Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lyndonville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:37AMMoonset 10:53PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Sodus Bay- 916 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Patchy fog. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southeast. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:201801222215;;829405 FZUS61 KBUF 221416 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 916 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A warm front will lift across the lake today, as a 29.4 inch low moves into the central Mississippi valley. This low will track across southern Ontario Tuesday, sweeping a cold front across the lake. The low will deepen to 28.8 inches while moving to Labrador on Wednesday. A 30.5 inch High will build over the lake for Thursday and Friday. LOZ062-063-222215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyndonville, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.54, -78.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 221802
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
102 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift across the region with some light rain and
drizzle today. A large storm system tracks through the great lakes
with another round of rain tonight. A cold front will then bring
back more typical winter weather late Tuesday into Thursday. Another
warm up is forecast Friday into next weekend.

Near term through tonight
Dense fog advisory has been extend for southern erie, wyoming and
the southern tier through 4 pm this afternoon. Regional observation
and web cameras in these areas continue to show dense fog with
visibilities dropping below a quarter of a mile especially across
higher terrain. Elsewhere, visibilities have improve enough to
discontinue the advisory.

The leading edge of a warm front continues to slowly lifted into and
across western ny this morning with its eastern end yet to move
across north central new york. Radar returns show light rain showers
moving across lake erie, southern tier, and across the niagara
frontier late this morning. This is likely the leading edge of a low
level jet which is forcing the rainfall. Ahead of this, mainly dry
with some patchy foggy is found across central ny ahead of the warm
front. Temperatures across western and central ny remain mild with
readings in the mid to upper 30s with only the immediate saint
lawrence river valley running near or below freezing.

The low level jet will lift an area of light rain across western ny
through late this morning and then shift into central ny this
afternoon. Total QPF today is forecast to range from a few
hundredths across the western finger lakes to near a quarter inch
from the niagara frontier to the north county. The only exception to
the plain rain will be across northern jefferson county where
persistent northeasterly flow will likely keep sub-freezing air
locked into tonight. This will result in precipitation falling as
freezing rain this afternoon and evening before temperatures climb
above freezing tonight. A winter weather advisory remains in place
for jefferson county to account for about two tenths of an inch ice
accretion.

The precipitation will wane across western ny this afternoon as the
leading edge of the low level jet pushes north and east. Most areas
south of lake ontario will lie within the warm sector with a short
period of limited showers or dry but cloudy conditons. There could
also be some redevelopment of fog. Temperatures will climb into the
40s south of lake ontario, possibly near 50 degrees closer to the
pennsylvania state line. Temps will linger near freezing along the
saint lawrence river valley but reach the low 40s south toward
fulton.

Tonight, models continue to indicate a cold front will push across
lake erie reaching western ny by daybreak Tuesday. This cold front
will be associated with a storm system lifting from the midwest
states into the central great lakes. Another several hour period of
rain will bring an additional quarter to half inch of rain tonight.

Some additional ice accumulations should be expected across the
saint lawrence river valley before temps rise above freezing. A
steady southerly flow ahead of the cold front should prevent
additional dense fog. Temps should linger in the low to mid 40s most
of the night with upper 30s in the north country late. The
combination of snow melt and a half to three-quarters of an inch of
rain fall may bring some ice jams. A flood watch remains in effect
from this afternoon through Tuesday with additional details in the
hydrology section below.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
A large and mature low pressure system centered near georgian bay
Tuesday morning will continue to track northeast down the st.

Lawrence valley Tuesday and Tuesday night before eventually turning
north into labrador on Wednesday. The cold front associated with
this system will cross western north-central new york during the day
on Tuesday, and as this occurs we will likely see rain give way to a
period of dry weather or a few scattered showers before wrap-around
moisture precipitation on the western side of the departing low
works its way across the forecast area. The wrap-around
precipitation will coincide with falling temperatures as cold air is
advected into the region behind the low, and by the end of the day
we should see rain showers changing over to snow showers,
particularly across upslope areas east of the lakes.

Temperatures will continue to fall Tuesday night, as sub-arctic air
filters across the region in the wake of the departing low. Readings
will fall into the low 20s by daybreak on Wednesday, ushering in a
return to more winter-like conditions. As 850mb temps fall below
-10c, we should see lake effect snows develop southeast of the
lakes. Model QPF fields are having difficulty picking up on this
feature, due likely to the very shallow moisture profiles, however
bufkit profiles show instability and saturation within the dendritic
growth zone, much as they did last week when we had light but
persistent les in spite of model QPF being negligible. With that in
mind, have bumped up pops and snow amounts southeast of the lakes
for Tuesday night into Wednesday with roughly 1-3 inches possible
Tuesday night and 1-2 more inches possible Wednesday across the more
lake-effect prone areas southeast of the lakes.

Lake effect snows may linger into Wednesday night before winding
down on Thursday, as surface ridging moves across the lower great
lakes. This should lead to a return of sunshine on Thursday, though
northwesterly flow aloft will keep it cold across the region, with
highs ranging from the low teens in the north country to the low to
mid 20s in western new york. Wednesday night will likely be the
coldest night of the week, with lows in the lower teens across most
areas, except for the north country, which will be flirting with sub-
zero temperatures. Thursday night will be slightly less cold, as
upper level troughing will be in the process of departing the region.

Long term Friday through Sunday
High pressure, fair weather, and milder temperatures will be the
name of the game on Friday, as an amplifying upper level ridge moves
overhead the region. The respite will be short-lived however, as the
next storm system in what continues to be a very progressive upper
level pattern approaches the region. While the main surface low
associated with this system will pass well to our north across james
bay and into quebec, a deep plume of gomex moisture will be drawn
towards this low around the western periphery of the bermuda high
and across our region, where it will interact with a sharp upper
level trough over the midwest and a favorably positioned upper level
jet-streak to produce widespread rainfall from the mississippi
valley to the lower great lakes Saturday into Saturday night. The
system should be fast-moving enough to keep rainfall amounts from
raising flooding concerns at this point.

Warm temperatures will accompany the moisture plume, with highs
easily climbing back into the 40s for much of the weekend. Rainfall
should wind down from west to east Sunday, as the progressive system
presses on to the east and a cold front crosses the region Sunday,
with temperatures falling back below freezing Sunday night.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
A warm front is lifting NE of western ny with the back edge of
the widespread light rain showers slowly exiting the niagara
frontier and genesee valley early this afternoon. Lifr ifr
conditions persist at iag kroc jhw but conditions will gradually
improve at these terminals through the rest of the afternoon
hours behind the warm front. Further east, kart will see
deteriorate conditions as precipitation overspreads north
central ny. Expect MVFR conditions with a period of -fzra
between 17z-00z across jefferson county and the saint lawrence
valley where persistent NE flow will lock in a shallow layer of
sub freezing air.

Tonight, low pressure will track NE into and across the great lakes
region sending its cold front towards the lower lakes with another
round of widespread rain. As the precipitation overspreads western
ny conditions will deteriorate with MVFR CIGS vsbys and low level
wind shear as a strong LLJ pushes into the region. Tuesday, expect
continued MVFR conditions as a sharp mid-level short wave trough
brings in a much colder air mass with more showers changing to
snow showers.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with rain showers changing to snow showers before
ending... Then areas of lake effect snow also developing east of the
lakes Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Thursday and Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
East winds will freshen on today on lake ontario with a warm front
slowly lifting across the south shore of the lake. This front will
be associated with an area of low pressure tracking into the mid-
mississippi valley then towards the great lakes tonight. Winds and
waves will reach small craft advisory on the western half of lake
ontario this afternoon into this evening.

The low will sweep a cold front across the lower great lakes Tuesday
with winds becoming westerly by Tuesday night. This will likely bring
another round of solid small craft advisory conditions and near gale
force winds to lake ontario behind the front Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Hydrology
A flood watch for ice jam flooding is in effect for all of
western new york from this afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Temperatures continue to hover in the low to mid 40s across
much of western new york allowing a continuation of the
snowpack across the region to melt. Temperatures will remain
above freezing into Tuesday evening... With daytime readings
peaking between 45 and 50 and widespread rain coming tonight.

This will allow a true melt down of the snowpack over the
western counties with the runoff flowing into creeks... Many of
which are ice covered clogged.

Using research proven over several decades... The melting degrees
experienced from the above described temperature forecast
suggests that ice jam flooding could prove to be a problem as
early as this afternoon. This potential problem will be
exacerbated by a general quarter to as much as three quarters
inch of rain later today through tonight.

While there will be a risk for ice jam flooding... A less
impressive snowpack... Lower temperatures and less rainfall
compared to last weeks flooding should translate into more
localized flooding. In other words... Flooding should not be as
widespread as the last event. In any case... Those living in
areas prone to ice jam flooding should pay attention to water
levels and subsequent statements and warnings issued by the
buffalo national weather service office.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for nyz007.

Flood watch through Tuesday evening for nyz001>005-010>014-
019>021-085.

Dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for nyz012-
019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Ar smith
near term... Ar smith
short term... Wood
long term... Wood
aviation... Ar
marine... Ar smith
hydrology... Rsh smith


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 30 mi41 min ENE 12 G 15 36°F 1013.9 hPa (-3.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi41 min 35°F 1013.8 hPa (-4.7)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi161 min E 20 G 24 35°F 1017.3 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 49 mi41 min E 2.9 G 7 39°F 1011.5 hPa (-3.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last
24hr
N2
N3
N2
N4
N2
NE3
S2
E2
NE2
SE2
SE3
SE3
SE2
E4
E4
E5
E5
E7
E7
E9
G12
E7
E5
E6
E5
1 day
ago
SW21
W18
G22
SW10
G15
SW9
SW11
SW9
S8
S9
S7
G10
S7
W5
SW3
W2
SE3
S3
G6
S8
G11
S6
SW3
SW5
SW2
S7
--
S1
W1
2 days
ago
SW15
G22
SW12
G18
SW11
G15
SW8
G11
SW9
G13
SW10
SW18
G22
SW18
G22
SW20
SW22
G31
SW20
SW22
G28
SW16
G24
SW16
G23
SW17
G25
SW18
G24
SW18
G26
SW17
G23
SW13
G21
SW13
G18
SW11
G20
SW12
G18
SW17
G21
SW17
G23

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY41 mi47 minESE 73.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F39°F100%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E4E4E8E8E10E9E8E7
1 day agoW19
G30
W20
G28
W13W14
G22
W12W10W11W9W8W7W9W8SW6W4S5SW4SW4CalmW4SW9SW7SW3W5Calm
2 days agoSW12SW7SW7W3SW6SW10SW7SW11
G20
SW18SW18SW17
G26
SW20W19
G28
W26
G32
W19
G26
W21
G32
W16
G34
W20
G32
W22
G33
W22
G31
W23
G31
W18
G29
W20
G35
W20
G32

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.