Monday, March27, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:17PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 6:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 272025
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
425 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

A cold front will approach from the eastern great lakes
region with cloudy and mild conditions ahead of the boundary
tonight. Scattered showers will accompany the front with a weak
disturbance moving along it that will pass to the south of the
region tomorrow. Cooler and drier air will filter back into the
region Tuesday night with high pressure building back in for
Wednesday into Thursday with normal to slightly below normal

Near term /through Tuesday/
As of 330 pm edt, chilly and damp conditions continue across the
region with mostly cloudy skies. However, warmer air from the
southwest has moved into some of the higher terrain of the eastern
catskills, where southwest winds above the inversion have allowed
temps to spike into the lower/mid 50s at tannersville per nys
mesonet observation.

Isolated/scattered showers and patchy drizzle continue to track east
from central nys into the mohawk valley region, ahead of an embedded
upper level impulse tracking toward eastern ny. These showers should
continue to drift east over the next 2-4 hours, before weakening
and/or shifting east of the region. The best chances for these
showers will be mainly near and north/west of the i-88/i-90

A few breaks in the clouds will be possible across portions of the
mid hudson valley and southeast catskills through sunset as well.

For tonight, with abundant low level moisture remaining, the
potential for at least areas of fog, some locally dense, will exist.

This potential will be increased if any sustained breaks in the
lower clouds develop, which would be more likely across portions of
the mid hudson valley. Will have to watch trends into this evening,
in case the areal coverage of fog increases and becomes dense.

Temps should fall into the mid/upper 30s for most areas overnight.

For Tuesday, yet another southern stream shortwave currently
tracking across the mid mississippi valley will track east/northeast
toward the northern mid atlantic region. In addition, another
shortwave currently over south central canada will be driving
east and strengthening.

It appears that rain should overspread southern areas during the
morning, and may expand north northeast in the afternoon, although
the northern extent of the rain shield remains somewhat in question.

For now, have indicated best chance for rain for the i-90 corridor
and points north in the afternoon/evening, as southern stream
moisture combines with the approaching northern stream energy which
may tend to pull the rain shield northward. The steadiest rain,
however, should be mainly from albany and points south and east
through the day.

Given the expectation for clouds and at least some rain, have
trended high temperatures cooler than blended MOS for Tuesday, with
mainly mid 40s to lower 50s expected. Temps will likely fall in
areas once rain becomes steadier due to wet bulb cooling

Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/
As of 425 pm edt...

tue night... The cold front continues to move
across the region from northwest to southeast with a period of
showers along it. The latest 12z nam/gfs/ecmwf/can ggem are in
pretty good agreement that the majority of the shower activity
will be over shortly before or just after midnight. The highest
pops were kept early in the evening over the southern most
zones... Mainly south and east of the capital region. Cold
advection will kick in the wake of the system with perhaps a few
snow showers or flurries over the southern adirondacks and the
southern greens. Any snow amounts will be very light with a
coating to maybe a couple of tenths. In terms of the low/mid-
level cold advection, h850 temps from the latest 12z GFS lower
to -3c to
-9c north and west of the capital region, southern greens, and
northern catskills. South and east of this area h850 temps
fall to -3c to +3c by daybreak on wed. Lows will generally be
in the mid 20s to lower 30s north and west of the capital
district and mid/upper 30s from the capital region/mid-hudson
valley south and east.

Wed-wed night... The forecast area will be under the influence of
an upper level trough and cyclonic flow through the day. Cold
advection will be continuing through the afternoon. A few snow
showers/flurries/sprinkles will linger across the upslope areas
of the southern adirondacks and southern greens. H850 temps
actually lower to -3c to -10c across the region during the day.

It will be brisk and chilly for a late march day. Mixing depths
may reach h850-825, but model soundings from the NAM indicate a
fairly strong subsidence inversion above h850, so NW to N winds
of 10 to 20 mph are possible with gusts to 25-30 mph at best.

Sunshine will mix with clouds, with more clouds over the higher
terrain. The mixing coupled with downsloping off the higher
terrain should allow for highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s /mid-
hudson valley for the lower 50s/ in the valley areas with mid
30s to lower 40s over the mountains. The winds should diminish
to less than 10 mph after sunset with a ridge of canadian high
pressure building in from south-central ontario or james bay. A
cold night is expected with lows mainly in the 20s, except for
teens over southern adirondacks, southern greens and the

Thursday... High pressure continues to dominate and build in
form southeast ontario/southwest quebec with cool and dry
weather. The mixing depths looks shallow for this day with light
northerly winds. The strong subsidence from the anticyclone
will yield mostly sunny conditions for most the region with
partly sunny conditions north and west of the hudson river
valley. The upper low trough shifts downstream with some flat
ridging building eastward ahead of the next trough moving
through the central plains. Highs will be near normal to
slightly below normal for thu. With the late march Sun angle
highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower
elevations with upper 30s to mid 40s over the hills/mountains.

Thursday night... A potent mid and upper trough moves from the
central plains into the central ms river valley/midwest based
on the latest gfs/ecmwf/can ggem. Clouds quickly thicken and
lower ahead of the systems warm front with a mid-level shortwave
approaching in the southwest flow. The ecmwf/gfs both have some
over-running or warm advection pcpn reaching eastern ny and
possibly portions of western new england between 06z-12z fri.

The can ggem is a little slower. We kept slight and low chc pops
across most of the region, except for southern vt. Thermal
profiles are cold enough for some wet snow with the onset of the
warm advection with perhaps a rain/snow mix over the mid-hudson
valley. Some light snow accums of a coating to less than an
inch are possible west of the hudson river valley. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of this system
and thermal profiles, as we head into Friday. Lows Thu night
are expected to be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long term /Friday through Sunday/
As of 425 pm edt...

guidance is in general agreement a low pressure system should be on
the approach from the southwest late in the week and it should pass
to our south Saturday as a southern stream trough/low moves toward
the southeast coast. What is uncertain is the exact track of the
system and the expected thermal profiles which will determine
precipitation types. Also there is quite a range in expected qpf
however guidance is indicating rather high amounts.

Have enough confidence to run with likely pops Friday into Saturday
however confidence is much lower for precipitation types and their
timing. At this time based on the current forecast, the
precipitation Friday morning would be transitioning from snow to
rain as the boundary layer warms with a transition back to snow
across much of the forecast area Friday night. If guidance trends
colder then more snow would be expected. The bulk of the
precipitation is expected Friday into Saturday with it tapering off
during the day Saturday as the system moves off to our east. A
northern stream short wave trough and associated front is expected
to then sweep across the region in the wake of the system over the
weekend with higher pressure building in as we head into next week.

As for temperatures with clouds and precipitation looking at below
normal during the daytime and near or a bit above at night

Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/
Although steady rainfall has shifted well east of the region, an
upper level disturbance combined with a warm front slowly
approaching from the southwest will likely lead to
isolated/scattered rain showers, along with patchy drizzle
through this afternoon. There could be a break in the rain
tonight, before additional light rain approaches from the
southwest during Tuesday with the approach of another upper
level disturbance and wave of low pressure.

As for light conditions, expect widespread MVFR to ifr, mainly
for cigs, this afternoon, with both CIGS and vsbys for tonight,
as areas of fog potentially form.

Ifr/MVFR conditions will likely continue into Tuesday for cigs,
with at least MVFR vsbys possible as rain develops.

Winds will be generally light/variable at less than 5 kt through
at least early Tuesday afternoon. They may trend into the
southeast to south at kalb for this afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Wednesday night to Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Friday: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn. Friday night:
high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn. Saturday: moderate
operational impact. Chance of shra... Ra.

Fire weather
Much of eastern new york and western new england continues to
have snow on the ground. Some of the valley areas have bare
patches, but the mountains have a deep snow pack. A moist and
damp air mass will be in place tonight with light winds, as a
cold front and a weak disturbance will bring showers tomorrow
into early tomorrow evening. High pressure will build in for the
mid-week into Thursday with cooler and drier weather.

A mild air mass will be over the region tonight ahead of a cold
front, and low pressure moving north of the saint lawrence river
valley with some additional snow melt.

Scattered showers are possible or a period of rain tomorrow
into early tomorrow night with the cold front. Additional
rainfall will range from a tenth of an inch or so over the
northern basins to a third of an inch over the the mid-hudson
valley and NW ct. This rainfall, along with the expected
snowmelt, will cause some within bank rises on rivers and
streams. However, this rain and snowmelt is not likely to
produce any concern for flooding at this time.

The latest mmefs forecasts have a few points getting to the
alert or action stage, but no flooding is forecast. The latest
nerfc forecasts only have williamstown on the hoosic river
barely reaching the ALERT or action stage Tue into early wed.

Flows will recede Tuesday night through the mid-week with a
colder and drier air mas building in. Temps are expected to go
below freezing Wed night and Thu night with a normal diurnal
melting of the snowpack in spots.

Some additional precipitation in the form of rain and snow is
expected for Friday into Saturday with another storm system.

There is some uncertainty with the track and the amount of
moisture associated with it. It be could be a moderate to heavy
precipitation event, but it is a low confidence forecast at
this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Kl
short term... Wasula
long term... Iaa
aviation... Frugis/kl
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Frugis/wasula

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi41 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist38°F36°F93%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE7NE7N5NE4CalmCalmN3CalmN3N5E3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE43CalmCalmCalmSW3S4Calm
2 days agoE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE6CalmNE3CalmNE5N4N5N7NW3N4N3N4N7NE6NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.