Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lyndonville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:44PM Monday November 19, 2018 10:48 AM EST (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 939 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:201811192215;;541525 FZUS61 KBUF 191439 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 939 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A ridge averaging 30.4 inches will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes today. A weak cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes early Tuesday. A 30.4 inch high will then settle into the Lower Ohio Valley late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A 29.8 inch low will track from near Georgian Bay Wednesday morning to New England by Wednesday night, with a strong cold front crossing the lake Wednesday. A 30.6 inch high will then build from the western Great Lakes Wednesday night to the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday. LOZ062-192215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyndonville, NY
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location: 43.54, -78.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191440
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
940 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak area of low pressure moving by to the south of the region
will spread some light snow into areas near the pennsylvania state
line later this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise the rest of the
area will be mainly dry today with a ridge of high pressure in
place. A pair of clipper systems will bring a few rounds of snow
showers Tuesday through Wednesday, with some limited lake effect
snow east and southeast of the lakes. Cold temperatures will last
through thanksgiving before warmer air arrives next weekend.

Near term through tonight
A weak and narrow ridge of high pressure will remain in place
across the lower great lakes, and this will keep the bulk of the
region dry today through most of tonight. There will even be
some sunshine from the niagara frontier eastward along the south
shore of lake ontario for a few hours this morning through
early afternoon as drier air over southern ontario moves
eastward. The one exception will be across the southern tier.

Another weak wave of low pressure will run ene along a
baroclinic zone from the central appalachians to southern new
england. This wave will be farther south than the one yesterday,
but will still be close enough to spread light snow into areas
near the pa state line this afternoon through the first half of
tonight. The most persistent snow will fall in southern allegany
county given the expected track, with an inch or so of
accumulation possible.

The snow near the pa state line will move east of the area later
tonight. Meanwhile a mid level trough will begin to sharpen over the
central great lakes tonight, and this will approach our region by
12z Tuesday with increasing deep moisture and large scale ascent.

This will support an increasing chance of snow showers across
western ny and the north country very late tonight. The best chance
of snow showers before daybreak will be east of lake erie with some
lake enhancement beginning as lake induced equilibrium levels rise
to near 9k feet by 12z Tuesday. Any accumulations will be very light
through daybreak Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain below average, with highs in the upper 30s
today across lower elevations and low to mid 30s for higher terrain.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s on the lake plains of
western ny to the mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
As the cold front moves through on Tuesday morning, snow showers
will overspread the area, with continued lake enhancement
transitioning to lake effect Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
southeast of the lakes. An upper level trough axis will be over the
area on Tuesday afternoon and move through by the evening.

Widespread snow of around an inch is possible on Tuesday, with
additional light snow amounts from the lake effect. Highs on Tuesday
will occur in the late morning or early afternoon and reach the low
to mid 30s. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the teens
over the higher terrain east of lake ontario, and in the low to mid
20s elsewhere.

A clipper system will dive southeast across the northern great lakes
and to the st. Lawrence valley by mid morning on Wednesday, and with
it bring another cold front that will usher in the coldest air since
last winter. The clipper will bring with it some general light
synoptic snow, with some light lake effect snow following the
general light snow. Snow chances overall will increase from west to
east toward the eastern lake ontario area as the best synoptic
moisture and forcing will be in place there with the clipper passing
directly overhead. As the clipper exits the area, a large arctic
high centered over ontario will move southeast toward the upper
great lakes.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will likely bring the coldest
temperatures of the season and bottom out around the mid teens for
areas near the lakes, and in the single digits to low teens across
the higher terrain. For low temperatures on Wednesday night Thursday
morning, most areas will have their coldest temperatures since march
and february. As the area of arctic high pressure moves into the
northern great lakes, behind a departing upper level trough, cold
air advection that began on Wednesday will continue through
Wednesday night. The arctic high will be centered over wny by
Thursday afternoon.

850ts on Wednesday night will bottom out around -20c from wny to
n.C.Ny. If these 850ts come to fruition, it will be in the top 5
coldest 850ts recorded in the month of november for the buffalo
sounding location, where the coldest temperature per NWS archive was
-21c on november 21, 1987, with that number in jeopardy
of getting eclipsed on Thursday morning. With the very cold 850ts
across the area, some light lake effect snow showers will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High temperatures on
Thursday will be in the teens east of lake ontario, and in the low
to mid 20s across the rest of the area. High temperatures on
Thursday will be between 20-25 degrees below normal. Rochester and
buffalo could experience their top 5 coldest thanksgivings on
record.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Arctic high pressure over the area Thursday night will result in a
very cold if not bitter night. Temperatures will fall into the teens
to single digits above zero, with even a few readings near zero
or below for the western adirondacks region.

The arctic high will move east Friday allowing for a fair weather
day with temperatures moderating into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Precipitation chances will increase during the weekend as an advancing
warm front pushes into the region. Temperatures over the
weekend should warm to near normal with most highs in the 40s.

The moderating temperatures do not look to last long as longer range
guidance hints at troughing returning to the great lakes by late
next weekend into the start of the following week.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Low stratus will continue to produce MVFR CIGS with some ifr
across higher terrain from the western southern tier east across
the western finger lakes to points east of lake ontario.VFR
will prevail this morning with clearing reaching kiag-kbuf-kroc.

Some light snow may clip the southern tier near kelz this afternoon
through the first half of tonight with local ifr vsby as a weak wave
of low pressure moves by to the south of the area. Otherwise the
rest of the area will stay dry through much of tonight with any
leftover MVFR CIGS improving to mainlyVFR. A few snow showers will
develop late tonight as a trough approaches, especially east of lake
erie with some modest lake enhancement. This will produce areas of
ifr vsby and MVFR CIGS by early Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Areas of MVFR ifr in periods of
snow showers.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Marine
A weak trough will move east of the area this morning, with a brief
period of choppy conditions on lake ontario in the wake of the
front. Otherwise winds will be relatively light later today through
Tuesday morning. Another weak front will cross the eastern great
lakes Tuesday, and this may bring winds and waves to near small
craft advisory levels on lake ontario.

A stronger cold front will then cross the eastern great lakes
Wednesday. This will bring solid small craft advisory conditions to
both lakes, with potential for a brief period of gales on lake
ontario. The wind will last through Wednesday night before high
pressure builds into the eastern great lakes Thursday with
diminishing winds.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock zaff
short term... Sw
long term... Sw tma
aviation... Hitchcock zaff
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 30 mi48 min WSW 6 G 8 37°F 1021 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi36 min 39°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi48 min WSW 7 G 11 37°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 44 mi48 min SW 1.9 G 5.8 40°F 39°F2 ft1019.4 hPa (-0.5)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 49 mi48 min WSW 4.1 G 7 37°F 1019.6 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY41 mi54 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F28°F78%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4SE6SE6E3SE3SE4SE3S3CalmS3SW3S4SW4SW5W6W6W5W5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW7
1 day agoNW9NW11
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W7NW6NW4NW7NW5NW4NW3W3N4SW4W3W3SW3SW3SW3S3S3S3
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.