Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:15PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 407 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of snow early this evening. A chance of snow in the late evening and early morning, then a slight chance of snow early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. A chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of flurries early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201811131015;;208325 FZUS53 KDTX 122107 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 407 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-131015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 122355
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
655 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Aviation
Radar echoes on the doorstep continue inching northeast as the low
levels gradually saturate. Onset time of light snow within the next
1-2 hours still looks reasonable with the metro area forecast points
possibly starting as brief light rain. Changeover to snow occur
quickly, however, with nocturnal cooling and dewpoints solidly in
the 20s. Conditions still forecast to steadily deteriorate overnight
as CIGS lower to at least low MVFR and vsby bottom out solidly in
the ifr range. Primary change to the 00z forecast was to further
reduce vsby at kptk where the latest model output, which aligns well
with recent obs, suggests the most consolidated mid-level forcing
will reside as 700-500mb fgen works through the area. Generally
expecting around an inch, possibly closer to 2" at kptk, with a
dusting at kmbs.

For dtw... Light snow, perhaps briefly beginning as light rain or
mostly melted snow will begin to fall around 01z and continue until
10z. Light snow will peak in intensity 04-07z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5kft.

* high for ptype of snow.

Prev discussion
Issued at 357 pm est Mon nov 12 2018
discussion...

a band of snow continues to organize over missouri and southern
illinois during mid afternoon and is expected to develop into lower
michigan tonight. Total snowfall is held in the 1-2 inch range while
the footprint of that accumulation is broadened slightly northward.

Ending time just before the morning peak travel time still looks
good.

Mid afternoon surface analyses indicate the weak cold front or
prefrontal trough extending over southern ontario into the ohio
valley. The reinforcing surge of colder air primary front also
continues to make up ground from the upper midwest on the way to
merging with the prefrontal trough over the eastern great lakes
during the evening. This frontal progression provides a path for a
band of snow to move from the mid mississippi valley into lower
michigan tonight. Not far behind the surge of colder air in the low
levels is the northern stream upper trough advancing across the
upper midwest. This feature is steepening the height gradient across
the great lakes as the southern stream upper jet moves downstream of
the long wave trough axis. The result will be a strengthening of the
jet which produces enhancement of mid level frontogenesis and
corresponding ageostrophic vertical motion response over the central
great lakes. This is expected to continue powering the band of snow,
which already looks respectable in upstream observations, as it
migrates northward from the mid mississippi valley into lower
michigan tonight.

As mentioned above, the QPF axis is broadened a bit farther north
based on the latest model guidance, however without subtracting from
areas near the ohio border just yet. This is due to uncertainty on
the precise zone of activation within the elevated front. It is also
possible that bands of heavier snow will waver in a north to south
fashion and appear striated on radar due to frontal activation at
different times up and down the frontal slope. This areal and
temporal uncertainty also supports holding total snowfall
accumulation in the 1-2 inch range in the absence of greater
persistence of stronger bands. Outside of persistence, the speed of
motion of the pattern is also expected to be a limiting factor for
total accumulation while the stability profile and moisture supply,
along with presence of mesoscale forcing and favorable microphysics,
all remain solid within the mid level frontal zone. A brief period
of lake enhancement is also possible as the wind increases from the
northeast across southern lake huron and then backs toward the
northwest as the system exits eastward prior to sunrise Tuesday.

Expect this timing to bring an end to the snow before the morning
peak travel period.

A broad area of high pressure builds into the great lakes Tuesday and
maintains dry weather and well below normal temperatures through mid
week. A compact, closed southern stream circulation will then lift
out of the lower mississippi valley Thursday interacting with
northern stream energy diving southeast from the upper midwest. These
two features will phase and result in east coast cyclogenesis for
the end of the work week. There continues to remain some uncertainty
regarding the timing of the phasing, with recent model trends
suggesting a slightly slower solution, which would bring
precipitation across much of southeast michigan Thursday night on the
northwest flank of the system. Diurnal timing will drive ptype, but
light snow accumulations certainly look to be in play Thursday night,
especially south and east of flint. Northwest flow in the wake of
the departing east coast low heading into the weekend and early next
week will lead to the potential for lake effect activity. This
activity may possibly be enhanced to a degree by additional pieces of
northern stream energy moving through. Temperatures will continue to
run well below normal through the weekend, and be more reminiscent
of mid-december than mid-november.

Marine...

cyclogenesis will occur along the east coast of the united states
tonight and Tuesday. Cold advection over the great lakes and
organized gradient wind over the long fetch will support an increase
in north winds tonight and Tuesday. The likelihood for gusts in the
25 to 30 knot range will be high, especially Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night. A small craft advisory is now in effect
tonight and Tuesday for the nearshore waters of lake huron from
port austin to port sanilac. Winds will weaken on Wednesday with
high pressure expanding across the ohio valley. The direction will
back to the southwest by Wednesday night, with a southwest gradient
increasing into Thursday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am est Wednesday
for lhz441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Bt irl
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi68 min NW 9.9 G 12 35°F 1024 hPa (+0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi50 min WNW 9.9 G 13 34°F 1024.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi28 min NW 4.1 G 8.9 34°F 1025.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi75 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1025.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi73 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F25°F69%1024.7 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi73 minNW 410.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S5S6S4SW4SW3S4S5SW4W4S3CalmW4W3NW6NW8NW4W6NW6NW3W5NW6NW5
1 day agoW4W4W7W6W4SW5SW5S4S8S7S8S8S8S12
G17
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SW9S11S8S7S6SW7SW7S4
2 days agoW24
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W14W15W13
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SW12SW10SW11SW11SW11W11NW10NW11NW13NW10W8NW8W5W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.