Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:47PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:14 AM EDT (06:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:53AMMoonset 2:01PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 1000 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Rest of tonight..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of rain and snow in the evening. Rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the late evening and overnight. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. Rain. Snow likely early in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. Snow early in the morning. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots until afternoon becoming light and variable. A chance of rain early in the morning. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463 Expires:201703230800;;928482 FZUS63 KDTX 230200 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1000 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.60 INCHES WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...STALLING OUT ON FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE OF 29.70 INCHES SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LHZ462>464-230800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230355
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Aviation
Slow eastward exit of expansive arctic high pressure will sustain a
stretch of favorable aviation conditions tonight and Thursday. The
accompanying high degree of stability ensures a clear sky through
the overnight period. Advancement of warmer mid level air into the
region will bring a thickening/lowering high based cloud throughout
Thursday. Warm air advection will eventually support a several hour
window for light rain development Thursday night. Uncertainty yet
in the degree of low level moistening during this time, simply
supporting an introductory lowerVFR mention at this stage. A more
significant reduction in conditions will be plausible by Friday
morning /particularly ptk northward/. Light winds under weak
gradient flow to become southeasterly Thursday. Strengthening
southwest flow just off the surface will introduce a low level wind
shear component Thursday night.

For dtw... Thickening cloud Thursday to carry CIGS above 5000 ft
through early Thursday evening. Lowering ceiling thereafter will
bring an increasing probability for sub-5000 ft CIGS Thursday night
/after 04z/.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in CIGS falling below 5000 ft after 04z Thursday night.

Prev discussion
Issued at 318 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017
discussion...

sprawling high pressure in place over the central great lakes, with
the center (1036-1038 mb) slow to exit southeast michigan tonight,
providing favorable radiating conditions under clear skies and dry
airmass in place, as surface dew pts reside in the single numbers
across most areas this afternoon. Still, with the shorter nights and
lack of snow cover, expecting mins to only bottom out in the lower
teens across most locations as dew pts come up, otherwise flint's
daily record low of 7 degrees would be in jeopardy.

Good warm advection pattern then setting up tomorrow into Friday,
with a surge of gulf moisture lifting into the state Thursday night,
as 850 mb dew pts rise in the high single numbers. Warm front and
strengthening low level jet (50+ knots) over the western ohio valley
moving into southeast michigan overnight expected to produce
showers, with an isolated thunderstorm not out of the question as
showalter index falls toward zero with decent mid level lapse rates.

The moisture/instability axis looks to be lifting north of the cwa
on Friday, and thus just a low chance of rain on Friday, mainly
north, and likely more from low clouds/drizzle as large upper level
ridge sits on top of the area with the cutoff/closed low over the
central plains. This is assuming the 12z nam/gfs moisture/saturation
indicated at 925 mb level is correct, otherwise could be looking at
temperatures pushing well into the 60s, potentially 70+ degrees at
detroit as 850 mb temps push toward 10 c.

Kicker system moving onshore of the west coast Saturday morning,
allowing for central plains system to head off to the northeast
toward the area over the weekend.

A frontal boundary draped west to east across southeast michigan on
Saturday will act as a focal point for showers throughout the day. A
sharp temperature gradient will exist along the boundary with
temperatures near 40 in the thumb region north of the boundary and
closer to 60 near the ohio border south of the boundary. While
uncertainty remains about the exact position of the boundary and
temperatures across southeast michigan on Saturday, enough warm air
will likely be in place for rain to be the predominant precip type.

Rain chances then increase on Sunday as the weakening low pressure
approaches southeast michigan bringing a better influx of moisture.

Drier conditions arrive briefly Sunday night into Monday as the low
pressure moves east of the region. Rain chances then return late
Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave crosses through lower michigan.

Temperatures look to remain mild early next week with highs in the
50s and lows in the 40s Sunday through Tuesday.

Marine...

large area of high pressure over the central great lakes region
tonight, leading to light and variable winds. This high will slide
to the east tomorrow, allowing for strengthening southerly winds, as
a warm front lifts into the area Thursday night. The warm air
streaming over the cold lakes is expected to promote stable low
level profiles, limiting wind speeds over lake huron to 25 to 30
knots. Winds will diminish on Friday as warm front stalls over lake
huron, and then sinks south as a cold front Friday night into
Saturday, resulting in increasing easterly flow as high pressure
builds over ontario, leading to long duration easterly flow over the
weekend.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Sf/jd
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 22 mi74 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 23°F 1034.5 hPa (-0.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 6 22°F 1033.5 hPa15°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi44 min WSW 4.1 G 6 20°F 1033.7 hPa10°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi44 min 21°F 1033.8 hPa
KP58 47 mi23 min S 2.9 20°F 1035.4 hPa15°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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E3
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--
SW1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi19 minS 510.00 miFair19°F14°F84%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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N7N7CalmNW6W3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3S3
1 day agoCalmNW4N7N4CalmCalmSW3W5W8NW10
G18
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G23
2 days agoS5SW3S7S7S8S7S9S8S8S9S7SW5W5W4NW4NW4NE5E4E4NE3CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.