Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 8:01PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 5:31 PM EDT (21:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 342 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy early in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of light rain in the morning. A chance of light snow until late afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201703290315;;224309 FZUS53 KDTX 281942 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 342 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ422-290315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 281914
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
314 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Discussion
12z dtx sounding revealed stout low level inversion at 900 mb, which
has been able to sustain clouds thus far with the low level
northeast flow coming off lake huron. However, afternoon mixing and
lowering inversion heights is supporting a north-south clearing
tread over the central great lakes, which should continue into the
early evening hours. Weak shortwave trough passing through the
northern great lakes early this evening, with cold air filtering in
overnight (925/850 mb temps lowering into negative low to mid
numbers over lake huron), which looks to support a redevelopment of
lake huron stratus (although significant differences noted in 925 mb
rh fields between nam/gfs/hiresarw/euro), pushing inland during the
day on Wednesday, as differential heating leads to increasing
northeast flow, and potential low/circulation developing (see
regional gem).

Between clouds and northeast flow off lake huron, looks like there
will be a significant range in MAX temps, from mid 40s across the
far north, to low-mid 50s across the far southwest, farthest removed
from lake huron. Once again, afternoon mixing/boundary layer depths
increasing expected to dissipate low clouds late, but warm advection
mid/high clouds should then be on the increase ahead of our next
storm system. Low level thermal profiles will be borderline as
precipitation overspreads southeast michigan Wednesday night-
Thursday morning, as it looks like a narrow/700 mb fgen band could
break out/develop as good surge of moisture takes place, with 700 mb
specific humidity climbing to 5 g/kg by Thursday morning.

Interestingly, the 12z NAM is one of the driest solutions with the
low level dry air holding into Thursday for most of southeast
michigan. Meanwhile, 12z euro is one of the more aggressive
solutions in terms of qpf, but 1000-850 mb thicknesses all above
1305 m along and south of i-69 corridor, suggesting all rain. Bottom
line, expecting mainly a rain event as surface temps in the 30s
Wednesday night climb into the 40s on Thursday, but a brief period
of snow is possible late Wednesday night-Thursday morning, mainly
north of m-59 if precipitation rates are sufficiently high enough to
wet bulb/saturate the initially above freezing warm layer (2-6 kft
per NAM soundings). If that narrow but potentially intense 700 mb
fgen materializes, a narrow swath of wet snow accumulation is
possible for Thursday morning commute, best shot along and north of
i-69 corrdidor, but local SREF weighted probablistic guidance
suggests rain, with low chance of snow north of i-69.

Low pressure pushing east across northern ohio will bring the
continued chance for rain on Friday as it pushes east into new
england. The chance for rain is expected to diminish through the late
morning and afternoon hours, as a surface high starts to edge in
from the west. The weekend looks to be shaping up to be a nice one,
as cloud cover gradually diminishes and temperatures warm-up slightly
into the mid- 50s for a high. Temperatures are expected to climb
into the upper 50s to lower 60s for the early half of next week as se
winds usher in milder air.

Low pressure pushing NE from texas into the ohio valley Monday into
Tuesday will bring the next chance for rain. There are slight
variations regarding the track of the low, however, long-range
models are showing convergence regarding precipitation Monday night
into Tuesday. Additional rain showers will be possible as a second
low develops from the central plains into michigan Tuesday into
Wednesday. Confidence is much lower regarding this system as the gem
holds off on this potential system until late next week.

Marine
Existing moderate northerly flow /15 to 20 kts/ over the southern
lake huron basin will gradually ease tonight as high pressure starts
to build into the region. Winds will hold from the northeast
through Wednesday as this high settles in. Wind speeds will remain
more modest during this time. Winds will strengthen out of the east
beginning Thursday as the region settles between this high pressure
system and approaching low pressure. A period of moderate winds
will continue through Friday as this low tracks through the ohio
valley. The increased gustiness and prolonged onshore flow will
likely result in small craft advisory conditions during this time.

Gusts over the lake huron openwaters currently expected to peak at
around 30 knots.

Hydrology
Moisture will expand into the region on Thursday as low pressure
tracks into the ohio valley. This will result in widespread
rainfall Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall may linger through
early Friday. At this time, rainfall amounts are forecast to range
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. The potential for locally upwards of
an inch will be possible.

Prev discussion
Issued at 109 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
aviation...

extensive MVFR stratus sustained under a colder and sufficiently
moist north-northeast flow will remain prevalent through the latter
half the daylight period, augmented by diurnal heating. Drier air
working southward across lake huron this afternoon will begin to
encroach on the southeast michigan terminals this evening. This in
combination with the loss of diurnal support should support a
gradually clearing trend tonight. Lower confidence yet on the exact
timing, but recent model guidance continues to favors this process
unfolding 02z-06z. Expanding high pressure will then maintain a
generally clear sky across the lowest 10k ft into Wednesday.

For dtw... MVFR stratus to hold tight through the latter half of the
daylight period. Arrival of drying air will allow skies to
eventually clear tonight, currently timed around midnight.

Maintenance of 7-10 kt wind from a northerly direction will continue
through this evening. Winds speeds ease slightly overnight.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet through this evening. Low after
midnight.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi32 min ENE 8.9 G 12 37°F 1020.3 hPa (+0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi52 min NE 11 G 13 36°F 1021.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi52 min ENE 9.9 G 13 41°F 1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi39 minNNE 810.00 miFair48°F37°F68%1021.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi38 minE 510.00 miFair50°F37°F62%1020.3 hPa
Saginaw, Saginaw County H.W. Browne Airport, MI15 mi56 minN 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F33°F62%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W7W4NW4N8N12NE8NE8NE8NE7NE6NE6N5N6N7NE9NE14NE16NE14NE17NE11NE8N10NE8
1 day agoN5CalmNE5NE5N3NE3CalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW5SW6SW6SW7W7W10W11W12W12SW11W10W8W8
2 days agoE12E12E10NE10E11E10E13E12NE10NE8NE8NE9NE10NE8E7E6E6NE8E8E5NE8NE104N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.