Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:02PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:57 AM EST (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 3:46PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 356 Am Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Light snow showers until late afternoon...then a chance of light snow showers late in the afternoon. Waves nearly calm.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers early in the evening... Then a slight chance of light snow showers in the late evening and overnight. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201712151615;;919859 FZUS53 KDTX 150856 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-151615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 151048
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
548 am est Fri dec 15 2017

Aviation
Low pressure system over lake superior will bring another period of
active weather across SE mi today and tonight. A swath of light snow
will work across the area this morning with winds turning westerly
and increasing later this morning in its wake. This will bring lake
effect snow showers east from lake mi which may cause rapid
fluctuations in vsby and cigs. A weak cold front will then drop
through the area turning winds to the northwest this evening pushing
the lake effect bands south of the area. All in all it looks like a
lowVFR type day with periods of MVFR or ifr in the heavier showers.

Best chance of the heaviest snow bands will be in the 16-21z
timeframe. mbs will be in the 16-19z window with detroit area
terminals around 18-21z. Snow showers may linger through the night
across the detroit terminals as the front slows its progress.

For dtw... Varying conditions through the period and especially this
afternoon as lake effect snow bands or snow squalls set up over
lower mi. Amendments to timing will be made as the bands start to
present themselves, but best timing looks to be from 18-21z. Vsbys
could drop to ifr or possibly even lifr in the most intense showers.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high confidence in cigs AOB 5000 ft agl through the period.

* low for ceilings below 200 ft or visibilities below 1 2sm this
afternoon in the heaviest snow showers.

Prev discussion
Issued at 423 am est Fri dec 15 2017
discussion...

some perpetuation of very light snow showers flurries ongoing early
this morning, the result of renewed eastward penetration of the lake
michigan moisture plume. This process a response to a period of
backed west southwest low level flow occurring in advance of an
inbound shortwave now translating across northeast wisconsin.

Attendant surface trough leading in the main height falls with this
system, with an extensive region of light snow ongoing tied to both
an increase in mid level ascent and low level convergence. This
forcing on track to lift across southeast michigan during the
daylight period. A noted increase in moisture quality as respectable
synoptic moisture taps the resident lake michigan moisture plume
will yield a period of deep layer saturation with respect to ice.

This improvement in microphysics under the background of increasing
large scale forcing will subsequently support a fairly widespread
region of light snow flurries locally. Highest coverage centered
late morning and early afternoon. Accumulation of less than an inch.

Late day transition toward potential lake effect snow showers
squalls, as large scale support sweeps east and westerly low level
flow deepens. The overlake thermodynamic profile certainly
supportive, yielding a convective depth near 10 kft and upwards of
100 j kg of CAPE within the outward projecting lake bands. The
underlying mean low level wind field will favor some degree of
downstream penetration of this lake convection. This setup favors
multi-bands or segments focusing somewhere between the i-69 and i-94
corridors, but with no clear convergence signal to suggest one
particularly will be more susceptible in this case. Inbound lake
bands likely be quite squally, given expected gusts to 30 mph under
modest late day mixing. This will lead to brief, localized high
intensity snowfall rates, with potential for a quick dusting to an
inch of additional accumulation.

Weak frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of southeast
michigan tonight and Saturday. The combination of weak fgen forcing
and subtle mid level warm air advection will maintain a narrow
ribbon of ascent over or near the region during this time. Mixed
signal across the model spectrum in terms of placement and magnitude
of this forcing, but recent probability guidance suggests at least
modest potential for another period of light snow to develop locally
during this time. Existing boundary will provide a slightly greater
thermal gradient on Saturday, as the resident air mass begins the
slow moderation process under increasing mean thicknesses. Highs
ranging from lower 20s north to lower 30s south.

Pattern of warm air advection will strengthen Saturday night and
Sunday, in advance of a southern stream wave ejecting out of the
plains. High degree of uncertainty yet in terms of the possible
track and strength of this system, which will ultimately determine
potential coverage timing and ptype of any associated precipitation.

Forecast will continue to conservatively call for a rain snow mix at
this stage. Potential for all locations to inch above the freezing
mark on Sunday.

Marine...

high pressure is in place across the southern lakes while the next
clipper begins to track across lake superior. This clipper will
bring gusty southwesterly winds and elevated waves back to lake
huron this afternoon. Though gusts should stay below gale force they
may reach 30 knots this afternoon before turning northwest behind
the departing system this evening. The winds will result in elevated
waves around the tip of the thumb this afternoon through tonight
necessitating a small craft advisory for a portion of the nearshore
waters. Winds decrease and turn out of the east this weekend as a
high pressure system drifts just north of the great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est Saturday
for lhz421-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi58 min S 19 G 21 20°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi53 min SSE 13 G 20 20°F 1009.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi78 min SSW 12 G 19 22°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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NW9
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SW7
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G26
N17
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NW16
G27
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G26
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G29
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G24
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G25
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NW11
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G17
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G17
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G15
NW7
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W6
G12
W7
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W8
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi65 minS 92.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist19°F17°F92%1011.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi63 minS 53.00 miLight Snow20°F17°F89%1009.5 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi63 minS 97.00 miLight Snow21°F17°F86%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W6SW6SW10SW7SW8SW5SW5SW6S5S7S5SW8SW7SW6SW5S7S7S7S7S7S6S7S9
1 day agoS6S6SE7SE9E9E10E13E14E10NE11NE11NE11NE15N13N13N15N15N13N13N12NW9NW7NW6NW4
2 days agoNW15NW15
G28
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NW16NW16
G23
NW16NW10NW13NW11NW8NW7NW7NW5NW6NW3W4W3SW3SW6SE4S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.