Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 5:07 AM   Moonset 7:57 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 071419 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1019 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures for today. A storm system will bring some showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday, with unsettled weather and cooler temperatures expected for Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Update
As of 10:20 AM EDT...Mainly just minor adjustments with this update to match current obs. Temperatures were running a degree or two above the previous forecast, so bumped up temperatures through the next several hours and bumped daytime highs up a couple degrees as well, especially with mostly clear skies expected through this afternoon. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with tranquil weather expected today thanks to high pressure nearby...

Previous
After the chilly start, expect mostly sunny skies today with a warm afternoon as mixing depth increases to at least H800. Expect afternoon temps to reach the lower/mid 70s for many valley areas, except 75-80 within the Hudson River Valley from Albany south to Poughkeepsie.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Clouds increase this evening, with showers/thunderstorms developing from west to east between 3 and 5 AM ahead of strengthening low/mid level jet max and warm advection.
Showalter Indices drop to between zero and -2C for areas south of I-90 by daybreak, so expect some rumbles of thunder within these areas.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue to move eastward across the region through mid morning Wednesday before tapering off from west to east. There should then be a lull in showers/thunderstorms during the late morning hours.

Low confidence forecast for Wednesday afternoon, as model guidance offering widely varying possibilities, with some hi-res guidance suggesting warm front advances north and east before stalling north of I-90 in the afternoon, while other guidance suggests warm front shifts through the entire region with gusty west/southwest winds enveloping many areas and some drying for the afternoon. Have favored NBM for general evolution of weather conditions for Wednesday afternoon, with afternoon warming for areas south of I-90 (max temps in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s) and remaining cooler to the north (max temps mainly 65-70).

Favoring NBM guidance also would suggest best chance for additional afternoon showers/thunderstorms would be for areas south of I-90, where highest probabilities of MU CAPES >500 J/kg exists. There will be strong 0-6 km shear across the region (45-55 KT), mainly unidirectional. This would suggest that should any convection develop, gusty winds and hail could accompany strongest cells. However, there will be quite a bit of mid level dry air entraining into the region behind the morning convection, which could greatly limit overall coverage of any afternoon convection. At this time, it appears that coverage may remain isolated to scattered at best, however should any thunderstorms develop, they could contain damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has placed most of eastern NY/western New England within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon.

There could be a few stronger thunderstorms across northern areas later in the afternoon as well, closer to approaching shortwave and within an area of steeper mid level lapse rates (7-8 C/km).

Showers/thunderstorm threat should diminish Wednesday evening, with patchy fog developing. The next system approaches for Thursday afternoon and night although there remains uncertainty in how quickly this system approaches. Some showers may develop Thursday afternoon, with better chances at night, especially for areas near and south of I-90. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Thursday mainly in the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The extended forecast continues to feature wet and unsettled weather into the weekend. A sfc cyclone and its occluded front will continue to bring periods of rain to forecast area on Friday. The 500 hPa low closes off over southeast Ontario and the Great Lakes Region, as the longwave trough remains positively tilted. Damp and cool conditions prevail with max temps running about 10 degrees below normal with mid 40s to lower 50s over the the higher terrain and mid and upper 50s in the valleys. The mid and upper level low remains near or over eastern NY and New England Friday night into Saturday. The rain tapers to scattered showers Fri night. Some intervals of dry weather are possible on Saturday. However, the upstream long wave trough amplifies, as a sfc trough rotates around the cyclone near Nova Scotia. We can not rule out a chance of showers based on the latest medium range and ensemble guidance. Lows will be chilly with upper 30s to mid 40s over the forecast area Friday night. Highs on Saturday with abundant clouds and the chance of showers will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Some upper 40s can not be ruled out over the southern Dacks and southern Greens. Isolated to scattered showers will continue Saturday night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The 2nd half of the weekend features more inclement weather with a mid level trough over the Northeast, Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic States. A low pressure system and an occluded front will bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Temps will continue to run below normal with 50s to lower 60s for highs. The good news is that the trough begins to lift out of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday with some ridging trying to build in from the south Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers can not be ruled out, but some sunshine may be mixed with clouds with temps trending to normal mid May readings.
The latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 14-20 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12Z Wednesday...Morning MVFR mist will diminish at KPOU with VFR conditions for KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU until 08Z-10Z/WED as high pressure will be in control. Some showers/rain will move in ahead of a warm front and a mid level disturbance with MVFR/VFR conditions with vsbys 4-6SM and cigs 3.5-5 kft AGL.

The winds will be northeast to northwest at 4-8 KT in the late morning through the afternoon...and become light to calm by 00Z/WED persist at varying directions at 5 KT or less overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Tue -- 05:03 AM EDT     5.98 feet High Tide
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Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
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Tue -- 11:40 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
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Tue -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

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