the region. Highs Saturday will be similar to Friday with 60s expected across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level disturbance and surface boundary will be running into the ridge in place for Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, a period of rain showers and cloudy conditions look to occur for Sat night into Sunday (mainly early in the day, based on the latest operational runs). Have gone with fairly high POPs during this time period for the entire area (high chance to likely). Can't rule out some rumbles of thunder across southern areas too, although strong storms are not expected due to limited instability and most of the thunderstorm activity being elevated. Temps will be in the 40s on Sat night and only in the 50s on Sunday with plenty of clouds around.

Some clearing should occur by Monday with ridging building back into the area for early next week. As a result, skies should be partly to mostly sunny for both Monday and Tuesday with valley highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another chance for showers may return for Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next system approaches from the west. Temps will continue to be fairly seasonable to somewhat above normal. Because of this, no frost/freeze issues are anticipated through the long term period for locations where the growing season has already begun.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure will track across northern New England tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front associated with this low will track southeastward across the TAF sites during Thursday morning.

VFR conditions through early this evening, then patchy ground fog may develop at KGFL between 03Z-06Z/Sat, producing intermittent MVFR/IFR Vsbys and Cigs. Also, some low clouds may expand north/northwest for KALB, KPSF and KPOU between 05Z-08Z/Thu, and may linger until 11Z-13Z/Thu before eroding.

Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the cold front late tonight, with best chance for a few showers occurring at KGFL between 06Z-11Z/Thu.

Once any low clouds/patchy fog burn off, expect VFR conditions for late Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

Light/variable winds this evening will trend into the southeast to south at 4-8 KT later this evening through daybreak, although will increase to 8-12 KT with a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible at KALB. Wind will shift into the southwest, then west as the cold front passes Thursday morning, with west to northwest winds increasing to 8-14 KT Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to or slightly in excess of 25 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:34 AM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

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