Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sanilac, MI

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Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 9:13PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 12:55 PM EDT (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:16PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201906192000;;732663 Fzus63 Kdtx 191400 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 1000 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A weak front across central lake huron and lower michigan settles slowly southward today reaching the west end of lake erie by evening. The next low pressure system moves along this front through indiana and ohio averaging 29.50 inches tonight and Thursday. These weather features bring a pattern of showers and scattered Thunderstorms mainly from saginaw bay southward and from today through Thursday. High pressure waiting across northern ontario builds southward across the central great lakes by Friday and holds into Saturday while a larger low pressure system develops across the plains and moves eastward during the weekend. Lhz363-462>464-192000- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 1000 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Scattered showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers early in the morning. A chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sanilac, MI
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location: 43.54, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191541
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1141 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Focus for this afternoon is centered on shower and thunderstorm
activity that will develop over portions of lower michigan. Questions
remain on most favored area for activity, but based on 12z dtx raob
and lack of sky cover, the atmosphere will destabilize late this
morning early afternoon over all of southeast michigan due to
diabatic daytime heating. The key dynamical support for thunderstorm
development appears to be a well defined 925-850mb frontogenesis axis
that will that develop remain fairly stationary along a line from
battle creek to owosso to lapeer. Some attempt will be made by this
fgen axis to sag southeastward into livingston oakland washtenaw
counties between 21-00z, before the influence of ohio valley low
pressure system pushes the low level fgen back north. Uncertainty
exists with how much activity can fire over the southern metro
detroit today as rap based soundings show a good subsidence based
capping layer persisting at 9000 ft agl. This capping layer does
match up to where it would be expected based on anticyclonic flow
trajectories of the ridging. Poor low to midlevel lapse rates will
significantly compromise instability, mlcapes today of around 500
j kg. No severe weather is expected this afternoon and tonight,
although water loading from a cell collapse may contribute to an
isolated wind gust of up to 40 mph. Main item to watch for will be
potential heavy rainfall with cell movement that is nearly stationary
or west to east at less than 20 mph. Most likely corridor for
showers and thunderstorms during this early period will be along near
the I 69 to m 49 corridors.

Prev discussion
Issued at 915 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
aviation...

a weak front settles slowly across central and southeast lower
michigan today. It becomes the focus for increasing coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms especially during the afternoon
as peak heating generates some instability. The greatest probability
for storms is expected to be in the fnt to ptk region which is about
where the surface wind shift will be during late afternoon into
early evening. Outside of any heavier showers and storms, conditions
remainVFR until later tonight when the front stalls near the ohio
border and low pressure rides west to east through indiana and ohio.

Showers increase coverage again during this time and the surface low
brings ifr to lifr ceiling and at least ifr visibility in rain and
fog lasting well into Thursday morning.

For dtw... Shallow MVFR fog dissipates quickly and leaves a few
pockets of disorganized clouds around 5 kft during the morning.

Ceiling is mostly above 5 kft during the afternoon as the front is
slow to move south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms also remain
across the northern fringes of d21 through late afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5 kft or less today, medium this evening, high
after midnight through Thursday morning.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion...

issued at 316 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
discussion...

upper level energy shortwave trough tracking through lake superior
today, with light southwest flow over lower michigan ahead of a cold
front transporting decent amount of moisture 850 mb theta-e axis
during the prime heating of the day into southeast michigan. However,
with 500 mb temps of -10 to -11 c, mlcapes only look to be
increasing to between 250-500 j kg (regional gem gfs) with mid level
lapse rates (700-500 mb) under 6 c km. NAM appears to be too
aggressive with instability, as raw surface dew pts rising to around
70 degrees does not look realistic. Even so, a high scattered-low
numerous coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms looks likely
with the weak low level convergence with the front possible weak
surface reflection tracking through. Slow movement will present a
heavy rain threat with pw values up to 1.5 inches. This moisture axis
looks to hold right into Thursday morning, and looks like a strong
jet MAX pv disturbance will track out of the southern plains and
reach the southern michigan border late tonight. So, despite the loss
of surface based instability overnight, with 850-700 mb
low circulation reaching along and just across the southern michigan
border, showers should spread into most of southeast michigan
overnight into tomorrow morning. With the rather slow movement and
strong mid level fgen forcing progged, heavy rain will be a concern
as there is a chance the enhanced forcing sets up across detroit
metro area (per nam), leading to some urban and small stream type
flooding. However, the local SREF weighted probabilistic guidance
suggests the chance for accumulated rainfall of 1 inch or greater is
only near 40 percent, and will pass on a flood watch.

Upper level ridge moving over the western great lakes on Friday will
keep southeast michigan dry with the northwest confluent flow and
surface ridge in place. 850 mb temps around 10 c supporting highs in
the 70s.

The forecast for the weekend remains complicated, and now there are
indications we may be trending dry. Active warm front of the
midwest will gradually lift north, leading to increasing chance of
shower possible thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday
morning. However, there is a growing consensus (00z euro icon) the
mcs which develops will track mostly south of the cwa, and upper
level ridging then builds over the central great lakes Saturday
afternoon. Height falls coming out of the rockies and spreading into
the central plains Saturday evening should allow for another
thunderstorm complex to develop over the midwest Saturday night, but
this complex could also track just south of the state. Throw in the
00z canadian solution, which is offering up an even more compelling
case for a dry weekend, as the massive upper level low over eastern
canada exerts a greater influence. Confidence is not high, and
lowered the likely pops generated by nbm Saturday afternoon evening
into chance category. Keeping with the drier lean in the forecast,
there is a pretty good chance maxes end up warmer than the outgoing
forecast for Saturday Sunday.

Marine...

a weak front across central lake huron and lower michigan settles
slowly southward during the day with little marine consequence other
than scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near
lake st clair and western lake erie from mid afternoon into early
evening. The pressure field remains weak resulting in light
southwest wind shifting north outside of any storms as the front
moves south of lake erie by evening. A low pressure system moves
along the front across indiana and ohio and brings greater coverage
of showers tonight through Thursday along with a moderate NE wind.

Higher stability across the colder open waters of lake huron is
expected to limit wind gusts to around 20 knots and hold waves just
below advisory threshold. Saginaw bay is the possible exception
where the water temperature is considerably warmer. The low pressure
system exits eastward Thursday night and allows weak high pressure
to build across the region from northern ontario. This brings a
break in rainfall and lighter wind over marine areas while the next
low pressure system organizes over the plains and moves eastward
during the weekend.

Hydrology...

a weak front moving slowly through the area brings scattered showers
to the area today. Showers become more numerous this afternoon south
of i-69 as daytime heating produces instability. Limited duration of
any heavier showers or thunderstorms holds average rainfall totals
to a quarter inch or less from noon to midnight tonight.

After a short break during the evening, a low pressure system moves
from west to east across indiana and ohio along the front stalled
south of the border. This system has potential for locally heavy
rainfall up to about the i-96 696 corridor and most likely from
about 3 am tonight to 3 pm Thursday. Rainfall totals average three
quarter inch in this area with pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible
depending on location of repeated downpours or thunderstorms. This
may lead to short-duration flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas and subsequent rises in area rivers and streams given the
rainy conditions of recent days.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for miz048.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 5 mi55 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 59°F 56°F1008.9 hPa (-0.6)
PSCM4 22 mi55 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 61°F 1027.1 hPa (-0.3)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 33 mi61 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 60°F 58°F1009.4 hPa56°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 39 mi61 min S 5.1 G 6 75°F 1008.3 hPa59°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 41 mi61 min 74°F 1008.3 hPa
KP58 47 mi64 min 4.1 59°F 1008.9 hPa56°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI47 mi57 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F59°F54%1008.8 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmNE5NE6NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3CalmSW5
1 day agoNE3NE4N7E6NE7NE7NE6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE3
2 days agoNE4N4N4N5N3N6NE5N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmN3CalmCalmN5NE4NE5NE4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.