Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:29PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:27 AM EST (08:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:14PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 957 Pm Est Wed Jan 16 2019
Rest of tonight..Light and variable winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201901171015;;470281 FZUS53 KDTX 170257 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-171015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170457
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1157 pm est Wed jan 16 2019

Aviation
Light wind is quickly veering toward the east as high pressure exits
the central great lakes during the night. Slightly ahead of
schedule, the easterly component of low level wind is already
bringing patches of stratocu from lake erie into the dtw area. The
clouds are borderlineVFR MVFR initially and then gradually lower
farther into MVFR toward sunrise before spreading northward during
the morning and then persisting through afternoon. Light snow moves
in by late afternoon and produces minimal accumulation mainly south
of ptk with only flurries toward fnt and mbs through Thursday
evening.

For dtw... Pockets of stratocu from lake erie got a jump on early
easterly flow development during late evening. Expect intervals of
borderlineVFR MVFR ceiling to fill in and then lower into MVFR
toward sunrise. MVFR ceiling persists through afternoon with
visibility reduced by light snow moving in late and producing about
a half inch of accumulation. The combination of snow and lower
ceiling result in ifr conditions into Thursday evening as low
pressure moves near the ohio border.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight trending to high
toward sunrise through Thursday evening.

* high for snow as precipitation type during afternoon and Thursday
evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 257 pm est Wed jan 16 2019
discussion...

high pressure will drift east across the northern great lakes
tonight, providing a period of decent radiational cooling as wind
speeds drop below 5 mph and mainly clear skies persist much of the
night, especially over northern portions of the forecast area. This
will allow temperatures over the thumb region (and perhaps saginaw
valley) to drop into the single digits. Upper level cloudiness will
increase over the southern forecast area after midnight with the
approach of a weak shortwave disturbance currently crossing the
central plain states. This will keep lows up a bit from m-59 south
where temperatures will only bottom out in the teens (to around 20
from i-94 south).

This shortwave and associated low pressure system will track to the
east rather quickly within largely zonal upper level flow around the
broad base of large upper trough centered over hudson bay. Not much
has changed in thinking about this system as its center passes south
of the area and focuses best (but still rather light) snow banding
to the south. Southern portions of the forecast area will still fall
under some lift along the northern fringe of the wave, but light
snow will likely be confined to areas south of m-59 or so with the
highest amounts (0.5-1.0 inches) near the michigan and ohio state
line. Most of this light snow will fall from late morning into the
early evening Thursday. While lingering lake effect enhanced snow
shower may dot the area into Thursday night as weak cold front
settles through the area in the wake of this low, the weather will
remain generally quiet through the end of the week as the eastern
edge of an arctic high pressure system builds across the northern
and central great lakes region.

Main attention remains focused on a more significant storm system
that will ride along the southern edge of slowly advancing arctic
airmass and clip the area late Friday night on through Saturday. The
main energy that will result in the formation of this winter storm
is strong jet energy currently encroaching on the west coast around
a potent shortwave spinning towards the pacific northwest. By
Friday, lee cyclogenesis will be underway over colorado with the
system then digging a bit further southeast as it interacts with
substantial subtropical jet energy (100+ knots) streaming across
mexico texas on east across the deep south.

While some interaction with the northern stream remains possible,
this jet structure (coupled with a steady surge of additional jet
energy off the pacific ocean) will lead to a very progressive track
to the east before better phasing of these two streams occurs over
the northeast conus. For the immediate area, models vary to some
degree on amount of phasing that will occur in the form a a couple
jet structure before the system is too far east to impact the area.

A trend to a more progressive (hence southern track) solution from
last night has not wobbled back north at all and 12z ECMWF has even
taken it a bit faster to the east with minimal impact on the area.

In general, it appears snowfall from the system will be limited to
several inches and focuses primarily over the southern 1 2 to even
southern 1 3 of the forecast area where 2 to 4 inches of snow may
fall from late Friday night into Saturday evening. Highest totals
approaching 6 inches are not out of the question near the michigan
and ohio state line. However, ecmwf, it should be noted, is no more
than half this model consensus. In addition, very cold northeast
flow between this low and sprawling arctic high pressure to the
north with set up a scenario favorable for some lake effect snow
banding off of lake huron into the thumb region. The impact of this
should be limited as low level flow back to the north northwest
fairly quickly with the passage of this system. Temperatures will
already be rather chilly by Saturday as temperatures hold in the
teens to 20s within the cold northeast flow north of this system.

As snowfall tapers off Saturday night, frigid arctic air will be
ushered into the area by the departing system. 850mb temps will
plunge from around -10c Saturday to -25c by Sunday evening. This
will result in lows in the upper single digits to teens on Saturday
night and little recovery Sunday with highs in the teens. A brisk
wind off lake huron will lead to wind chills below zero all day
Sunday, reaching a minimum in the negative teens for several hours
Monday morning. A few lake effect flurries will be possible in the
thumb Sunday before winds weaken Sunday night.

High pressure will move through the central great lakes on Monday as
the coldest air aloft is pushed to the east. However, highs will
still struggle to break out of the teens given a very cold start to
the day. Lighter winds compared to Sunday will result in wind chills
in the single digits above zero.

Significant spread in long range model solutions exists for the
midweek time frame. Signal is there for recovery of temperatures to
closer to normal values as the arctic air departs, but the
development of a trough in the central CONUS is causing some issue.

The GFS and euro both advertise low pressure developing and moving
up the ohio valley into the eastern great lakes, while the canadian
has a clipper-type low swinging through the region. Timing
differences also exist between each solution, but Tuesday night
currently appears to the be the period with the most overlap. For
now, will keep chance pops for snow in the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday until more consensus in guidance is achieved in the coming
days.

Marine...

conditions across the lakes will improve for this evening and
overnight as high pressure drifts across the region. After going
light and variable tonight, winds will become southerly early
Thursday as we get positioned on the west side of the exiting high.

Gusts will remain largely below 20 knots. A pair of systems then
pass near the great lakes Thursday evening and overnight. One
tracking eastward through the northern ohio valley while the second
tracks across ontario eventually pulling a cold front down through
lake huron by Friday morning. This front will flip winds to the
northwest but still look to remain below 25 knots.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Dg tf
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi88 min NE 6 G 8 19°F 1026.1 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi48 min N 5.1 G 6 18°F 1026.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi48 min N 2.9 G 5.1 12°F 1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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G27
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SW4
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi35 minE 310.00 miFair16°F10°F80%1028.1 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair14°F9°F81%1026.7 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair14°F8°F79%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W13NW13N16
G23
N11NW12N14N12N10N6N6NW7NW6N7N4CalmN4N4N6N8NE5NE5E4E3
1 day agoSW9SW10SW8SW8SW8SW9SW11--SW12SW12SW13SW11SW12
G18
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G26
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SW12SW10
2 days agoW4W3SW3W3W5CalmSW5W7W10SW10W11W13W10W7SW8SW8SW7SW6SW6SW6SW7SW7SW6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.