Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warrensburg, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:35PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:42 PM EST (21:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrensburg, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 212054
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
354 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
Milder and dry weather will continue through the first part of
the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. A low
pressure system will track out of the central u.S. On Saturday,
bringing mixed precipitation to our area Saturday night before
changing to rain Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Clouds continue to slowly erode as high pressure builds towards
the area. A few light lake enhanced showers continue across the
western adirondacks but not much in the way of any accumulation
is expected. These light showers should taper off as the surface
high moves closer to the region.

Temperatures currently range from the lower 30s in the
adirondacks where cloud cover has persisted all day, to near 50
degrees in the mid-hudson valley where sunshine has persisted.

Winds are also breezy, generally from the west, with gusts up to
30 mph. These winds should die down this evening.

Temperatures overnight will generally be in the 20s, with the
coldest spots in the high terrain of the adirondacks.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
Cloud cover will continue to decrease throughout the day Friday
with plentiful sunshine. Clouds will linger longer downwind of
the lake. High temperatures expected in the 30s to lower 40s.

High pressure exits through the day Saturday as the next low
pressure system approaches from the central u.S. High clouds
will increase through the day Saturday and low level warm
advection will gradually increase. Highs Saturday in the upper
30s to lower 40s.

Precipitation spreads over our region Saturday night as warm
advection, moisture advection and isentropic lift increase.

Surface temperatures are likely to fall a little through
Saturday evening before the precipitation begins. Then, wet
bulb processes with the steadier precipitation will likely aid
in temperatures falling another degree or two across the region
later Saturday evening. Temperatures will be near or below
freezing in many areas later Saturday evening before
temperatures rise slowly after midnight, especially in the
hudson valley and NW ct north to the capital district.

It looks like the transition from a wintry mix to plain rain
will be take place fairly quickly Saturday night, with the
transition first up the mid-hudson valley into the capital
district. Cold air looks like it will hold on longer across the
high terrain of the catskills, adirondacks, lake-george saratoga
region, southern greenes and the berkshires. These locations are
where we could see a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow sleet as well
as up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation before changing
over to all rain on Sunday. Rain will then continue through the
rest of the day with periods of moderate rainfall possible.

There is still some model variability with total QPF with this
system but it looks like most locations will see between half of
an inch to an inch of precipitation, with highest amounts south
and east of the capital district. Temperatures on Sunday should
warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
The long term forecast period will begin with the deep low pressure
system exiting the region with lingering snow showers across eastern
new york and western new england. The lake-enhanced snow showers
will linger across the region late Sunday through Monday with
minimal accumulations. Strong winds are expected starting Sunday
night and continuing through the day on Monday. This is suggested by
a very strong pressure gradient, robust pressure rise fall couplets,
and deep mixing potential into an anomalously strong low-level jet.

The strongest winds are expected over the mohawk valley, catskills,
southern capital region, taconics, southern vermont and western
massachusetts. The high terrain will experience the stronger winds
as well. Winds could gust up to around 55 mph Sunday night through
Monday and wind advisories will likely be needed to address the
strong winds. Temperatures could remain steady throughout the day
Monday in the 20s 30s as strong cold-air advection will be in place.

High pressure will briefly build into the region on Tuesday keeping
conditions dry with partly cloudy skies. The upper flow pattern will
become more zonal as we head through the week, but there are some
hints at a clipper type system for the Wednesday into Thursday time
period. Other guidance suggests a moisture starved weak piece of
energy being pushed to our south. For now, have gone with chance
pops with temperatures cold enough to support snow. Snow
accumulation amounts are very uncertain as of now. Temperatures for
Tuesday through Thursday will be near normal to slightly below
normal with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits
and teens.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Low pressure continues to track off to the east along with
deeper moisture. A surface trough has passed the terminals and
allowed some of the shallower moisture to mix out such that
mainlyVFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some
lowerVFR stratus have spread back into the terminals north of
kpou. Expect bkn coverage to persist north of kpou for the rest
of the day and perhaps into the night. CIGS may dip to MVFR at
times at kpsf. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but vsby
reductions are unlikely. By Friday morning into early
afternoon, a bit more breaks in the clouds may appear.

Winds this afternoon will be fairly strong from the west with
some gusts of 20-30 kt. These gusts may persist into the early
part of the overnight period before gradually diminishing. Winds
Friday morning into early afternoon will become northwesterly at
5 to 10 kt.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn... Sleet.

Sunday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Ra.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 37.0 isolated shsn.

Hydrology
Hydrological impacts are not expected through at least Saturday.

However, we should see gradual melting of snowpack with milder
temperatures during the afternoons today and Saturday with
temperatures falling below freezing at night.

Another period of wintry precipitation is expected Saturday
night before changing to all rain on Sunday. Rainfall is
expected to continue through the day Sunday, with total qpf
amounts generally between half of an inch up to an inch. This
rainfall, combined with warmer temperatures, will promote
snowmelt and some minor rises on area rivers. The latest mmefs
doesn't show any flooding at this time but will continue to
monitor as we move closer to the event.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jlv
near term... Jlv
short term... Jlv
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY16 mi50 minVar 410.00 miOvercast41°F26°F55%1014.4 hPa

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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4SE5E5CalmN3CalmS3S5S4SW6S6SW5SW7--4
1 day agoS4S4N4NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S34CalmSE3S4Calm
2 days agoNE9NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE7S10S10S8S6

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 12:36 AM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     5.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:51 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:34 PM EST     5.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.50.62.23.64.65.254.12.91.90.90.1-0.30.52.13.84.95.65.64.93.62.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 12:25 AM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 AM EST     5.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:26 PM EST     5.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.40.82.43.84.75.24.93.92.71.70.8-0.1-0.30.72.4455.65.64.73.42.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.