Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:03PM Monday November 20, 2017 1:03 AM EST (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 935 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 30 knots. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots until early evening...then becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southwest in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots early in the evening increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201711200915;;674302 FZUS63 KDTX 200235 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 935 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.20 inches, will continue to lift into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure, 30.30 inches, then builds across the Ohio Valley for the early part of the week. LHZ462>464-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200442
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1142 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Aviation
Low level warm and dry air advection should lift the strato CU field
northeast of the terminals by 06z, leaving just higher based clouds
through the morning. Wind speeds have dropped with some boundary
layer decoupling. An increasing southwest gradient during the course
of the morning will lead to a slow increase in the wind speeds
toward daybreak, with peak daytime heating supporting some gusts
over 20 knots Mon afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 333 pm est Sun nov 19 2017
discussion...

the embedded wave within northwest flow impacting the great lakes
today will lift to the east along with the main upper trough as it
moves into the northeastern us tonight. Replacing it will be the
north side of a high pressure building across the southern us. The
loss of synoptic forcing and winds backing to a more westerly
direction will help bring an end to the lake effect snow showers
later today. Clouds will begin to slowly across parts of the area as
dry air begins to take over throughout the night. With a few less
clouds and cold air in place, temperatures will sink a little lower
into the mid to upper 20s by tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow will see some warm air advection with mostly clear skies as
high pressure brings a dry start to the work week. Zonal flow at mid
levels with more southwest flow at lower levels will push the cold
air aloft to the east. Temperatures at 850mb will increase by around
14-15 c from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon resulting in high
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Pressure gradient will increase
slightly ahead of the next low pressure system to affect the great
lakes region. This will lead to an increase in winds during the
afternoon with a few gusts during the day to around 20-25 mph.

Height falls will begin to spread across the region as the low
pressure system digs across the western great lakes Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Southwest winds will stay elevated through
this time as the center of the surface low moves through southern
ontario. The upper trough gains amplitude into Tuesday across the
central great lakes as associated cold front sweeps through michigan.

Slight chance of rain will be possible ahead of the front with good
synoptic forcing and an increase in moisture, albeit still low.

Rain snow mix could be possible on the back edge of precipitation as
temperatures drop towards the evening. Winds will remain elevated
until lighter post frontal winds arrive in the evening.

High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday and remain in
control through Friday. This will bring a period of dry, calm
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 30s for the thanksgiving
holiday. Weak ridging will move across the region on Friday ahead of
a low pressure system tracking eastward through southern canada.

Increased southerly flow on Friday will help boost temperatures into
the 40s before the next chance of precipitation arrives Friday
night. With model solutions all showing the low tracking through
ontario, the better forcing for precipitation looks to stay mainly
north of SE michigan with higher chance for rain across the tri
cities and thumb. Warm advection Friday night should be enough to
keep precipitation all liquid before a cold front pushing through
the region early Saturday brings a return to northwest flow and cold
advection across the region next weekend.

Marine...

northwest winds will gradually decrease this evening into tonight
and back to a more westerly direction. That said, gusts to near 30
knots will be possible into early evening over northern parts of
lake huron. Small craft advisories along the nearshore waters, other
than near the tip of the thumb, will expire with this issuance, and
for these final two zones by mid evening after waves and remaining
wind gusts subside.

A gale watch remains in effect Monday night into Tuesday as winds
back further to the southwest and increase as low pressure tracks
across northern ontario and leads to an strong pressure gradient as
the trailing cold front approaches on Tuesday. Wind funneling up
saginaw bay looks as if it may be enough to bring gale force gusts
to the bay as well, so the watch has been extended for this area.

Northwest flow behind the aforementioned cold front may very well
lead to a period of gales into Tuesday night, at least over far
northern portions of lake huron.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for lhz362-
363-421-422-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Aa jd
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi64 min W 19 G 25 33°F 47°F1014.3 hPa (+1.5)
PSCM4 22 mi64 min W 8 G 9.9 29°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.3)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi46 min W 8.9 G 13 29°F 1013.3 hPa18°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi46 min W 7 G 11 29°F 1014.9 hPa16°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi46 min 30°F 1014.9 hPa
KP58 47 mi73 min W 7 G 14 30°F 1014 hPa18°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi69 minW 710.00 miOvercast28°F19°F68%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW19
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NW9NW11
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1 day agoSW8S6S5S4S4S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5N7N11
G15
N8N13
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N12N13N15
G20
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2 days agoN3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S6S8
G16
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S12S9S13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.