Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:07PM Sunday May 26, 2019 2:53 AM EDT (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 1:35AMMoonset 12:03PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 956 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201905260900;;465833 FZUS53 KDTX 260207 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-260900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260338
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1138 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Aviation
The jet stream overhead will become more zonally orientated
overnight. This will suppress geopotential heights over the central
great lakes causing cold front to sag backdoor through the area
overnight. Persistence of strong s.E. U.S. Ridging will cause the
front to hang up immediately south of metro detroit or the mi oh
state line for Sunday. Latest model trends show increasing
confidence in elevated shower and thunderstorm activity tracking
across the southern half of the cwa. Uncertainty in timing exists,
but for now introduced shower and vcts between 18-23z. Low
confidence exists because of reliance on convective generated
shortwave. However, entrance region dynamics are supportive for
synoptic scale ascent Sunday. Relatively weak easterly winds Sunday,
but potential does exist for sustained winds to exceed 7 knots.

For dtw...VFR skies tonight with low potential for MVFR vsby
restrictions overnight due to br hz.VFR CIGS throughout Sunday with
precipitation remaining south of dtw Sunday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for CIGS of 5kft or less early Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 432 pm edt Sat may 25 2019
discussion...

the window for marginal severe thunderstorms closes as the corridor
of upper level support finishes sliding through SE michigan. This
larger scale forcing was weak but just enough to help erode a modest
mid level cap that was evident earlier in the day. Afternoon
mesoanalysis measured surface based CAPE of 1500-2000 j kg and
mlcape in the 500-1000 j kg range which was strong enough to take
advantage of surface to 6 km bulk shear around 50 kts. Multicell
clusters were slow to intensify in this environment in terms of
lightning flash rate but showed hints of organization in radar
reflectivity depictions. The multicell storm mode initially
presented pockets of damaging wind and severe hail threats where
updrafts could organize with some mid level rotational enhancement.

A trend toward more organized line segments occurred as convection
matured with a larger damaging wind footprint occurring downriver to
the ohio border.

Passage of the subtle upper wave nudges the weak surface cold front
south of the ohio border tonight but not far enough for elevated
portions of the front to clear SE michigan. This maintains a path
for new nocturnal convection to develop over the midwest and move
downstream along near the border. The source region across the
central plains to mid mississippi valley tonight provides low level
jet forced convection into the frontal zone that is further enhanced
and lifted northeast by the entrance region of the upper jet setting
up over central lower michigan toward sunrise. Model depictions of
the low level theta-e gradient point to the south four SE michigan
counties for chance pops late tonight through Sunday with some
potential for northward adjustment depending on the effectiveness of
the entrance region to manipulate the mid level frontal circulation.

A short pause in shower storm potential occurs Sunday night and
Monday morning. The upper jet segment moves eastward and leaves low
amplitude short wave ridging overhead while the next low pressure
system organizes across the plains. This system pulls the front back
north over lower michigan Monday night returning an active period of
showers and thunderstorms to the region through Tuesday.

Marine...

low pressure and the associated cold front moving across the central
great lakes supports scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the
evening mainly across lake st clair and western erie. Marine
conditions otherwise consist of light to moderate wind and minimal
wave impacts outside of thunderstorms as the front stalls south of
lake erie. High pressure brings dry weather to a larger portion of
marine areas Sunday with the possible exception of western lake
erie. Showers and thunderstorms increase again across the central
great lakes Monday night as the next low pressure system moves into
the midwest and pulls the stalled front back northward across the
western great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi54 min W 9.9 G 11 64°F 1011.9 hPa (+1.1)
45163 40 mi34 min ENE 9.7 G 12 55°F 55°F1 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi74 min ENE 5.1 G 12 56°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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SE13
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W7
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S4
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G16
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G18
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G24
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G28
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NW12
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N8
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G9
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi61 minWSW 810.00 miFair68°F63°F84%1012.1 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi59 minWSW 410.00 miOvercast69°F62°F80%1012.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi59 minSW 710.00 miFair68°F62°F83%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7SE8S9S18
G24
S13S5S7S8SW11W14
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G25
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W16
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W15W14SW13SW10SW11SW8SW8SW9SW8
1 day agoNW7NW6NW5W4NW3N7NE7NW4CalmE8E3CalmSE3S4E9SE8--SE5E5E3E7E8E8SE8
2 days agoS4S3SE3S10S7S12SW16SW15
G22
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G36
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G31
W26
G37
W19
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W16
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W7W5W6W6W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.