Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barker, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:03PM Thursday August 24, 2017 1:02 AM EDT (05:02 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 307 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers early. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of waterspouts late in the morning. A chance of showers late in the morning. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:201708240315;;284086 FZUS61 KBUF 231907 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 307 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.2 inch low over central Quebec will slowly spin east across Quebec through tonight...then will weaken and exit across Labrador on Thursday. A 30.2 inch high will then build from near Lake Superior Thursday to the Central Great Lakes Friday and the Lower Lakes on Saturday...before drifting to the Saint Lawrence Valley on Sunday. LOZ062-240315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barker, NY
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location: 43.55, -78.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240258
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1058 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
An large upper level trough over the great lakes will make for cool
and mainly dry weather across the region through the rest of the
week. A few spotty light showers will remain possible at times
through Friday morning... Before high pressure then brings dry
weather from Friday afternoon right on through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As expected, showers have dissipated with the loss of diurnal
heating and the passage of an upper level vorticity lobe across the
region. Surface high pressure is building into the region, and skies
have cleared out in the wake of the departing showers. With the
clearing skies, radiational cooling will cause temperatures tonight
will drop to the upper 40s in the higher terrain to near 60 closer
to the lakeshores.

While the night should start out clear, cloud cover will begin to
increase starting in the late overnight early morning period as the
next spoke of vorticity and shortwave behind the upper level low
over quebec approaches the area. The increasing vorticity advection
will be in conjunction with increased lake instability, as 850 temps
falling to +6c support equilibrium levels in excess of 10kft. With
this increased vorticity advection and enhanced lake instability, we
will see a chance for showers by the morning commute. Cloud cover
and the best chance for showers will increase primarily over the
south shore of lake ontario during the late overnight early morning
time period.

Thursday, the shortwave approaching from the central great lakes
along with vorticity will generate some forcing for the area and
therefore going with chance pops for most of the buf cwa.

Additionally some increased moisture as suggested by 18z GFS and nam
support at least chance pops. Best forcing from the shortwave and
vorticity should remain south and east of the buf CWA as it
continues to move south into pa and the mid-atlantic. Current
upstream temperatures in the central great lakes range from the low
to mid 60s and that slightly cooler air will advect into the area
on Thursday when highs for the region will mostly range from the mid
to upper 60s... Which is more reminiscent of temps for mid-late
september.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
Thursday night lake effect rainshowers will develop southeast
of lakes erie and ontario in the cold northwest flow. Overnight
lows will range from the upper 40s across the interior southern
tier and the north country to the mid 50s along the lake shores.

By Friday morning the lake effect rain showers will be waning as
drier air builds across the region. This should occur before sunrise
off lake erie and during the early morning off lake ontario...

followed by increasing amounts of sunshine during the afternoon.

Highs will continue to be about five to ten degrees cooler than
normal, struggling to get within a few degrees of 70.

Expect mainly clear skies Friday night as surface high pressure
builds into the eastern great lakes. Lows dropping into the low to
mid 40s across the interior sections and north country to the low
50s near the lakes.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will be anchored over the northeast this weekend, with
a cool NW flow aloft providing for comfortable levels of humidity
and just fair weather afternoon cumulus. The upper level trough will
exit Monday... And we'll be within a quasi-zonal flow aloft through
the remainder of the period with a upper level cut off low over the
midwest. We should hold onto our dry pattern through at least
Tuesday, if not Wednesday depending upon how quickly eastward this
upper level low advances.

The end of the month will finish with comfortable late summer
temperatures... Near the average of mid 70s... And dewpoints will be
comfortable, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Nights may
become cool, with mid 40s possible early in the period across
interior valleys.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
With the last of the showers diminishing,VFR conditions should
prevail through much of the night, with clearing skies and light
winds allowing for the development of valley fog in the southern
tier, potentially affecting kjhw.

With a seasonably cool airmass moving overhead, and light nnw flow
off of lake ontario, it is possible that we will see some lake-
enhanced showers develop along the lake ontario shoreline late
tonight, with isolated to scattered showers developing farther
inland during the day on Thursday, as another shortwave drops south
across the great lakes. Outside of any showers, expect fairly
widespread sct-bkn CIGS to develop by 18z, again courtesy of
lingering moisture and cool air aloft, however CIGS should remain
vfr outside of any showers.

Outlook... Thursday night...VFR. Area of ifr in valley fog in the
southern tier late.

Friday... A chance of morning showers southeast of the lakes... OtherwiseVFR.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure building in from the midwest has caused winds and
waves to diminish below advisory levels this evening, and the last
of the advisories have been dropped at this time. With high pressure
remaining in place through the weekend, expect tranquil conditions
on the lakes to persist for the next several days.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Sw wood
short term... Levan
long term... Thomas
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 16 mi62 min W 16 G 22 65°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 31 mi62 min WNW 14 G 19 66°F 1013.9 hPa (+1.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 39 mi44 min 62°F 1015 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 49 mi44 min NW 8.9 G 12 63°F 1013.9 hPa52°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY35 mi69 minW 510.00 miFair58°F48°F72%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW7W9W8W8W6W8W10W11W12W14
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1 day agoS8S10S8SW8SW11SW13SW14SW18
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2 days agoE4E3CalmCalmE3SE3S7SW5S7SW11SW9SW4S5S9SW9S8S8SW11S6S5S5S4CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.