Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 1:24 AM   Moonset 10:04 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LOZ062 Expires:202309182345;;601801 Fzus71 Kbuf 182241 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 641 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz030-042-062-182345- 641 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Lake ontario from the mouth of the niagara river to hamlin beach - . The lower niagara river - .
at 639 pm edt, doppler radar indicated several showers and possible Thunderstorms over the western third of lake ontario, capable of producing waterspouts. This activity was moving southeast at 10 knots.
locations impacted include - . Thirty mile point, youngstown, niagara river, olcott, wilson, Sunset beach, and fort niagara.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
showers and Thunderstorms in this environment can produce waterspouts with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4363 7867 4363 7797 4333 7798 4334 7811 4334 7853 4325 7894 4324 7906 4345 7920

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 301414 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1014 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A slow moving cold front will make its way across the region this afternoon and evening while generating some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be east of the Genesee valley. fair dry weather will then return later tonight and persist through at least Friday morning. Temperatures will remain solidly above normal for the foreseeable future.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A negatively tilted mid level trough will exit the Upper Great Lakes to central Ontario this afternoon...while an associated cold front will slowly cross our forecast area through the first half of tonight. While there will be a few more hours of enjoyable sunshine over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions...clouds have already thickened ahead of the front across the western counties. In fact as of late morning...showers are blossoming over the far western counties.

The showers will become more widespread during the midday and afternoon...and with the help of some diurnally induced instability...there may even be a few thunderstorms. The greatest chance for any storms will be east of the Genesee valley with any storm having the potential of producing locally heavy rain to the tune of a half inch
Otherwise
basin average rainfall should be a tenth of an inch or less.

The showers will taper off from west to east late this afternoon and evening
While the showers will come to an end
a light flow aloft will enable much of the cloud cover to persist for the greater part of tonight. The exception to this will be across the Southern Tier where clearing seen on VSB/IR imagery over northwest Ohio should make its way into the area.

The clearing will continue Wednesday morning...as a progressive mid level shortwave ridge and associated weak sfc high will cross our forecast area. The fair dry weather on Wednesday will be accompanied by max temps that will range from the mid 60s across the Eastern Lake Ontario region to the low and mid 70s over the western counties.

A compact shortwave will pass by to our north Wednesday night. This will drive a moisture starved cold front through our region with nothing more than patchy clouds and subtle wind shift to mark the occasion.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure centered to our north will nose southwards across the region on Thursday. This will support fair dry weather Thursday and Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing north across the Upper Midwest into Ontario, Canada on Friday.
Bountiful warm moist air will continue to advect into the region Friday, where a few afternoon showers will be possible.

As this surface low continues to progress northward across Canada, its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday. There continues to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes Sunday night thorugh Monday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this morning with cigs trending down to MVFR then IFR. An upstream cold front will slowly cross the region today with periodic light to moderate showers. A few thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is low in coverage and location.

Outlook...

Tonight...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or less. There will periodic showers or thunderstorms today before dry weather returns for the mid week period.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Buffalo, NY,