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FXUS61 KALY 160552 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 152 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers diminish this evening as a boundary to the north and west continues to weaken, while an approaching coastal low brings additional rain showers to the Mid- Hudson Valley and southern New England overnight. Showers continue through Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday. Additional chances for rain are expected this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Update
As of 1:45 AM EDT...The KENX radar shows little in the way of showers across the region this morning with just a few very light, possibly upslope-enhanced showers in the Berkshires.
However, an area of more widespread rain is located just south and east of Litchfield County so another round is expected there with the low looking to be retrograding just a hair towards the NJ coast. Made very minor adjustments to PoPs to account for both diminished showers in the Adirondacks along the weakening boundary and to follow latest trends with rain spreading into southern Litchfield County.

IR imagery shows some scattered breaks in cloud cover mainly in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Valleys which looks to be filling back in and the slight sinking of the aforementioned boundary meets the cloud shield of the coastal low. This has allowed for some mist/fog to form in these areas, so maintained fog in the weather forecast for the remainder of the overnight period.
Elsewhere, primarily low stratus ceilings remain.

Current temperatures range from the mid 50s to 60 with pockets of low 50s scattered throughout the area. Made very minor tweaks to reflect latest obs and trends for tonight's lows. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape
Additional details follow

Previous
Across our southern zones, showers likely persist through much of tonight, with a period of steadier rain possible across portions of far southeastern Dutchess and eastern Litchfield Counties due to isentropic lift/warm advection associated with a coastal front. There will be a sharp northern edge to the steadier precip, and the heaviest precip is expected to remain to our east through at least 12z Thursday. Also added some patchy fog to the grids tonight, which is possible should any breaks in the cloud shield occur. Most likely area for this looks to be along and north of I-90.

A weakening surface boundary remains draped across portions of the Northeast while a vertically-stacked upper low and incipient surface low continue to deepen as they track together to the northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A more solid shield of precipitation is impinging upon the southern New England coast as the coastal low approaches, which will reach into areas along and east of the Taconics in western New England overnight tonight. Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the period. Tonight, temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40 to upper 50s across the region. Light south to southeast winds this afternoon and evening turn out of the east to northeast about the northern flank of the approaching low.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Isolated to scattered showers continue on Thursday as the coastal low meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the highest chances for rain in areas nearest to the the low in northwestern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Other higher terrain areas across the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, and southern Vermont may also see enhanced shower coverage while the Mohawk, Schoharie, and Upper Hudson Valleys trend drier. Temperatures stay cooler to the south and east of Albany beneath more persistent cloud cover and rain shower activity, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, while relatively clearer skies to the north and west yield warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Dry weather returns to the region by Thursday night as higher pressure noses into the region as the coastal low exits to the east. Temperatures near seasonable norms are expected, with Thursday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Developing southeasterly flow on Friday will see temperatures rise above normal, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the region beneath partly cloudy skies. Another approaching upper shortwave will bring increased cloud cover ahead of rain shower late Friday night, with mild overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mid and upper level low/trough and surface low pressure system looks to track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas over the weekend. There is some uncertainty on whether or not a weak upper trough or upper ridge will be overhead on Saturday, which would impact rainfall chances. In addition, an inverted trough may be in place, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley.
Overall, the best rain chances Saturday look to be for areas west of the Hudson Valley. By Sunday, stronger upper level ridging will be in place with surface high pressure nosing in from Atlantic Canada.
This will bring increasingly drier weather for the second half of the weekend.

Continued upper ridging and surface high pressure in place will maintain dry conditions for early next week. The next best chance for rainfall arrives towards midweek as an upper-level trough and surface low pressure system and cold front approach from the west.

Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday then trend upward to the 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lows most nights will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...Conditions vary from LIFR to VFR at the TAF sites this morning. KGFL had LIFR/IFR fog/low stratus form with light winds and mostly clear skies. We used to a TEMPO group for LIFR/IFR fog until 09Z/THU. We have northerly winds increase for the fog to break up and VFR conditions returning prior to daybreak there with cigs at 4 kft AGL. Further south and east, expect VFR conditions with cigs at KALB in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range to lower MVFR with some spotty showers approaching around the coastal low near Long Island. MVFR levels at KPOU/KPSF will persist with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL with occasional showers developing.

The showers may increase prior to noon and we used PROB30 groups or went prevailing at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. We may have to add in some IFR stratus but we kept bases in the 1-2 kft AGL range. We maintained a VCSH group at KGFL with MVFR stratus. The showers will taper in the afternoon with cigs generally in the 1.5-3.0 kft AGL range until close to 00Z/FRI where some low VFR cigs are possible.

The winds will increase from the north to northeast at 5-10 KT this morning. The winds will generally be 8-12 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
The winds will decrease to 7 KT or less towards 23Z/THU from the northeast/east.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:31 AM EDT     5.05 feet High Tide
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Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:23 AM EDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

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