Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 2:50 PM   Moonset 2:32 AM

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LOZ062 Expires:202309182345;;601801 Fzus71 Kbuf 182241 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 641 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz030-042-062-182345- 641 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Lake ontario from the mouth of the niagara river to hamlin beach - . The lower niagara river - .
at 639 pm edt, doppler radar indicated several showers and possible Thunderstorms over the western third of lake ontario, capable of producing waterspouts. This activity was moving southeast at 10 knots.
locations impacted include - . Thirty mile point, youngstown, niagara river, olcott, wilson, Sunset beach, and fort niagara.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
showers and Thunderstorms in this environment can produce waterspouts with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4363 7867 4363 7797 4333 7798 4334 7811 4334 7853 4325 7894 4324 7906 4345 7920

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FXUS61 KBUF 181849 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 249 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon inland from the lakes. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal.
Unsettled weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Breaks developing in cloud cover the afternoon across western New York. Instability will continue to build inland from the lakes with scattered coverage of showers and isolated thunder. The best chance for convection will be from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes. Overall cell motion will be slow within a weak flow so heavy downpours are certainly possible.

Any lingering convection will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. After that, quiet and dry weather will take hold. Lingering low-level moisture due to the will allow for some fog formation overnight, especially across western New York. Expect overnight lows in the 50s.

After some early morning fog and stratus, mainly dry weather is expected Sunday as a mid and upper level ridge starts to build overhead. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary in place. High temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid and upper level ridge will become anchored over our region this period, with mainly fair weather and building warmth.

A shortwave trough will ripple through this ridge over Canada Monday night, possibly bringing a shower down into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Otherwise moisture left behind this shortwave may aid in development of a few spot showers or thunderstorms along a strengthening lake breeze boundary Tuesday afternoon. Subsidence with the ridge aloft should keep any activity isolated.

The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. By Tuesday, 850 hPa temperatures of +14 to +16 will yield widespread 80s, and perhaps a few 90 degree readings in the Genesee Valley. The exception will be northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario where the southwest flow off the cool Lake waters will hold back the heat for metro areas of Buffalo and northern Watertown.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure tracking from Lake Superior to Hudson Bay will place our region in the warm sector for much of the day Wednesday. With SSW downslope flow will hedge on the warm side of guidance with highs 85 to 90 across lower elevations, including Buffalo and Rochester. 12Z model consensus brings a cold front through Thursday evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday night with the frontal passage.

Possibly a lingering shower behind the front on Thursday with afternoon temperatures still slightly above normal despite the cold frontal passage. After this, weak high pressure will build across the region resulting in mainly rain-free weather Thursday night through Friday night. A secondary cold front will approach the region Thursday night, and may pass through all or part of the area Friday and into the weekend. Lower confidence in temperature forecast for this time period, with forecast highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s representing a consensus of model guidance. These could be 5 or more degrees warmer or cooler depending on the position of the front. Chances of showers with the front will remain low, but a stray shower can't be ruled out on Saturday.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will develop this afternoon across Western NY. The convection will be mainly focused across the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes, with low confidence in any storm impacting any TAF site.

Any lingering convection will diminish with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated air mass will continue over the lower Great Lakes tonight allowing for fog and stratus to develop over the lakes. Poor visibility conditions may redevelop and become widespread tonight into Sunday morning on Lake Erie and the western end of Lake Ontario with light flow.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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