Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 12:37 AM   Moonset 8:52 AM

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LOZ062 Expires:202309182045;;855316 Fzus71 Kbuf 181847 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 247 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz042-043-062-182045- 247 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from the niagara river to hamlin beach - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the western end of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Ontario beach, thirty mile point, youngstown, niagara river, ontario on the lake, olcott, hamlin beach, wilson, Sunset beach, and fort niagara.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
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lat - .lon 4363 7869 4363 7796 4345 7796 4342 7773 4332 7755 4336 7735 4336 7697 4327 7697 4328 7735 4324 7756 4334 7776 4336 7795 4332 7795 4334 7853 4323 7905 4345 7920

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 291329 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 929 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal boundary will stall over our area today, with afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of the boundary to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. While there may be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm well south of Buffalo and Rochester, most areas will be rain free. Temperatures this week will average well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
It will remain unseasonably mild and rather humid across the bulk of western New York today...while cooler more seasonable conditions will be found across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Once an area of moderately heavy showers exits Jefferson and Lewis counties this morning...the vast majority of the region should be rainfree today.

As for the dynamics supporting the above...a strong mid level ridge will be centered directly over our region today. This will largely suppress any widespread shower activity over the western counties...
but a stalled frontal boundary over the Southern Tier could be enough to help focus some widely separated showers and thunderstorm activity over the Srn Tier and Upper Genesee valley within a diurnally destabilized airmass this afternoon.

Max temps today will range from the mid 50s across the Thousand Islands region to near 80 for portions of the Srn Tier. For the latter...enjoy.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to our northwest where showers and storms associated with the approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger convection
Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front will move east of the area Tuesday night, causing showers to diminish across the North Country Tuesday evening.
Then, mostly dry weather is expected across western New York overnight.

Surface high pressure will then push across the region Wednesday through Thursday supporting dry weather for the middle portion of this week. Temperatures will remain above normal for early May, with highs in the 70s each day and cooler conditions along the shorelines of the Lakes.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing northeast across the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario, Canada Thursday night.
While surface high pressure will lie across the region Thursday night into Friday, the aforementioned low pressure will support a warm front to sweep north across the Great Lakes. While this frontal passage may bring a few showers to the region, the forecast area will primarily remain dry Thursday night through Friday.

As this front continues to exit northeast, its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday night. There continues to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes Sunday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place today...although localized IFR to MVFR cigs will stay in place until about 15z from KBUF and KIAG to KROC. The only fly in the ointment for today will be widely separated thunderstorms over parts of the western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee valley during the peak heating of the day.

Showers will approach the area from the west tonight with increasing chances for rain and cigs lowering to 3-4k feet from west to east late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario today where Small Craft headlines are in place. Winds will diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few days.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043.

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