Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:19PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:37 PM EDT (22:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:14PMMoonset 7:38AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 212025
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
425 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
Winds will gradually lessen this evening as high
pressure builds into the region. This will result a pleasant spring
day with dry conditions and normal temperatures. The next chance of
widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives late Thursday into
Thursday night, as a strong disturbance approaches from the great
lakes.

Near term through Wednesday
Cool and breezy conditions will prevail for the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. Current conditions have
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s with winds 15-25 mph
and gusts up to 40 mph. These winds should gradually lessen this
evening as high pressure builds into the region. Clouds should
also continue to decrease.

Under clear skies and lesser winds, temperatures overnight will
dip into the upper 30s in the dacks to the mid 40s in the
valleys. These temperatures are slightly below normal.

Wednesday will be a pleasant, spring day with sunny skies and
normal temperatures. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the
upper 60s across the high terrain with lower 70s in the valley
locations.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Clouds will increase Wednesday night associated with a weak
disturbance as the upper ridge starts to flatten out. Limited
forcing and moisture should only result scattered showers.

Better chances will be south west of albany, so have mentioned
chance pops in these areas.

The next period of active weather looks to arrive Thursday
afternoon or evening, as a strong upper level disturbance
approaches from the great lakes region. The energy from this
system is actually originating in the southern plains, where
severe weather has occurred, and is now beginning its trek over
the upper ridge. So there is a strong convective footprint
associated with this system. Model guidance differs with timing,
as the GFS is on the fast side of the envelope and the nam
slower. NAM even has most of the day Thursday being potentially
dry. Timing could matter for strength coverage depending on when
convection moves into the area. Models are indicating at least
moderate CAPE developing across central ny Thursday afternoon,
with an instability gradient from albany and points west
developing later in the day. Storms could weaken in our area,
but may be borderline strong severe as they approach from
central ny. 0-6 km shear is impressive > 50 kt, so given
sufficient buoyancy mode of convection could be supercells. Will
mention potential for severe storms from the hudson valley
westward in the hwo, which is where the storm prediction center
has issued a slight risk outlook.

Any showers and storms should exit the region by daybreak on
Friday as the upper level disturbance exits quickly to our east.

This will lead to another breezy and seasonable day on Friday
behind the passage of a cold front. Temperatures Thursday should
reach the mid 60s to lower 70s but clouds may linger, especially
across the high terrain. By Friday evening, high pressure will
once again be building in from the west.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A typical early summer-like pattern is shaping up for our memorial
day holiday weekend with seasonably warm high temperatures in the
70s most days with overnight lows staying mild in the 50s. Eastern
ny and western new england looks to remain in fast zonal flow along
the northern periphery of an impressive large scale 500mb ridge
centered over the gulf states. Multiple shortwaves and surface
boundaries look to pass through, resulting in a few chances for
showers and some. Thunderstorms. However, there will be plenty of
dry time for those interested in spending time outdoors during the
holiday weekend. Read on for details.

We begin the long term period Friday evening with a shortwave ridge
over the northeast leading to surface high pressure and mainly dry
conditions. A weak low pressure system from the upper great lakes
travels into ontario and its associated warm front gradually pushes
into the northeast overnight. With increased warm air advection and
some moisture noted at 700mb, we slowly cloud coverage and increased
pops to slight chance low end chance (mainly north west of the
capital region) late Friday night into Saturday morning to account
for a few isolated showers. Our aforementioned surface high shifts
off the coast of southern new england during the day Saturday with
our region in the warm sector. Expect high temperatures a few
degrees warmer than Friday in the mid 70s (60s terrain) with
increased humidity in the west-southwest flow. While the main parent
low looks to pass well to our north near hudson bay, 500mb height
falls move from NW to SE into our region after 18z Saturday into the
evening as a pre-frontal trough gradually shifts into eastern ny and
western new england. Its main cold front looks to still be well to
our west over the great lakes. Depending on how much sunshine we see
during the day Saturday in the warm sector, there could be enough
instability to lead to some thunderstorms so we included slight
chance for thunderstorms both Saturday afternoon and evening. While
we included chance pops Saturday afternoon, we held off likely pops
until after 00z Sunday to show that confidence for precipitation is
higher after sunset when the best forcing arrives. Otherwise, expect
a mild Saturday night with cloud coverage remaining in place.

We won't see much of a temperature change once the pre-frontal
trough exits by Sunday morning as winds remains westerly in the warm
sector with the main cold front still well to our west near the
ny canadian border. Therefore, daytime temperatures Sunday should be
quite warm as we remain in westerly flow with highs reaching in the
mid-upper 70s, potentially near 80 in the mid-hudson valley and
southern areas of litchfield county, ny. We'll see winds shift to
the NW as the main front pushes through the region and while the
main broad upper level trough will also be pushing through, lots of
dry air at 700mb should prevent much in the way of showers. Thus, we
only have slight chance pops on Sunday.

Weak high pressure builds in for Sunday night into the memorial day
holiday with a more pronounced 500mb shortwave trough digging
southeastward from canada towards the northeast. Model guidance has
trended stronger with this trough over the past few models runs with
now the ecmwf, GFS and cmc-nh all generally showing the same
intensity. The first half of the day should be mainly dry as high
pressure remains in place but 500mb height falls arrive after 18z
Monday, mainly on the ECMWF and gfs. The cmc-nh is slower with the
trough's arrival. It's also worth noting that the GFS and ECMWF both
show this initially positively trough becoming negatively tilted
into Monday night, suggesting strong forcing. However, the sytem's
origins come from northern canada which means it will be moisture
starved and 700mb rh shows a lack of moisture. Thus, we only have
chance pops in the latest update mainly for Monday afternoon into
the evening.

Large scale canadian high pressure quickly builds in behind our
departing cold front Monday night into Tuesday. The tight pressure
gradient between the two systems could lead to breezy northwest
winds in the wake of the frontal passage. Strong NW flow continuing
into Tuesday should lead to cooler high temperatures in the 60s to
near 70 with lower dew points humidity. Mainly dry conditions are
expected as well.

Aviation 19z Tuesday through Sunday
Flying conditions areVFR over the region. In the wake of a
departing upper level trough, some lingering sct-bkn stratocu clouds
continue around 4-5 kft, but these will continue to decrease in
coverage through the rest of the day as the trough moves away. Skies
look to be clear overnight with continuedVFR conditions. Just some
thin cirrus is expected for during the day on Wednesday.

Winds have been gusty today, with some gusts over 25 kts at times. W-
nw winds will continue to be 10 to 20 kts through the rest of the
day, with some gusts up to 30 kts (especially for kalb kpsf). These
winds look to diminish this evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes, with NW winds generally under 10 kts for late this evening
and becoming fairly light for after midnight. During the day on
Wednesday, northerly winds are expected to be around 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
Northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph for the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening...

cool and windy conditions expected for the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening, but then should start to weaken as
high pressure builds into the region. The high will will be in
place tonight through Wednesday, providing dry conditions and
near normal temperatures. The next chance of widespread showers
and thunderstorms arrives late Thursday into Thursday night, as
a strong disturbance approaches from the great lakes.

Relative humidity values will increase to maximum values of
around 65 to 85 percent tonight, and to around 70 to 90 percent
Wednesday night. Minimum rh values will be around 30 to 40
percent Wednesday afternoon, with 55 to 75 percent Thursday
afternoon.

Winds today will be northwest around 15 to 25 mph, with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph, decreasing to around 5 to 15 mph late tonight.

Winds on Wednesday will be north-northwest between 5 and 10 mph.

Hydrology
Dry weather will prevail through Wednesday as high pressure
gradually builds into the region. Widely scattered light
showers are possible late Wednesday night mainly south and west
of albany, as a weak disturbance moves through.

The next chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is
expected late Thursday into Thursday night, as a stronger
disturbance approaches from the great lakes. While brief
downpours are possible within any thunderstorms, the rainfall is
not expected to be hydrologically significant.

Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible
again over the upcoming weekend.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jpv jlv
near term... Frugis jlv
short term... Jpv jlv
long term... Speciale
aviation... Frugis
fire weather... Jpv jlv
hydrology... Jpv jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi44 minNW 22 G 3210.00 miFair and Breezy63°F33°F33%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10
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2 days agoS5E7E6NE4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S11S10S7S11S10S13
G17
S135Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Tue -- 01:52 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:30 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.60.20.92.43.94.95.65.85.242.920.9-0-012.33.44.14.54.23.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:34 AM EDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.50.31.12.645.15.75.853.92.81.80.7-0.10.11.22.53.54.24.54.13.22.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.