Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:38 AM EST (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 181156
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
656 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Synopsis
Seasonably cold and mainly dry weather is expected through
today, except for some lake effect snow showers across the
western adirondacks. An upper level disturbance may bring
additional snow showers tonight into early Friday for areas
mainly north and west of albany. Fair weather, with a gradual
warming trend is expected for this upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 636 am est... Tranquil conditions with cold temperatures
exist across the region early this morning, as a small area of
high pressure has allowed for decoupling of winds and good
radiational cooling conditions with a fresh snow pack in place.

Temperatures are mainly in the single digits to near zero with
some teens where there have been more clouds. Skies are mainly
clear from albany southward, although mostly cloudy conditions
occurring across the western and southern adirondacks due to
moisture off lake ontario. These areas should remain mostly
cloudy through much of the day, with mostly sunny skies
elsewhere.

There will be increasing chances for lake effect snow showers
across the western adirondacks today, as the surface ridge of
high pressure flattens out and westerly flow becomes better
aligned in the low levels. Conditional lake-induced instability
will yield mainly scattered snow showers over northern herkimer
and hamilton counties, with greater coverage north and west of
old forge closer to the tug hill. The lake effect activity
should be light due to very low inversion heights of around 850
mb. So only dusting to an inch of snow is expected across this
limited area. Elsewhere it will be dry with seasonably cold
temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
A fast-moving and compact short wave trough will approach from
the upper great lakes and move across the region tonight. The
main forcing will be north of albany, with limited moisture
associated with this system. Will mention isolated to scattered
snow showers with the passage of the disturbance, with the
better chances for some minor accumulations across the
western southern adirondacks. Areas from around the capital
district south will just see an increase in cloud cover.

On Friday, it will be mainly dry in wake of the disturbance
with gradually decreasing cloud cover. There still could be a
few light lake effect upslope snow showers over the western
adirondacks, with only a dusting in some spots. Temperatures
will start to moderate, although with the fresh snow pack in
place the moderation will be tempered on Friday with highs
expected to be near normal in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Dry and tranquil conditions forecast for Friday night through
Saturday night, with more of a moderation in temperature. Even
overnight lows will start to warm to above normal readings
Friday night, with even milder temperatures on Saturday as
warmer air aloft moves in. Still, with the snow on the ground we
will need decent mixing to allow temps to reach forecast highs,
but this appears likely based on the expected pressure gradient
with breezy westerly flow developing. Will mention upper 30s to
mid 40s, which will allow for some snow melt to occur.

Temperatures will drop back below freezing Saturday night with
20s in most areas, which is still well above normal for january.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Guidance remains in fairly good agreement with regards to the
longwave pattern that nearly zonal flow across the region will be
replaced by ridging occurring ahead of an approaching closed low
Monday. The closed low is expected to pass over the great lakes
region sometime Monday night into Tuesday night with it deepening as
northern and southern stream energy interact. Guidance is similar
with the track but differ with the timing. Have used guidance from
the weather prediction center for the timing which favors the slower
ecmwf over the faster gfs. Also of note, guidance has trended colder
with temperatures but still above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

Indications are the system should occluded as it moves through. With
the passage of the system there is agreement a colder, seasonable
airmass will be ushered back in.

Mainly dry weather Sunday with above normal temperatures with highs
mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Increasing chances for some light
warm air advection precipitation Sunday night and more so Monday.

The synoptic forcing looks rather weak as will still have ridging
aloft. Initially will be cold enough for snow with some mixed
precipitation expected before a change over to mainly cold rain on
Monday with highs only in the 30s.

Best chances for precipitation are expected Monday night and Tuesday.

P-types get complicated for Monday night as temperatures should
drop off some and but be mainly in the 30s. At this time, expecting
rain and snow with some sleet. Temperatures are expected to warm into
the low to mid 40s ahead of the occluded boundary Tuesday for plain
rain to occur across the local area except across the western and
southern adirondacks where temperatures should stay in the 30s so
rain snow expected. At this time expecting around an inch of QPF but
not all as rain so there is much uncertainty on what the impact
could be the ice jams in the area.

Steady precipitation expected to taper off to snow showers Tuesday
night as colder air is ushered back into the region. With strong cold
advection temperatures expected to drop into the teens and 20s. The
threat for isolated to scattered snow showers continues in the cyclonic
flow in the wake of the system especially along the favored westerly
upslope areas of the western adirondacks and southern greens of vermont.

High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be seasonable in the
mid 20s to upper 30s.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will continue to build in from the south and west
at the surface. While aloft an upper level disturbance will move
over the region late tonight. However, there is limited moisture
associated with this feature so mainly just an increase in clouds
expected. Lake effect snow showers are expected to remain limited
to the western and southern adirondacks. Some lake effect clouds
have moved into the local area impacting kalb.

A westerly flow will develop this morning increasing to 8-13
knots with gusts mainly in the teens at kalb and kpsf during the
day. Winds will weaken this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday night to Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of ra... Sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due
to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A
gradual warming trend will occur beginning this weekend,
although the degree of warming is not expected to be as
significant as what occurred last week. We will monitor trends
in temperatures due to potential impacts on existing ice jams.

In terms of precipitation, only some snow showers are expected
through Friday, with generally dry conditions expected over the
upcoming weekend. A period of mixed precipitation and or rain is
possible early next week, although details on precipitation
types and amounts are uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl jpv
near term... Jpv
short term... Jpv
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa
hydrology... Kl jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi46 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist-6°F-9°F86%1018.8 hPa

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Last 24hrN5N7N7N7N6CalmS3S5S8S4S3W7W7SW6SW7SW6S4S3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS5S5SW6S5S5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N3N7
2 days ago--N6N4CalmCalmE4CalmE3CalmNE3NE5NE4E3NE4E6E3NE3CalmS3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 12:23 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:29 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:11 PM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.101.12.53.444.33.82.92.11.510.40.41.534.35.15.55.34.332.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:13 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:19 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:02 PM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-01.22.53.43.94.13.62.61.81.30.70.20.41.53.14.355.353.92.71.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.