Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whitehall, NY

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Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:37PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whitehall, NY
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location: 43.55, -73.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 181045
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
645 am edt Tue jun 18 2019

Synopsis
A disturbances moving along a stalled front south of the region
will bring clouds and a chance of showers today, mainly south
of albany. Shower chances diminish tonight, but increase again
on Wednesday as some airmass showers and thunderstorms are
possible. A storm system moving through the mid atlantic states
may bring a steady rainfall Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 632 am edt, skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures in
the 50s and 60s. Winds are light an variable. Large rain shield
with embedded heavier showers is just reaching the eastern
catskills. Expect the rain to overspread the southern third to
half of forecast area this morning and continuing before moving
east of forecast area later today or this evening. Mainly cloudy
skies forecast today although northern herkimer, hamilton,
warren and washington counties may see some breaks.

Shortwave that is over western pa, will move east. Shortwave
will be accompanied by weak warm advection and some
frontogenesis, mainly across the southern third of the albany
forecast area. Pwats rise to over 1.8 inches on kpou sounding.

Kpou model soundings indicate skinny cape, more associated with
heavy rain then severe weather. Storm equilibrium level just
above -20 c so isolated thunder is possible as are some locally
heavy downpours.

From albany northward, shower chances will be less but a few
showers are possible today, especially in the afternoon. Highs
today mainly in the 70s with 60s in the hill towns.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
There is a general consensus for a dry period Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning due to subsidence on backside of
shortwave. There could be some lingering isolated showers and
persistent cloud cover over southwest parts of our region. Lows
Tuesday night mainly in the 50s with 60s in the hudson valley.

There could be some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon due to daytime heating and temperatures
reaching convective temperatures in a slowly increasingly humid
airmass. Highs Wednesday in the 70s to around 80.

For Wednesday night, things should calm down again as diurnal
instability wanes. There may be a period of clearing before
clouds increase towards daybreak ahead of the next system
approaching from the great lakes. Lows Wednesday night mainly in
the 60s with 50s in the upland valleys.

Long term Thursday through Monday
The extended forecast period will begin with a strong low pressure
system approaching from the great lakes region on Thursday before
exiting on Friday. Mid level ridging and surface high pressure will
build in for the majority of the weekend before another disturbance
threatens the region for the beginning of next week.

Thursday and Friday... An upper level short wave trough will be
approaching the region Thursday morning with an anomalously deep
surface low tracking from the ohio valley to the east northeast.

There has been some oscillation of the low track from run to run of
the deterministic model suite so confidence is somewhat low at this
time with respect to where the warm and cold fronts associated with
the low will setup. This will be crucial for the amount of
instability that will be able to materialize and potential
thunderstorm development on Thursday afternoon. There have been
signals for a robust instability gradient between i-90 and the
southern border of ny. If instability is able to build, there will
be decent kinematics and low-level forcing (theta-e gradient of 20-
25 k 400km) to work with so have mentioned a chance of thunder in
the forecast for Thursday afternoon evening. There could be multiple
rounds of rain with pwats between 1.5-2 inches as well so there is
also potential for heavy rain. Guidance is suggesting between 1-2
inches of rain for much of the region. The low takes its time
exiting to our east so some rain showers will likely linger across
the region Friday morning and taper off from west to east as we head
into Friday afternoon. Conditions will dry out by Friday evening and
there could even be a few peeks of Sun before sunset. There will be
a strong pressure gradient in place (for june) across the region as
the low departs to our east and high pressure builds in from the
great lakes region. This will lead to some gusty NW winds during
Friday afternoon with mixing potential into 25-30 kt winds around
800 hpa. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be near normal with
valley regions topping out in the mid-to-upper 70s and the higher
elevations climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will be
comfortable in the 50s 60s Thursday night and upper 40s mid 50s
Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday... Continuous mid and upper level height rises
will be in place across the region on Saturday and Sunday resulting
in subsidence and a 1015-1020 mb high over the northeast. Expect
sunny conditions and warm summer temperatures this weekend! Low and
mid level temperatures will be quite warm, this combined with height
rises and widespread subsidence suggests potential for temperatures
above what guidance is showing now. Therefore have bumped
temperatures across the board by a few degrees for the latter part
of the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be near normal in the mid to
upper 70s, with highs on Sunday climbing into the low 80s. Lows will
be pleasant in the 50s.

Monday and Tuesday... Another wrinkle in the synoptic flow will
bring back a chance for rain Monday and Tuesday. Guidance seems to
be in decent agreement that a cold front will swing through the
region Monday into Tuesday, but the exact timing is uncertain at
this time. Have gone with chance pops for most of the region on
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures Monday will continue to be warm in
the upper 70s low 80s. Temperatures will cool slightly behind the
cold front with highs generally in the 70s for Tuesday. Low
temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Rain will fall along a frontal boundary to the south of the taf
sites today through the early afternoon hours today. This will bring
clouds and showers to the region, especially at kpou and kpsf. The
best chance for showers will be from 12z to 19z approximately at
kpou and kpsf. Some light rain showers could make their way up to
kalb as well, while kgfl should remain dry. Showers will taper off
this afternoon.

Vfr conditions are expected at kgfl and kalb throughout today, with
kalb possibly dropping to MVFR CIGS vsbys if rain showers make it
that far north. Kpou kpsf will generally experience MVFR conditions
with rain fog resulting in ifr CIGS at times. This has been handled
with tempos.

Winds will remain light and variable throughout the day and become
calm at all TAF sites later tonight. There will be potential for fog
at all TAF sites tonight which could deteriorate flying conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
A disturbance moving along a stalled front south of the region
will bring a chance of showers through the day today, with best
chances south of the capital region where an isolated
thunderstorm is also possible. Shower chances diminish tonight,
but increase again on Wednesday as some airmass showers and
thunderstorms are possible. A storm system moving through the
mid atlantic states may bring a steady rainfall Thursday into
Friday.

Rh values will exceed 45 percent through Wednesday with near
100 percent Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Winds will be east southeast at less than 10 mph Tuesday. Winds
Tuesday night will be light and variable. On Wednesday, winds
will be south to southwest at 10 mph or less.

Hydrology
Forecast rainfall over the next 7 days across the albany
hydrologic service area is around 1.5 inches with higher point
totals possible where thunderstorms occur.

A disturbance moving along a stalled front south of the region
will bring a chance of showers through today, with best chances
south of the capital district where an isolated thunderstorm is
also possible. Any thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours
which may cause some ponding of water in urban, low lying and
poor drainage areas.

Another wave of low pressure may bring a widespread soaking
rainfall Thursday into Friday, but the rain is expected to
cause only within bank rises on the main stem rivers.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service ahps
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd
near term... Snd
short term... Snd
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Cebulko
fire weather... Snd
hydrology... Snd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY18 mi30 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds61°F55°F81%1014.8 hPa
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT24 mi27 minESE 510.00 miOvercast60°F52°F75%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5E3CalmCalm3SE443S7S6S7S7SE4CalmCalmE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3Calm
1 day agoS7S6S6S4SE4S6S4S6SW5SE4N5N3CalmN3CalmN5N4N4CalmNW6N5N8CalmN4
2 days ago----SW8S10
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SW9SW4S8SW9S5S6S7S64

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Tue -- 12:42 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:35 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-00.92.33.74.75.45.54.83.72.71.60.4-0.4-0.30.82.13.13.84.13.72.92.21.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:10 PM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     4.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.101.12.63.94.95.55.54.73.62.61.50.2-0.5-0.112.23.23.84.13.62.82.11.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.