Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:30PM Saturday November 17, 2018 11:56 AM EST (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 1:31AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 171505
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1005 am est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the region today with lake
effect snow showers and flurries mainly north and west of the
capital region. The cold front will move south of the region
tonight with high pressure briefly building in with diminishing lake
effect activity. Mainly light snow will begin to overspread the
region Sunday afternoon into the night time period, as a disturbance
passing south of the region will be moving along the old frontal
boundary, as temperatures for mid november will continue below
normal.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1005 am est... Made some minor adjustments to pop weather,
temp, sky grids to account for current observations and trends.

Still plenty of cloud cover across much of the area, although
some breaks have developed in parts of the mid hudson valley and
litchfield hills. We are still expecting some diffuse scattered
lake effect snow showers to push southward from the southwest
adirondacks this afternoon. However, surface temperatures have
warmed with marginal temps in the mid 30s, and accums should
stay light around a dusting to a few tenths of an inch in the
mohawk valley, mainly on grassy surfaces. Snow showers could
even mix with rain at times this afternoon. Upstream bufkit
soundings from krme and kuca continue to show lake induced
conditional instability with marginal delta t's from the sfc to
h850 h700 around 15c. Inversion heights also remain low at or
below 5 kft agl. A few westerly upslope snow showers and
flurries will persist along the western spine of the southern
greens this morning with light accums of a coating to less than
a half an inch.

Some of the cloud cover will likely erode from the capital
region south and east during the early to mid afternoon, as high
pressure tries to nose in from the mid atlantic states. The
boundary layer flow will shift to the west to southwest and
despite the snow pack some warming is possible with h850 temps
-3c to -7c ahead of the cold front.

The west to southwest winds ahead of the front may allow for
some downsloping off the adirondacks and catskills for highs to
get into the lower to mid 40s in the hudson river valley and
also southern litchfield co. Allowing for some snow melt. Mid
and upper 30s will be common in most other locations, except for
some upper 20s to lower 30s over the mountains.

The cold front approaches from the eastern great lakes region
and st lawrence river valley in the late afternoon. The lake
effect band off ontario may briefly reorganize with a 260-270
deg low-level trajectory for some snow showers for light accums
of an inch or so in the western adirondacks. An isolated snow
squall is possible for the western dacks. The latest 00z gfs
and 3-km NAM showed this occurring more so than the 3-km hrrr.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Tonight... The cold front has limited low-level moisture with as
it passes south and east across the forecast area. Any
organized lake effect activity that gets going will get
disrupted, as the low-level flow quickly veers to the
northwest. Inversion heights continue to lower. Highest pops
will be confined to the southern mohawk valley and schoharie
valley, where a few tenths to an inch or so could accumulate.

We kept a slight to low chance of snow showers mainly west of
the hudson river valley with the veering flow. A few upslope
snow showers off the southern greens are possible early on
during the evening. High pressure quickly builds in with a
partial clearing possible north of the capital region. In the
cold advection h850 temps fall to -9c to -12c from aly north and
west, and -5c to -8c south and east. If the winds decouple with
the clearing skies, lows could fall into the teens over the
southern adirondacks and the southern greens with 20s over the
rest of the region.

Sunday... A quiet start, but clouds will begin to thicken and
increase from the south and west, as low pressure will moving
towards the oh valley and moving along the old washed out cold
front south of the region. High pressure will shift east to
northeast of the region. Thermal advection begins with moisture
over running the old frontal boundary with light snow breaking
out across the catskills, north and east to potentially the
capital region, taconics, and mid hudson valley into southwest
new england. Some light rain may mix in briefly in the mid
hudson valley. There will be a lot of dry air in place which may
limit the northward extent initially, but a better coverage of
light snow is expected for the overnight period, as the
isentropic lift increases on the 285-290k surfaces. Highs on
Sunday will be about 10-15 degrees below normal with lower to
mid 30s in the valley areas, except the mid-hudson valley where
a few upper 30s are possible. Mid 20s to lower 30s will be
common over the mountains.

Sunday night... Fairly good agreement between the 00z
nam gfs ECMWF cmc and many ensembles that the best synoptic
forcing with the isentropic lift north of the wave and ahead of
the warm front will be during this time frame. The northward
extent may be a sharp cut-off over the northern zones. A couple
of inches of snow is possible especially over the eastern
catskills, taconics, and berkshires. Actually, we could get 1-3"
from late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning in these
locations. We have an inch or so in the valleys. Some light snow
will likely continue through the Monday morning commute. This
looks like a widespread light snow event with total qpf
generally under a quarter inch. Lows due to wet bulbing will be
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Monday... The light snow should end in the morning, as the sfc
wave pulls to the north and east. Some lingering light rain snow
showers or flurries may linger in the afternoon in the southwest
flow aloft as weak impulses continue to move through. Temps will
still run on the cold side with widespread 30s to lower 40s and
more clouds than sunshine. We will have to monitor another weak
wave moving along the boundary near southern ny, southern new
england and pa heading into Monday night into tue.

Long term Monday night through Friday
At upper levels, a broad trough will be in place across the
northeastern CONUS while ridging dominates the weather out west.

Locally, the broad trough will lead to below normal temperatures and
some chances for snow showers throughout the work week as upper
level impulses cold fronts pass through.

To start the period Monday night into Tuesday, an upper level
shortwave will pass through the region, along with a surface cold
front. This will result in the chance for snow showers across the
region, with less than half of an inch accumulation expected.

High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night, with dry but chilly
conditions anticipated. Temperatures Tuesday night will dip into the
single digits in the dacks, with the mid teens elsewhere.

A stronger upper level system, and reinforcing shot of cold air will
approach and clip the region Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring the chance for additional snow showers with continued cold
temperatures. The latest GEFS shows the 850mb temps are 1 to 2 std.

Dev. Below normal. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid
20s to mid 30s, which is still well below the normal highs in the
upper 40s.

Dry weather is expected to end the work week as high pressure builds
into the region once again. This may allow for slight modification
of temps into the low 30s to near 40 degrees for highs.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
MVFR toVFR CIGS will be in place through the TAF forecast
period as high pressure builds towards new york. For the
early morning period, MVFR CIGS will dominate as the area
remains under a westerly flow. A few snow flurries will be
possible off the lakes under this flow regime but are not
expected to reduce visibilities or accumulate.VFR conditions
are then expected across all TAF sites by this afternoon.

Winds from the west to northwest at 5-10 kt are expected today.

Some gusts up to 20-25 kt could occur, mainly at kalb and kpsf.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Fire weather
Most of eastern new york and western new england is entirely snow
covered from the snowstorm yesterday. Colder than normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend. Lake effect snow
showers will persist north and west of the capital region
today. A widespread light snowfall will move in Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

Hydrology
Flows will continue to lower in the colder than normal
temperatures and mainly dry weather today, except for lake
effect snow showers over the western adirondacks into the
western mohawk valley. A few snow showers will continue over the
southern greens.

A disturbance moving along a front south of the region will
bring some light snowfall amounting to light accumulations of a
few inches or less late Sunday afternoon through Monday. Another
disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow showers
on Tuesday and Wednesday with light qpf.

Colder than normal temperature persist into the thanksgiving
holiday with flows continuing to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Jpv wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jlv
aviation... Jlv
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi64 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6S5S6S7S6S6S7S6S8S8S10S10S6S9S9SW8SW11S8S9SW10SW9SW9S7SW9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N6N6N7N8N7N9N12N11N11N15NW11N7NE6E5
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NW84NW7NW6N4CalmE4CalmNE4CalmCalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 12:31 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:12 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.74.23.32.41.710.2-0.10.723.13.84.34.23.62.72.11.60.90.40.71.83.13.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 12:32 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:18 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:02 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.13.22.21.60.80.1-00.92.23.23.94.34.23.52.621.50.80.40.823.24

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.