Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:59 PM EST (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 10:52PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 940 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon. Rain likely until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the evening veering to the west in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots until early evening...then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning. Gusts to 30 knots. A chance of snow late in the afternoon. A chance of rain early in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
LHZ463 Expires:201812132115;;732765 FZUS63 KDTX 131440 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 940 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A compact low pressure system, 29.90 inches, continues to weak across the central Great Lakes early this morning. A strong area of high pressure, 30.50 inches, will build across Quebec while a low pressure system, 29.80 inches, pass south of the Great Lakes towards the east coast. This will result in southerly flow over the region Thursday and Friday. Winds will become northerly late Friday night into Saturday with the passage of a cold front. LHZ462>464-132115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 131944
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
244 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Discussion
Water vapor imagery from goes-16 early this afternoon shows a
somewhat complicated pattern as strong shortwave digging through
texas is attempting to cutoff from main flow, but remains connected
to some degree with the northern stream. The most notable feature
that will act in concert with energy lifting from the southern
system is a PV anomaly working into northern minnesota early this
afternoon. Models remain rather consistent in spreading an area of
rain into the region late this evening into the overnight hours as
features associated with these two players interact.

The main lift that will be inducing this precipitation is the result
of a coupled jet structure the tonight as the area falls within the
right entrance region of the upper jet pivoting around said northern
stream PV anomaly and the left exit region of the lead jet streak
lifting north after pivoting around what forms into an upper low
pressure system near the ark-la-tex region. The upper low within the
coupled region of these jets also becomes rather difluent for a time
before the jets merge and pass east of the area on Friday.

With the likelihood of precipitation high after midnight tonight
into early Friday over much of the forecast area (particularly north
of i-94), the biggest question will be precipitation type as mainly
clear to partly cloudy skies into this evening result in decent
radiational cooling and skin temperatures on the order of 30-32f.

This will allow the possibility for a period of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation tonight, mainly m-59 north. This is expected
to be very minor as low level temperatures moderate steadily into
the middle 30s as the rain overspreads the region owing to the fact
that there is no cold high pressure center positioned to the north
to maintain any sort of cold easterly low level feed back into the
area. There may also be a bit of snow mixed in over the far northern
saginaw valley where evaporative cooling along the northern edge of
main finger of precipitation, coupled with dynamic cooling as the
lift arrives, appears sufficient to allow a the very least a
period of rain snow at the surface.

Meanwhile, the far southern upper low is bypassed by the current
northern wave trough approaching the area. This will allow rain to
end on Friday as northern trough axis passes east of the area. The
big question then becomes how much this system lifts back northeast
as main jet stream core wraps up the eastern periphery of the low.

While it appears this system will still remain largely south of the
area this weekend, there is some connection to the next northern
stream shortwave which comes on shore over the pacific northwest on
Friday and encroaches on the northern great lakes late Saturday into
Saturday night. This connection, even in the most "aggressive" model
solutions, is not particularly tenable. So, at this point in the
forecast, the chance for any deformation precipitation setting up
over the area appear very low (and confined to far southern areas).

A ridge of higher pressure will edge into southern michigan Sunday
morning and afternoon which will bring dry weather as temperatures
peak in the upper-30s to lower-40s for a daytime high. A surface
cold front and shortwave aloft will then start to push through
Monday 00z - Monday 18z, noted by h850 temperatures dropping from an
average of 4c down to -7c. Precipitation chances are expected to
remain null as the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere remains very
dry during the passage of the front (pw of .2 inches), however, the
thermal response will diminish daytime highs down into the 30s for
both Monday and Tuesday.

A broad surface high pressure system will build behind the cold
front and will continue to provide dry weather through the midweek
period. Anticyclonic flow around the high will allow temperatures to
rebound back into the Wednesday into Thursday as the high settles
across the western atlantic.

The next chance for precipitation will then enter Thursday as a
shortwave strengthens and digs across the plains. Baroclinicity will
increase across the ohio valley and left exit jet streak dynamics
will strengthen across great lakes. Additional convergence will be
needed between long-range model runs to increase confidence
regarding precipitation Thursday as strength of the shortwave (and a
northern tracking low pressure system) differs between models.

Marine
High pressure centered to the east of the region will keep winds
light and southerly tonight. An area of showers will lift into the
region later tonight into Friday morning ahead of a cold front.

Winds will remain below 20 knots through this time while veering to
the southwest behind the front. Winds will then become northwesterly
Friday night and northeast by Saturday as trough passes to the north
of the lakes and high pressure builds across the region for the
weekend. This high will keep winds and waves minimized through the
weekend.

Hydrology
Widespread rain will overspread southeast michigan tonight, mainly
after midnight. The rain will persist through Friday morning. After
a brief window of possible freezing rain at the onset, a warming
thermal profile will ensure that the precip remains in the form of
all rain. Total rainfall amounts by Friday afternoon may reach a
third of an inch for some locations, with highest amounts mainly
north of m59.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1233 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions present as an area of clearing lifts north through
southern mi this afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate later this
evening after 00z as an area of rain lifts north through the region.

Current obs upstream validate guidance in bringing widespread MVFR
conditions to the region with a period of ifr likely in the heavier
rain as CIGS flirt with the 1kft threshold. Forecast ptype will be
for ra although it remains a possibility for a very brief period of
fzra at the onset. With temperatures hovering around the freezing
mark, will have to watch short term trends as the lead edge
approaches. Warmer temperatures at the detroit area sites will
likely keep precip as all rain throughout the event.

For dtw...VFR conditions with mainly cirrus will become MVFR ifr
after midnight as rain moves back into the area. Temperatures will
likely stay warm enough to mitigate any freezing rain potential at
the terminal, although a brief period may occur farther north
overnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling below 5000 ft before 00z. High after 00z.

* low for vsbys of 1 2 mile or less tonight.

* low for ptype of fzra tonight.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Dg am
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
aviation... ..Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 22 mi59 min Calm G 0 36°F 1021.3 hPa (+0.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi59 min E 4.1 G 4.1 36°F 33°F1020.7 hPa (-0.4)30°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi65 min SW 8 G 8.9 37°F 1020.8 hPa30°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi65 min 38°F 1020.8 hPa
KP58 47 mi68 min W 2.9 37°F 1021.4 hPa32°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI47 mi64 minN 07.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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E7SE4E7E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW7W3Calm
1 day agoW6W5W4W4W4W4CalmCalmSW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmSE4SE8SE6SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.