Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barker, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:36PM Sunday March 26, 2017 5:13 AM EDT (09:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:29AMMoonset 5:03PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 449 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely early. A chance of rain showers this afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers early...then rain. A chance of showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots. Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:201703261515;;097534 FZUS61 KBUF 260849 GLFLO OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ONTARIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 449 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ONTARIO .SYNOPSIS...A 30.6 INCH HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT TO THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. MEANWHILE A 29.8 INCH LOW OVER NEAR WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHILE PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE. A WAVY COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A 30.5 INCH HIGH THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOZ062-261515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barker, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.55, -78.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 260839
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
439 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary near the mason dixon line this early Sunday
morning, will lift northward as a warm front across new york state
today. Scattered rain showers this morning and early afternoon will
be followed by a brief break before another wave of rain showers
passes across the region late this afternoon and overnight. Another
cold front may bring additional scattered rain showers to the region
Tuesday before an area of high pressure brings drier air, cooler
temperatures and a return to sunshine mid to late week.

Near term /through tonight/
This early Sunday morning an area of low pressure is found over far
western illinois with a stationary front extending eastward towards
the mason dixon line. Water vapor imagery displays an upper level
low spiraling over the surface low. Regional radars display an area
of light rain showers, associated with weak isentropic lift across a
portion of wny. To the east a large area of high pressure is over
quebec, and though this feature has brought below freezing
temperatures to the eastern lake ontario region this morning, it has
also supplied drier air, such that activity over wny should largely
fizzle before reaching the eastern lake ontario region. Thus will
maintain no headlines this morning for any freezing rain.

There will continue to be weak isentropic lift today that may yield
a few rain showers through this afternoon, but for most areas this
afternoon will become dry. There may even be a few sunny breaks
across wny. Whether or not we see any sunshine, the veering winds
from northeast to southeast today will bring a downslope flow, such
that lower elevations of wny should warm well into the 50s, with
lower 60s possible along the lake erie shoreline.

Tonight the low pressure that was over illinois this morning will
advance across michigan tonight, nearing far NW lake ontario by
tomorrow morning. This low is not very deep, and since it is nearly
vertically stacked, it will remain nearly steady in pressure (neither
deepening nor filling) through the night. Falling rain this evening
will stabilize the lower levels, and with no strong downward
momentum, a 40 knot LLJ will not mix down to the surface.

A second round of rain showers will reach wny late this afternoon.

As both a surface low, and upper level low near the region, it will
bring an increase in moisture, that when coupled with both diffluent
flow aloft, and low level convergence on the nose of a 40 knot LLJ a
batch of rain showers will form and cross the region. There will be
a convective element to these showers, with MUCAPE values reaching
several hundred j/kg and tt values topping 50c. Will include a
mention of thunder for this evening across our southern two tier of
counties. This convective nature will also hold us back from going
anything over 90 pops for tonight.

The southeast winds will veer to southerly through the night. This
wind direction should maintain mild temperatures in the favorable
downslope areas along lake erie, and the lake plains/genesee valley
where overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 40s. Some of
the interior so. Tier locations, as well as the finger lakes and
eastern lake ontario region will drop back into the lower 40s, and
possibly upper 30s east of lake ontario.

Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/
A shortwave will track from western new york to new england on
Monday. The best lift will be ahead of the 500 mb trough axis, with
steady rain lasting into Monday morning east of lake ontario. Even
here rainfall amounts will be light, averaging about a tenth of an
inch. Otherwise, precipitation will taper off showers from west to
east. By Monday afternoon, expect fair weather across most of
western new york with pleasantly warm temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Scattered showers will linger across the eastern lake
ontario region, limiting highs to the upper 40s.

The region will be between systems briefly Monday evening, with weak
mid-level ridging keeping it dry. Up until this point, model
guidance is in good agreement in timing the initial shortwave but
guidance diverges a bit after this. There is general agreement a mid-
level wave will cross ohio Monday night, but the northern extent of
showers with this wave is still in question. This is likely to bring
showers to the region, with model consensus centered around the
Tuesday morning timeframe. These should only last a few hours, with
rainfall amounts averaging a quarter inch or less.

Showers should end by Tuesday afternoon across far western new york,
which should allow temperatures to rebound a bit. Highs will range
from lower 60s across the western southern tier to the upper 40s
across the eastern lake ontario region where showers should last
through the afternoon hours.

An upper level trough will settle across southern quebec on Tuesday
night while a northerly flow develops behind the departing surface
low. This will bring a brief shot of cooler air to the region, with
temperatures falling into the 30s Tuesday night. There may be some
light upslope enhanced showers. These may mix with snow across the
north county, but no accumulation is expected.

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/
The very lengthy period of unsettled weather will finally come to an
end by Wednesday as a mid level trough digs southeast across quebec
and forces the frontal zone well south of our area. This will bring
an end to any lingering showers by Wednesday morning, but will also
deliver another push of cooler air into our region. The GFS is far
colder Wednesday than the ECMWF or gem with its more amplified and
southerly trough position. Have followed a ecmwf/gem weighted
consensus with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower
50s on Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will build across quebec Wednesday night and
Thursday with a ridge extending down into the eastern great lakes
and new england. This will provide a continuation of dry and cool
weather with highs in the 40s again Thursday and lows Wednesday
night and Thursday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most.

Model guidance diverges significantly by Friday and Saturday. The
gfs continues to suppress the next system well south of our area
with the moisture and forcing moving through the southeast states.

Similar to yesterday's 12z guidance, the 00z ECMWF and canadian gem
are vastly different, taking a surface low through the central great
lakes. Have continued to lean towards the ecmwf/gem consensus for
this period with rain chances increasing Friday through Saturday.

Temperatures will begin to rebound if this farther north low track
verifies, with highs back in the 50s by Saturday.

Aviation /09z Sunday through Thursday/
For the 06z tafs pockets of ifr/MVFR CIGS are found, especially to
the south of lake ontario where a moist, northeast flow has created
a deck of low stratus. This activity should improve to MVFR/vfr
towards sunrise, as the deeper low level moisture decreases some. A
wave of scattered rain showers will pass across the TAF sites
through the next 12 hours, with only kart containing low
possibilities of any freezing rain.

As winds continue to veer today, the northeast winds will become
east, then southeast which should bring a period ofVFR flight
conditions to the region through the afternoon hours.

Another wave of rain with likely MVFR/ifr or lower flight conditions
will reach wny this late afternoon and evening as a stalled frontal
boundary to the south lifts northward as a warm front. This activity
will pass across the region tonight. CIGS will likely lower to ifr
across the higher terrain of SW nys tonight, while the lower
elevations on a southerly, downslope flow will likely on lower to
MVFR within rain shower activity.

Outlook...

Monday... MVFR/ifr to start in rain showers, then improving in p.M.

Tuesday... MVFR/ifr CIGS with periods of rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Marine
Northeast winds will continue today across the lower great lakes,
with a strong breeze and increasing wave heights continuing the
small craft advisory on the western waters of lake ontario.

Later today and tonight winds will veer to southeast and then
southerly as an area of low pressure tracks across the central
great lakes and towards NW lake ontario. As these winds veer,
they will increase some on the eastern half of lake ontario,
such that low end SCA wind thresholds will be met. Will issue a
sca for the eastern waters for late this afternoon through
tonight.

This area of low pressure will track north of lake ontario Monday,
and in its weaken state, and warm air over the cold lake waters,
both winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for loz042-
043.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Monday for loz044-045.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Apffel
long term... Apffel/hitchcock
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 16 mi74 min ENE 16 G 19 36°F 1026.1 hPa
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 31 mi74 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 36°F 1024.4 hPa (-2.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 39 mi44 min 36°F 1023.7 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 49 mi44 min NE 9.9 G 13 37°F 1022.3 hPa35°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
NE10
G14
NE11
G15
NE5
G13
NE8
G16
NE14
G17
NE12
G18
NE9
G14
NE9
G15
E9
G13
NE10
G14
E8
G13
NE9
G16
E9
G18
E7
G17
E9
G13
E12
G21
E10
G15
NE12
G20
E9
G18
E8
G15
E12
G16
E11
G17
E8
G14
NE6
G13
1 day
ago
S15
S10
G13
S7
E4
G7
SE5
S5
SW3
SW9
SW6
SW7
S5
SW11
G15
SW20
SW12
S11
SW9
S3
G6
NE13
G16
N13
G18
NE7
G14
E6
G10
NE4
G9
NE7
G10
N8
2 days
ago
SE3
SE4
SE3
E1
SE2
S1
SW4
W5
W5
W6
W6
SW3
W3
NW2
NW5
E4
G7
E7
G12
E10
G14
E10
G14
E5
G9
SE5
G8
SE3
SE1
SE1

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY35 mi21 minENE 1310.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrNE9E12NE12NE12NE11NE14NE12E13E9E12
G18
E14E14E13E15
G22
E11E15E12E13E14
G22
E12E13
G20
E15E11
G20
E11
1 day agoS3S4S4S10S7S6S7SW9SW14
G22
SW17
G27
W26
G33
SW18
G25
W15
G25
SW12W11W5NE12
G18
NE15NE8E9NE5NE6NE6NE9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW43--SW3S7W3NW3SE3CalmNE9E7E7SE9SE6SE5SE3SE4SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.