Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:31PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:59 AM EDT (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 7:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 955 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely until late afternoon...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201708212115;;724852 FZUS53 KDTX 211355 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-212115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211110
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
710 am edt Mon aug 21 2017

Aviation
As any remaining fog continues to vaporize during early morning,VFR
will consist of increasing cirrus and scattered cumulus as daytime
heating ramps up in the increasingly warm and humid air mass over
the region. Ongoing convection will remain west and south of the
terminal corridor through the morning. The MCS over iowa will follow
storms over indiana tracking to the southeast along the main
instability axis colocated with the surface warm front. It is
possible that a remnant shower could survive into SE michigan during
mid to late afternoon with some support from the MCV likely to
result from the upstream cluster of storms. Afternoon coverage is
expected to be too sparse to include in the terminal forecasts
compared to increasing coverage of showers and storms overnight
ahead of the low pressure system and cold front.

For dtw... VFR will consist of ceiling above 5000 ft during the
morning with some scattered cumulus during the afternoon. There
remains low potential for an isolated shower or storm during the
afternoon after morning activity tracks south of the ohio border.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for a thunderstorm during the afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 336 am edt Mon aug 21 2017
discussion...

main bulk of unsettled weather will take place in the first portion
of the forecast before things dry out. An upper level low,
currently situated over the hudson bay, will rotate down across
ontario through the beginning of the week. A large trough
associated with this low will come across the great lakes region as
an associated surface low forms out over the northern plains and
travels east towards the area. This system will bring in increasing
chances for rain and storms to southeast michigan beginning late
this afternoon through Tuesday. As the surface low begins to form
out to the west today, southerly winds over the area will start to
bring in more moisture resulting in another warm and more humid day.

This humid airmass will be brief as the cold front brings in cooler
and drier air by Wednesday.

Some patchy areas of fog are expected to develop as more moisture
rich air filters in, before fig dissipates shortly after sunrise.

Earlier this morning, there was some thunderstorm activity that
fired over eastern illinois and has been slowly moving
east southeast. This will bring in some cloud debris to portions of
the CWA through the morning. This afternoon there will be a slight
chance for rain and a few isolated storms as surface based activity
may develop as a result of diurnal heating and increasing moisture
advection into the area. Better chances look to be over northern
portions of the CWA before chances increases over the entire cwa
coming into Tuesday. However, this does not bode too well for people
wanting to enjoy the partial solar eclipse over southeast michigan
as there looks to be clouds hanging around, although there is
potential for a few breaks in those clouds.

Chances increase overnight and into Tuesday as a cold front
approaches the area. This front will be in place to the north of the
area today before sagging across the CWA tomorrow. There is also a
thunderstorm complex, currently situated over western iowa, which
will move eastward during the early morning hours. Lots of
uncertainly with this complex and how it holds together. This may
also help in developing some activity over the area later today.

Cold front looks to be pushing eastward across the area starting
early Tuesday morning before quickly moving through by Tuesday
evening. This will provide the focus for rain and storms during the
day. Severe weather looks to stay minimal as instability stays lower
due to cloud cover and early timing. Cooler and drier air then
filters in behind the departing cold front Tuesday night. Quiet
weather then comes back into the picture for the remainder of the
week as high pressure moves in over the area from the northwest.

Temperatures cool off slightly back into the 70s for the second half
of the week before warming slightly back to near 80 this weekend.

Marine...

a weak front will stall over northern to central lake huron while
producing light and variable wind today before moving back northward
tonight ahead of the next low pressure system. Light southerly wind
will continue over the remainder of marine areas until increasing
from the southwest tonight as low pressure deepens while moving into
the straits region. Wind and waves will remain below SCA thresholds
leaving widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
front as the primary marine weather impact before the frontal
passage. Strong northwest wind behind the front will have gusts
reaching 30 knots over the open waters of lake huron Tuesday night
as colder air spills into the region. As it stands now, the wind
pattern will be from the northwest direction enough to keep the
highest waves offshore of the southern lake huron nearshore zones
before veering toward the north and weakening during Wednesday. The
incoming air mass will be cold enough to produce enough instability
over the water for marginal waterspout potential Wednesday into
Thursday.

Hydrology...

a low pressure system developing over the plains states today will
reach the straits region by Tuesday morning and pull a strong cold
front through lower michigan. Moisture humidity will increase
considerably ahead of the front and provide fuel for numerous
showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Tuesday. Basin
average 24 hour rainfall totals are expected to be in the 0.25 to
0.50 inch range with locally higher amounts near 1 inch possible
where multiple thunderstorms occur. The potential for flooding is
expected to be limited by the fast movement of the associated cold
front which is projected to exit eastward by Tuesday evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sp
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi60 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.3)
45163 40 mi40 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 72°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi80 min SSW 4.1 G 6 71°F 1019 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi80 min S 4.1 G 6 79°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi67 minSW 710.00 miFair78°F69°F74%1018.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair80°F67°F67%1018.3 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi66 minSSW 410.00 miFair79°F68°F70%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S9S7SW7SW7SW4S4S3S4S6S8SW3SW4SW4S5SW6SW4SW5SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7SW5
1 day agoNW8NW6W7W7W8W11W9SW5SW5SW4W7W6W7SW5SW5SW6SW5SW5S4SW6SW8SW5SW6SW8
2 days agoW15W15
G20
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G25
W14W13W9W12W8W10W6SW5SW5SW7SW5SW6W7W7W4W6W6W6W7NW10W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.